Raleigh, N.C. – Despite steady increases in name recognition for Republican challenger Josh Mandel, incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to hold onto a modest lead in his first re-election bid.
Brown’s lead has dipped 1 point to 7 points (46-39) since mid-May, despite an 8-point increase in name recognition for Mandel during that same period. Name recognition for Mandel, current state treasurer, is at 63%, up from 39% in February and 55% in mid-May, when the last statewide Senate election poll was conducted.Mandel’s name is more recognized, but not more popular. Mandel’s unfavorability rating has increased 9 points since May and his favorability rating has fallen 1 point since May.
All of the negative advertising in the Ohio Senate race is having the effect of making both candidates unpopular with voters in the state. A 42% plurality now disapprove of Sherrod Brown's job performance to only 38% who approve, a net 9 point decline since early May when he was on positive ground at 40/35. But Josh Mandel has seen a similar downward spiral in his numbers- only 24% of voters see him favorably to 39% with a negative opinion, down a net 10 points from 25/30 last month.
The net effect of all this on the horse race? Not much. Brown leads Mandel 46-39, numbers little changed from a 45-37 spread a month ago. Brown's ahead 43-34 with independents, and he's winning over 15% of Republicans while Mandel gets only 12% of Democrats. There are more undecided Republicans than Democrats, so Mandel may have more room for growth than Brown. But for now Brown continues to have the upper hand.
John Kasich remains unpopular, with 40% of voters approving of him to 48% who disapprove. But those are actually the best numbers PPP has found for him since he took office. His numbers have improved a net 16 points since the Senate Bill 5 repeal in early November when he was at 33/57. He's steady with Republicans but has seen his standing get better with both Democrats and independents.
Raleigh, N.C. – As Ohioans have become a little more familiar with Republican Senate nominee Josh Mandel, his deficit to freshman Sen. Sherrod Brown has closed a little. When PPP last surveyed the state a little over three months ago, only 39% had an opinion of their new state treasurer, and they fell at 14% favorable and 25% unfavorable. That has now risen to 55% (25-30). All of the positive movement comes with Republicans (20-15 to 39-14) and independents (13-26 to 23-28), while Democrats have soured even more on him (10-33 to 12-47). Brown’s approval numbers have slipped a little as well, from 42% approving and 34% disapproving to 40-35.
Because of this shift towards a more positive view of Mandel and a slightly more negative one of Brown, the GOP candidate now only trails Brown by eight points (45-37), an improvement over his 11-point disadvantage in January (47-36). Brown leads by 13 (42-29) with independents. Both candidates have room to consolidate their bases: Brown gets 77% of Democrats and Mandel 70% of Republicans.
PPP's newest poll on the Ohio Senate race finds things tightening up a little bit. Sherrod Brown continues to lead Josh Mandel, but the 8 point margin at 45-37 is down from 11 points when we last polled the state in late January.
One reason for the closing may be that Mandel has become much better known over the last three months. His name recognition is now 55%, up from 39% on our previous poll of the state. Brown continues to have ok but unspectacular approval numbers with 40% of voters approving of him to 35% who disapprove.
The most encouraging sign for Brown in the poll is probably his 13 point lead with independents. But there continue to be more undecided Republicans (19%) than there are Democrats (14%) so although Brown certainly remains the favorite there's reason to believe the race could continue to get closer.
Raleigh, N.C. – Like his counterpart in Wisconsin, Ohio’s Gov. John Kasich has become only more unpopular over the last few months, as the opposition to his limitations on collective bargaining has only intensified. Already at 35-54 approval-disapproval in March, Kasich has slipped a bit to 33-56, tying him with Florida’s Rick Scott for the most reviled governor in the country. Unlike Scott Walker, Kasich’s agenda has not at all rallied his base. He has plummeted with Republicans, from an already somewhat weak 71-18 approval margin two months ago to an abysmal 58-28 now.
-There's been a lot of discussion about the possibility of Dennis Kucinich moving to Washington and running for office there next year but there's just one little problem- voters there don't want him to, not even Democrats. Part of that's because he's not popular in the state with only 19% of voters rating him favorable to 28% with a negative opinion of him. But the numbers on a potential candidacy for him are worse than the favorability spread- only 12% think he should seek office in the state next year to 39% opposed to the concept.
Even among Democrats, who like Kucinich by a 33/19 margin, just 22% think he should run there next year to 35% who dissent. It really doesn't matter whether Kucinich moves to Washington or not, he's not going to get elected there next year.
-Someone else who's not going to get elected in Washington, next year or probably ever? That would be Dino Rossi. 58% of voters in the state say he should not seek office again in the future to only 32% who think he should put his name in the hat again. 64% of Republicans say they'd like him to make another bid, but Democrats are a lot stronger in their opposition to the concept at 88% and independents split 56/33 against another Rossi bid as well. You could say he's worn out his welcome but his losing streak makes it clear he wasn't that welcome in the first place.
