Public Policy Polling

Clinton potentially competitive in Alaska

Raleigh, N.C. – Add Alaska to the list of states where Hillary Clinton, at least for now, might be competitive if she runs for President in 2016. Our new poll there finds just one point separating Clinton from two of the leading potential candidates for the GOP- she leads Marco Rubio 44/43 and trails Chris Christie 43/42. Clinton has a 47/45 favorability rating in the state, including 53/38 with independents.

It's not a match up likely to occur but Clinton would destroy Sarah Palin in a hypothetical match up in the state, 53/37, including a 62/25 lead with independents. There's no appetite among Alaskans for Palin 2016- only 16% think she should run to 78% who think she should not, and even among Republicans just 18% would like to see her make a bid.

To put into perspective just how poorly thought of Palin is in Alaska now, consider this: Congress has an 8% favorability rating in the state. But asked whether they have a higher opinion of Congress or Palin, Alaskans pick Congress by a 50/34 margin.

Clinton could be competitive in Alaska

Add Alaska to the list of states where Hillary Clinton, at least for now, might be competitive if she runs for President in 2016. Our new poll there finds just one point separating Clinton from two of the leading potential candidates for the GOP- she leads Marco Rubio 44/43 and trails Chris Christie 43/42. Clinton has a 47/45 favorability rating in the state, including 53/38 with independents.

It's not a match up likely to occur but Clinton would destroy Sarah Palin in a hypothetical match up in the state, 53/37, including a 62/25 lead with independents. There's no appetite among Alaskans for Palin 2016- only 16% think she should run to 78% who think she should not, and even among Republicans just 18% would like to see her make a bid.

To put into perspective just how poorly thought of Palin is in Alaska now, consider this: Congress has an 8% favorability rating in the state. But asked whether they have a higher opinion of Congress or Palin, Alaskans pick Congress by a 50/34 margin.

Other notes from Alaska:

Begich and Parnell looking strong for 2014 re-election bids

Raleigh, N.C. – Democrat Mark Begich and Republican Sean Parnell both appear to be in strong positions for re-election in their 2014 Alaska Senate and governor’s races respectively, according to PPP’s latest poll.

Voters narrowly approve of Parnell’s job performance 46% to 44%, and he is much better known than his potential Democratic challengers. Parnell leads Ethan Berkowitz by 9 points (50/41), Scott McAdams by 18 points (52/34), Mike Navarre by 22 points (51/29) and Joe Paskvan by 26 points (51/25). Only 34% want Parnell to run for governor while 10% want him to run for Senate and 49% don’t want him to run for either office.

Voters approve of Begich’s job performance by a wider margin, 49% to 39%, and independents approve of Begich 54% to 32%. Begich also gets approval from 24% of Republican voters. If Parnell ran for Senate against Begich, the two would be tied at 48% each. Otherwise Begich leads Dan Sullivan by 6 points (47/41), Mead Treadwell by 8 points (47/39) and Sarah Palin by 16 points (54/38).

Clinton, Rubio lead primary contests

Raleigh, N.C. – New PPP polls both nationally and in Iowa find Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton leading the way for their party's respective 2016 nominations, with Clinton leading Rubio by 8 points in a hypothetical head to head.

For the third month in a row in our national 2016 GOP tracking Rubio leads the way. He's at 22% to 15% for Paul Ryan, 13% each for Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, 11% for Mike Huckabee, 10% for Rand Paul, 4% for Bobby Jindal, 3% for Rick Perry, and 1% for Susana Martinez. Rubio continues to lead based on his appeal to the furthest right segment of the Republican Party- he's at 28% with 'very conservative' voters to 15% for Huckabee and 14% for Ryan.

Rubio's tied for the lead in Iowa as well. It's a closely contested picture there with he and Huckabee both at 16%, followed by Paul at 15%, Bush at 14%, Christie at 12%, Ryan at 10%, Martinez at 4%, and Jindal and Perry at 3%. Rubio leads with conservatives there as well but polls so far behind Huckabee with moderates that it's just a tie overall.

Looking ahead to 2016 nationally and in Iowa

New PPP polls both nationally and in Iowa find Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton leading the way for their party's respective 2016 nominations, with Clinton leading Rubio by 8 points in a hypothetical head to head.

For the third month in a row in our national 2016 GOP tracking Rubio leads the way. He's at 22% to 15% for Paul Ryan, 13% each for Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, 11% for Mike Huckabee, 10% for Rand Paul, 4% for Bobby Jindal, 3% for Rick Perry, and 1% for Susana Martinez. Rubio continues to lead based on his appeal to the furthest right segment of the Republican Party- he's at 28% with 'very conservative' voters to 15% for Huckabee and 14% for Ryan.

Rubio's tied for the lead in Iowa as well. It's a closely contested picture there with he and Huckabee both at 16%, followed by Paul at 15%, Bush at 14%, Christie at 12%, Ryan at 10%, Martinez at 4%, and Jindal and Perry at 3%. Rubio leads with conservatives there as well but polls so far behind Huckabee with moderates that it's just a tie overall. One other interesting finding in Iowa is that Chris Christie has only a 36/33 favorability rating with Republicans in the state, including 36/38 with 'very conservative' ones.

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton continues to dominate both nationally and in Iowa. Nationally she's at 58% to 19% for Joe Biden, 8% for Elizabeth Warren, and 3% for Andrew Cuomo. She's even stronger in Iowa at 68% to 21% for Biden with no one else over 2%. Her favorability rating with Democrats there is 90/5.

