Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are. Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.
Americans generally have a favorable view of most states. Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27). Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).
Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are. Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.
As the year comes to a close I thought it might be interesting to relive the five polls we did that surprised me the most over the course of what was an election cycle full of surprises:
5) Arkansas Senate Poll, January 29th-31st. If you'd asked me at this time last year I would have told you I thought Arkansas would be among the 2 or 3 states we polled most often in 2010. Blanche Lincoln had horrible approval numbers throughout the last part of 2009 but she also had a weak Republican candidate field going against her so even though she was trailing in a lot of polling it wasn't by insurmountable margins and it seemed like she might be able to make a comeback once the health care issue that was killing her was in the rear view mirror. Then John Boozman started showing interest in the race and we were first out of the gate in polling that match up. I figured Lincoln would be in a lot of trouble, down 10 or so. She was down by 23! We never polled the race again the rest of the year and it never changed much from that initial benchmark. She lost by 21.
4) Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Poll, December 18th-21st 2009. In retrospect this poll was one of the biggest early signs that it was going to be a very rough cycle for establishment Republicans. It seems hard to believe after blowout victories in both the primary and general elections but for most of 2009 national political observers saw Rand Paul's Senate campaign as an amusing sidebar, giving its viability little credence with the Republican regulars in the state lined up behind Trey Grayson. Then we polled it and not only did we find Grayson trailing- we found Grayson trailing by 19 points! Whatever happened over the last half of 2009 to put Grayson so far behind he never recovered from- every single independent poll for the whole rest of the campaign found him down by double digits.
3) Florida Republican Senate Primary Poll, March 5th-8th. It was already abundantly clear that Charlie Crist was in deep, deep trouble before we took our first stab at the race- a Rasmussen poll the month before had shown him down by 18 points. But it was still pretty shocking to find him down by 32 points at 60-28. It took about five minutes for the Crist campaign to get out a release attacking the poll as 'agenda driven' and designed to help the Rubio campaign. The Florida Times-Union was so shocked that they commissioned their own snap poll on the race...and found Crist down by 34. At that point it started to be seen as only a matter of time before Crist threw in the towel on being the Republican nominee and he did late the next month.
2) Delaware Republican Senate Primary Poll, September 11th-12th. We did a Delaware Senate poll in mid-August and didn't even bother taking a look at the primary race. That's how far fetched the thought of Mike Castle losing the primary was at that point. After Joe Miller's shocking victory in the Alaska Senate GOP contest we decided we would do a Delaware primary poll the weekend before the election just to cover our bases. Still, when even the Tea Party Express' own polling leaked the week before the election showed O'Donnell behind we didn't expect to see much. But after starting the poll Saturday morning of that weekend, it was clear by the middle of Saturday afternoon that at worst the race was 50/50 and that it was more likely O'Donnell was ahead. She was up 3 when we tallied it up and I was probably more nervous for the 48 hours between releasing that poll and the election results coming in than I was at any other point in the cycle because the result was so surprising and there was no other polling company backing us up. If we were wrong there wasn't going to be anyone to break our fall. But fortunately we weren't- it really seemed possible at the time that 30,000 Republicans in Delaware were going to cost their party control of the Senate although Democrats winning most of the toss up races kept that from being the case in the end.
1) Massachusetts Senate Poll, January 7th-9th. The final week of 2009 we had a vote on where we should do our first poll of 2010 and Massachusetts was one of the options. It finished third behind Connecticut and Alabama. That's how off the radar Scott Brown's chances were just two and a half weeks before the special election. Then Rasmussen came out with a poll showing Brown behind by only 9 that got people paying attention, but still it's not too often that someone manages to go from a 9 point lead to losing in a two week span, especially if it's not a primary. So we polled it mostly just to confirm the new conventional wisdom that Democrats needed to not take it for granted, but that they didn't have that much to worry about. I remember we started the poll up during the BCS Championship game and it was clear by about halftime that Democrats had a whole lot more to worry about in Massachusetts than just about anyone realized. When we put the poll out Saturday night Brown was up by 1 and his momentum carried on to a 5 point victory over the final week.
It's been a great year for PPP, thanks to everyone for their support and Happy New Year!
