Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP's final polls in Massachusetts and Connecticut find that Democrats are
likely to pick up the Senate seat in the former and hold onto the open seat in
the latter. Elizabeth Warren leads Scott Brown 52-46 in the Massachusetts
contest, while Chris Murphy has a 52-43 advantage over Linda McMahon in
Connecticut.
Scott Brown has a 52/36 approval rating. Usually Senators with those kinds
of approval numbers are safe for reelection. But Warren needed to do 2 things
in this campaign: solidify the Democratic vote behind her and reduce Brown's
advantage with independents. She's succeeded on both of those fronts. 84% of
Democrats are planning to vote for her, only slightly less than the 88% of
Republicans Brown's winning. And Warren's deficit with independents is only 21
points at 59-38. Our final poll of the 2010 Massachusetts Senate special
election found Brown defeating Martha Coakley 64-32 with them so Warren's
really made up a fair amount of ground on that front.
PPP's final polls in Massachusetts and Connecticut find that Democrats are likely to pick up the Senate seat in the former and hold onto the open seat in the latter. Elizabeth Warren leads Scott Brown 52-46 in the Massachusetts contest, while Chris Murphy has a 52-43 advantage over Linda McMahon in Connecticut.
Scott Brown has a 52/36 approval rating. Usually Senators with those kinds of approval numbers are safe for reelection. But Warren needed to do 2 things in this campaign: solidify the Democratic vote behind her and reduce Brown's advantage with independents. She's succeeded on both of those fronts. 84% of Democrats are planning to vote for her, only slightly less than the 88% of Republicans Brown's winning. And Warren's deficit with independents is only 21 points at 59-38. In a vacuum that might sound pretty bad, but our final poll of the 2010 Massachusetts Senate special election found Brown defeating Martha Coakley 64-32 with them so Warren's really made up a fair amount of ground on that front.
In Connecticut our final poll finds Chris Murphy with his largest lead all year at 9 points. He's increased his advantage by 5 points since two weeks ago when he was ahead just 48-44. Linda McMahon, already unpopular, has just become more disliked by voters in the state over the last couple weeks. Only 37% have a favorable opinion of her to 52% with an unfavorable one. For a Republican to win in Connecticut requires their party to be strongly unified around them. But McMahon is losing 19% of the GOP vote to Murphy, a good deal more than the 14% of Democrats she's picking up. McMahon is also performing terribly with women, trailing Murphy 55-39 with them.
Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's newest poll of the Connecticut
Senate race finds Democrat Chris Murphy expanding his lead to 6 points over
Republican foe Linda McMahon, 48-42. Last month he led 48-44.
There's no doubt Murphy's image has taken a hit over the course of this
campaign. Only 36% of voters say they have a favorable opinion of him to 44%
with a negative one. That's down a net 15 points from July when he was at a
38/31 favorability spread. But voters aren't warming up to McMahon either- she
has a 42% favorability rating with 49% of voters seeing her unfavorably,
numbers basically identical to 42/48 a couple months ago. McMahon's done a good
job of hitting Murphy but she hasn't done anything to prop herself up and in a
race between an unpopular Democratic candidate and an unpopular Republican
candidate in a state like Connecticut the Democrat is going to win.
PPP's newest poll of the Connecticut Senate race finds Democrat Chris Murphy expanding his lead to 6 points over Republican foe Linda McMahon, 48-42. Last month he led 48-44.
There's no doubt Murphy's image has taken a hit over the course of this campaign. Only 36% of voters say they have a favorable opinion of him to 44% with a negative one. That's down a net 15 points from July when he was at a 38/31 favorability spread. But voters aren't warming up to McMahon either- she has a 42% favorability rating with 49% of voters seeing her unfavorably, numbers basically identical to 42/48 a couple months ago. McMahon's done a good job of hitting Murphy but she hasn't done anything to prop herself up and in a race between an unpopular Democratic candidate and an unpopular Republican candidate in a state like Connecticut the Democrat is going to win.
The key question we asked on this poll was probably whether people wanted Democrats or Republicans in control of the Senate, and by a 50/38 margin folks say they want the Democrats in charge. That reality should help Murphy along as well.
McMahon actually leads the race with independents, 51-38. Her problem is that 20% of Republicans are supporting Murphy over her, similar to what we found her losing to Richard Blumenthal in 2010. You simply can't win as a Republican in Connecticut without holding your party base in line to a greater extent than that, but many GOP voters continue to find her unacceptable.
PPP is best known for putting out highly accurate polling on key political races across the country, but we also do affordable private research for candidates and organizations. Why pay tens of thousands of dollars for a survey when one of the most reliable companies in the nation can do it for less?"