Clinton could win Texas in 2016

Raleigh, N.C. – Predictions about Texas eventually becoming a presidential battleground state could get fast-tracked if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee in 2016, according to PPP’s latest poll.

The results are within the margin of error, but Clinton leads Marco Rubio 46% to 45%, Chris Christie 45% to 43% and Rick Perry 50% to 42%. She has a +7 favorability rating (50/43) with Texas voters and strong support among moderate voters—72% view her favorably, and she crushes her potential GOP opponents among this voting group.

“If Clinton is the 2016 nominee, she could conceivably expand the electoral map for Democrats in deep-red Texas,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

Clinton could win Texas

PPP's newest Texas poll finds that, at least for now, Hillary Clinton could win the state in 2016. This follows on the heels of a survey last month where we found she would have a decent chance of winning Kentucky if she makes another White House bid.

50% of Texas voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton to 43% with a negative one. She's universally well liked by Democrats (91/5) and a majority of independents view her positively as well (52/41). She holds narrow leads in hypothetical match ups with Marco Rubio (46/45) and Chris Christie (45/43) and a wider one in a contest against Rick Perry (50/42).

Speaking of Perry, Republicans in Texas have no interest in seeing him run for President again in 2016. Only 19% think he should make a bid to 70% who think he should not, and he ties for 7th in a 9 candidate field that we tested. Leading the way is Marco Rubio at 21%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 14%, Rand Paul at 13%, Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan at 11%, Chris Christie at 9%, Perry and Bobby Jindal at 4%, and Susana Martinez at 2%.

Other notes from Texas:

-Texas mirrors many southern states in that it remains opposed to gay marriage, but does support same sex couples having legal rights in the form of civil unions. Only 35% of voters in the state support gay marriage to 55% opposed. But 61% support either gay marriage or civil unions, with just 36% against any sort of legal recognition for same sex couples.

-Our first look at newly elected Senator Ted Cruz's approval rating finds 36% of voters giving him good marks to 30% who disapprove. Not surprisingly 34% have no opinion about Cruz one way or the other after only one month of service. Cruz already has the highest net approval rating of major politicians in the state, besting Perry, John Cornyn, and Barack Obama.

Narrow support for same-sex marriage in Minnesota

Raleigh, N.C. – Minnesota voters support legalizing same-sex marriage by a narrow 2 point margin, 47% to 45%, according to PPP’s latest poll.

The issue splits largely along party lines: 74% of Democrats in support, 79% of Republicans opposed and independents breaking about even. The poll also finds that 43% of voters fully support legalizing gay marriage while 32% support civil unions but not gay marriage. Just 23% of respondents believe there should be no legal recognition of gay relationships.

“Minnesota’s marriage equality advocates are in a strong starting position if they decide to push to allow gay marriage,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

Minnesota Miscellany

-Minnesota voters are leaning toward legalizing gay marriage if they get the chance to vote on it next year. 47% think it should legal to 45% who believe it should be illegal. Although that's a narrow margin, the rapid movement in public opinion in favor of gay marriage over the last few years suggests that 22 months from now it would probably pass by a broader margin. Whether it's next year or not, the generational breakdown on our numbers makes it clear the direction things are going in- voters under 45 support gay marriage by a 53/38 margin. It's just 36/54 opposition among seniors dragging down its overall support.

When civil unions are introduced into the discussion 75% of voters support some form of legal recognition for gay couples to only 23% who are completely opposed to it. Even among Republican voters 56% at least support civil unions.

-Minnesota voters are pretty strong in their support for an assault weapons ban- 54% support it to only 37% who are opposed. There is near universal support for it among Democrats, and it also meets with favor from 22% of Republicans and has 49/42 support from independents.

More broadly voters say that they trust Obama over the NRA on gun issues by a 47/43 margin, and that they support Obama's executive order last week on guns by a 46/40 spread. Whether it's because of the guns issue or something else though Republicans are very mad at Obama- they support impeaching him by a 54/24 margin.

-Amy Klobuchar is one of the most popular Senators in the country. 65% of voters approve of her to only 25% who disapprove, and among Democrats it's a 90/4 spread. That makes it yet another testament to the desire of Democrats for Hillary Clinton to be their candidate in 2016 that even with Klobuchar in the mix, 59% of Minnesota Democrats want Clinton to be the next nominee with Biden at 14% and Klobuchar at 11%.

Clinton could beat Bush and Rubio in Florida in 2016

Raleigh, N.C. – Hillary Clinton could beat Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush on their home turf in a presidential contest, according to PPP’s latest poll.

In a hypothetical 2016 match-up, Clinton leads Rubio by 4 points, 50% to 46%, and she beats Bush by 5 points, 49% to 44%. Both of these modest leads are within the poll’s margin of error. The main reason Clinton leads both candidates is her strong appeal among moderates, who favor her 63% to 29% over Bush and 63% to 32% over Rubio.

Clinton’s +11 favorability rating (52/41) is actually lower than Rubio’s +13 job approval (49/36) and Bush’s +16 favorability rating (51/35). Despite their popularity at home, Florida voters don’t support Rubio or Bush running for president in the next election—they oppose the idea 53% to 31% for Bush and 49% to 38% for Rubio.