As Ted Kaufman leaves office today he does so with a special distinction in our polling: the most popular of the appointed Senators who did not not seek election this year.
When we last polled Delaware in mid-September Kaufman's approval rating was a very respectable 38/33 spread, certainly ranking him above average for a Senator in this political climate.
All the rest of the appointed Senators posted negative approval numbers. For Carte Goodwin and George LeMieux the main response to their service was ambivalence. 61% of voters on our final West Virginia poll expressed no opinion about Goodwin with those who did have one breaking down 17% favorably and 22% unfavorably. LeMieux similarly made no impression on 61% of voters but the ones who did express an opinion about him were quite negative with only 11% approving of him and 28% disapproving.
LeMieux is frequently mentioned as a possible challenger to Bill Nelson in 2012 but I can't imagine he's going to be able to do much field clearing. Even with Republican voters his reviews are pretty negative at 14% approving and 24% disapproving. His year of free media simply has not done much to help him build up a positive image with Florida voters. He doesn't look formidable at all.
Bringing up the basement by a wide margin among the appointed Senators is Roland Burris who 57% of voters disapprove of with only 18% approving. The circumstances under which Burris was appointed made him unpopular from the start- he posted a 17/62 approval spread in April of 2009 shortly after being elected- and he never improved on those numbers.
Republicans in Congress are incredibly unpopular. And many of the party's Senate nominees across the country are too. Yet the party is still headed for a big election year. The reason? About 20% of the country is unhappy with both sides- and they're leaning strongly toward the GOP.
Our last national poll found that 19% of voters both disapproved of Barack Obama's job performance and disapproved of the Republicans in Congress. Those folks are planning to vote Republican for Congress by a 76-6 margin this fall. They may not be happy with either side but when it comes to deciding how to vote in November their feelings against Obama are a much more decisive factor than their feelings against Republicans in general.
It's a similar story when we look at Senate races across the country. Voters in Illinois who dislike both Obama and Mark Kirk plan to vote for a Kirk by a 47-9 margin. In California Carly Fiorina's up 69-13 with folks who don't like her or the President. Kelly Ayotte's advantage in New Hampshire is 56-19 with voters who mutually dislike her and Obama. And in older polls we found Sharron Angle up 40-32 in July and Ken Buck up 61-17 in August with voters who meet that description.
Pretty much across the board voters' ill will toward Obama outweighs their ill will toward the Republican Senate candidates. But there is one exception- in Delaware Chris Coons leads Christine O'Donnell 51-21 with folks who don't like her or Obama- I guess there's only so far some voters are willing to go.
The voters who hate everything and everyone are a key part of the electorate this year- and their support of the GOP is a big part of why the party's headed for a big victory.
Raleigh, N.C. – Mike Castle’s loss in the Republican U.S. Senate primary last night has now made Delaware Democrats’ biggest and perhaps most surprising hope in what is otherwise shaping up to be a bad year for them. In PPP’s first test of the contest among likely voters, Democrat John Carney leads 48-37 over Tuesday’s Republican victor, Tea Party favorite Glen Urquhart, for the state’s at-large Congressional seat. In August’s measure of registered voters, Carney was on top, 48-30, with the movement toward Urquhart corresponding to the seven- to nine-point pro-Republican enthusiasm gap compared to 2008’s turnout.
Unlike in the Senate matchup, there would have been little to no difference had establishment pick Michele Rollins gone on to face Carney. She would have started out with a 47-37 deficit. Urquhart is actually slightly better liked than Rollins, with a 30-29 favorability mark to her 29-33, though Carney tops all three at 34-24.
When Mike Castle decided to run for the Senate it seemed like a bad news day for Democrats but it's actually turned out to be one of the better things that's happened for them this cycle. With Castle's defeat in the primary Tuesday Democrats will likely hold onto the Senate seat, and our polling continues to find John Carney with a double digit lead in his bid to flip the state's House seat to the Democratic column.
Carney begins the general election with a 48-37 lead over Glen Urquhart. In contrast to most races across the country Carney has a more unified base, winning 75% of Democrats to Urquhart's 66% of Republicans. Urquhart does have a 38-36 lead with independents but that's not nearly as large as most GOP candidates across the country have and certainly not as large as he needs to win a strongly Democratic leaning state like Delaware.