-By a 47/46 margin Washington voters continue to say that they oppose President Obama's health care plan from last year. This is the first time in eons we've polled on health care but we did here because Republican Attorney General and likely 2012 Gubernatorial nominee Rob McKenna joined in the federal health care lawsuit last year. There's been some thought that action could really hurt his prospects next year but these numbers suggest that's not the case- his actions on health care probably won't really help or hinder him given how closely divided the state's voters are on the issue.
-Washington voters narrowly think same sex marriage should be legal, by a 48/46 margin. As everywhere this is very much a generational issue. Voters under 30 are strongly supportive of gay marriage at 57/39 while senior citizens are opposed to it by a 49/39 spread. Middle aged voters fall in between but slightly on the side of gay marriage being legal. The divide along age lines means support for gay marriage in the state will just keep on continuing to grow.
-Finally Patty Murray's approval numbers in the wake of her reelection are far better than we ever found them last year. 50% of voters approve of her to 42% who disapprove.
Raleigh, N.C. – Patty Murray narrowly defeated Dino Rossi for re-election last fall. Just before the election, PPP found that only 44% of the likely voters in that election approved of her performance in office, while 51% disapproved. Half a year later, she has rebounded significantly in voters’ eyes, sporting a 50-42 approval-disapproval margin, a 15-point swing from last fall. This puts her at not quite as good a standing as her junior colleague Maria Cantwell’s 50-36, but still at just below the median among the 80 sitting senators on which PPP has polled since the beginning of 2010.
If you want to get an idea of how bad Donald Trump's political standing was by the end of his abortive run for President consider this- a national poll we conducted last week found that he would trail Dennis Kucinich 40-36 in a hypothetical contest.
On that poll we found that there were more Republicans (15%) willing to vote for Kucinich than there were Democrats (14%) willing to vote for Trump. And Kucinich took independents by a 40-38 margin as well.
Trump was already unpopular when he started testing the Presidential waters. In February we found that his favorability was a -29 spread at 27/56. But he managed to make himself more unpopular over the course of the last three months and in our final national poll including him he was at a -41 spread at 24/65. He did improve his popularity with Republicans over the course of that time from -22 (31/53) to -8 (39/47). But with Democrats he cratered from -40 (21/61) to -70 (11/81) and he had a dramatic decline with independents as well from -22 (30/52) to -40 (26/66).
For all of that Trump is not the weakest Republican in the two hypothetical match ups we tested with Dennis Kucinich. Kucinich's lead over Sarah Palin if they were to face off would be 43-36. In that scenario Kucinich gets 16% of Republicans to Palin's 12% of Democrats and leads her by 10 points with independents at 42-32.
Obviously none of these match ups will ever happen but we were trying to get a gauge of just how weak these two Republican contenders would be and I think the fact that voters would take Dennis Kucinich over either of them gives us our answer.
Raleigh, N.C. – Dennis Kucinich may be a Congressman without a district soon, but there is one race he would surely win: president. That is, in a Bizarro world in which Barack Obama were not renominated and the strangely more realistic scenario in which Sarah Palin or Donald Trump were crowned by the GOP.
Voters think so little of Palin and Trump that they would even prefer one of the most outspoken liberals in the country in the White House. More than a fifth are undecided either because they know so little about Kucinich or they cannot make up their minds in such an unlikely situation. But Kucinich would top Palin, 43-36, and Trump, 40-36.
-John Boehner's national poll numbers have already turned negative and on the home front they aren't much better. 37% of voters in Ohio think he's doing a good job as House Speaker to 38% who disapprove. He's popular with Republicans (70% approval) but Democrats aren't giving him any home state bonus (just 10% approve) and independents split against him by a 40/35 margin as well. Although his numbers certainly leave something to be desired they are at least better than Nancy Pelosi's were in California the last time we checked- in September 38% of voters there said they had a favorable opinion of her while 48% rated her negatively.
-A majority of voters are withholding any judgment on Rob Portman's performance in the US Senate so far but he's on slightly positive ground with voters who do have an opinion. 25% approve, 22% disapprove, and 53% have no opinion. It's hard to read too much positive or negative into the numbers when there's so much ambivalence but given how bad the numbers for John Kasich and all of the Republican Presidential contenders are in Ohio Portman's looking just fine- keeping a low profile might be the way to go while things are so turbulent in the state.
-One politician Ohio voters have much stronger opinions about than Portman- and not in a good way- is Dennis Kucinich. 27% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 40% with a negative one. Republicans are considerably more unified in their negative feelings toward him (63%) than Democrats are in their positive ones (44%) and independents split against him by a 40/26 margin as well. I guess we'll just have to live without that 2014 Kucinich Governor campaign.
-Jim Tressel is still overwhelmingly popular with the Ohio State fan base but it seems likely that his numbers have taken a hit in the wake of the recent scandals surrounding the program. 58% of voters describing themselves as Buckeye fans have a favorable opinion of him to 13% with a negative one. This is the first time we've ever polled on Tressel so we don't have anything to compare it to but college basketball coaches in similarly successful programs like Mike Krzyzewski (77/8 favorability) and Roy Williams (64/3 favorability) have better numbers with their fan bases. I'd imagine Tressel would have been more at those sorts of levels before this controversy. Among all voters in the state and not just OSU fans Tressel's favorability is 43/17.
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