These numbers do represent a tightening since PPP's last poll of the race in August which found Carney ahead 48-30. What's important to note about those numbers is that Carney has remained steady. Urquhart is just increasing his support as he becomes better known and locks up more of the Republican base.
Carney has solid favorability numbers with 34% seeing him favorably and 24% unfavorably. Interestingly Urquhart has pulled even with Carney in name recognition and he's seen positively by 30% of voters and negatively by 29%.
Although it was commonly believed Urquhart would be a weaker general election candidate than primary opponent Michele Rollins, who he narrowly edged, she trailed Carney 47-37 in a head to head suggesting there was negligible difference in the November viability of the two Republicans.
Democrats aren't going to pick up much this fall but this seat continues to look like it will go into their column.
Raleigh, N.C. – There is no doubt Delaware Republicans picked the weakest candidate to match up against Democrat Chris Coons for U.S. Senate. Coons enters the short general election contest with a 50-34 lead over Christine O’Donnell. Had longtime Congressman Mike Castle won last night, he would have a 45-35 lead over Coons. Coons performs 26 points better against O’Donnell than against Castle. Castle has been elected statewide 12 times, but O’Donnell has lost bids for each of Delaware’s Senate seats by margins of 30 and 41 points, in stronger Democratic years 2006 and 2008.
Republicans more than likely cost themselves a Senate seat last night. Chris Coons begins the general election in Delaware with a 50-34 lead over Christine O'Donnell. Mike Castle would have led Coons by a 45-35 margin.
While O'Donnell may have ingratiated herself to Delaware's small group of registered Republicans over the last month she's turned off everyone else. An August Daily Kos/PPP poll in Delaware found her favorability rating at 23/33. It's now 29/50.
If Castle had won he would have received more Democratic support than any other Republican Senate candidate in the country. Now our polling suggests with O'Donnell's victory that Coons will win more Republicans than any other Democratic Senate candidate in the country. That's because of a general unwillingness to support O'Donnell from Castle's moderate base- folks from the centrist wing of the GOP are planning to support Coons 54-31. Overall he takes a full 25% of the GOP vote while also largely consolidating the Democratic base for a 72-13 lead on that front. He also has a narrow 42-36 advantage with independents, a group Democrats are losing with most everywhere else.
Only 31% of voters in the state think O'Donnell's fit to hold public office while 49% think that she is not. Even with Republicans in the state less than half at 48% believe that she is. That may seem inconsistent with her victory last night but keep in mind that our general election poll includes GOP voters who were not planning to vote in yesterday's primary. Only 33% of independents and 16% of Democrats believe O'Donnell's fit.
Coons himself is largely undefined. 36% of voters don't know enough about him to have formed an opinion and those who have split pretty evenly with 31% seeing him favorably and 33% unfavorably. But given O'Donnell's considerable baggage he will probably win this race as long as he can avoid making any serious mistakes in the next 7 weeks. And his personal numbers are likely to go up as voters in the state shift their attention to the general election and begin getting to know him better.
The result of the Delaware primary last night is the best thing that has happened to Democrats electorally since election night in 2008.
One thing that really struck me in our Delaware polling numbers was that on a lot of measures Mike Castle actually appeared to be in even worse shape than Lisa Murkowski:
-55% of primary voters said they thought Castle was too liberal. For Murkowski on our post primary poll in Alaska that was only 47%.
-Castle's favorability was a negative 43/47. On the similar although not identical measure of approval we still found Murkowski on slightly positive ground even after her primary loss at 48/46.
-35% of primary voters in Delaware said they were positively influenced by a Sarah Palin endorsement, only 26% said the same in Alaska.
-25% of Delaware Republicans say they consider themselves to be members of the Tea Party movement. Only 18% said the same in Alaska.
A lot of these differences can probably be chalked up to Delaware having a closed primary and Alaska an open one. 64% of primary voters in Delaware identified themselves as conservatives to 59% in Alaska.
There's a pretty wide range of outcomes that would not surprise me tomorrow given the difficulties of polling a Republican electorate in a small blue state. It would be no shock if Castle hangs on to win but when you look at the internal numbers and compare them to Murkowski I also wouldn't be all that surprised if O'Donnell ends up winning by 10.
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