Public Policy Polling

Levin would have been favorite for re-election

Raleigh, N.C. – When we did our Michigan poll last weekend obviously we didn't know Carl Levin was going to announce his retirement this week, so we didn't test any other potential Democratic candidates. Our poll numbers on him do give a prism into the comparative strength of some of the possible Republican candidates though. The one who came the closest to Levin was Candice Miller, although she still trailed him 46/35. She has good statewide favorability numbers with 33% of voters rating her favorably to 25% with an unfavorable opinion.

No one else came within 15 points of Levin. Justin Amash has a 9/20 favorability rating and trailed Levin 49/34. Mike Rogers has a 16/19 favorability rating and trailed Levin 49/33. Bill Schuette has a 20/25 favorability rating and trailed Levin 51/32. And Roger Kahn had a 5/15 favorability rating and trailed Levin 50/30.

One other Republican who we didn't test on this poll but could potentially be a good candidate is former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. In December 2010 we found she had a 36/21 favorability rating and trailed Debbie Stabenow by only 4 points in a hypothetical contest.

Michigan Miscellany

-When we did our Michigan poll last weekend obviously we didn't know Carl Levin was going to announce his retirement this week, so we didn't test any other potential Democratic candidates. Our poll numbers on him do give a prism into the comparative strength of some of the possible Republican candidates though. The one who came the closest to Levin was Candice Miller, although she still trailed him 46/35. She has good statewide favorability numbers with 33% of voters rating her favorably to 25% with an unfavorable opinion.

No one else came within 15 points of Levin. Justin Amash has a 9/20 favorability rating and trailed Levin 49/34. Mike Rogers has a 16/19 favorability rating and trailed Levin 49/33. Bill Schuette has a 20/25 favorability rating and trailed Levin 51/32. And Roger Kahn had a 5/15 favorability rating and trailed Levin 50/30.

One other Republican who we didn't test on this poll but could potentially be a good candidate is former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. in December 2010 we found she had a 36/21 favorability rating and trailed Debbie Stabenow by only 4 points in a hypothetical contest.

Other notes from Michigan:

Sen. Levin secure against any Republican in 2014

Raleigh, N.C. – Debbie Stabenow won the Michigan Senate race by over 20 points this fall, and Carl Levin could be headed for a similar outcome if he decides to run for another term in 2014.

PPP's newest poll finds Levin leading 5 potential Republican opponents by anywhere from 18-22 points for reelection. He's up 52/34 on Congresswoman Candice Miller, 53/32 on Congressman Justin Amash, 53/31 on State Senator Roger Kahn, 54/32 on Attorney General Bill Schuette, and 55/31 on Congressman Mike Rogers.

None of those Republicans are particularly well known statewide. Miller has 57% name recognition but after her it's 40% for Schuette, 35% for Rogers, 28% for Amash, and only 15% for Kahn. It is likely these match ups would become closer if any of them ever came to fruition because so many of the undecideds are Republicans, but at any rate Levin is not looking particularly vulnerable.

Levin up big on potential GOP foes

Debbie Stabenow won the Michigan Senate race by over 20 points this fall, and Carl Levin could be headed for a similar outcome if he decides to run for another term in 2014.

PPP's newest poll finds Levin leading 5 potential Republican opponents by anywhere from 18-22 points for reelection. He's up 52/34 on Congresswoman Candice Miller, 53/32 on Congressman Justin Amash, 53/31 on State Senator Roger Kahn, 54/32 on Attorney General Bill Schuette, and 55/31 on Congressman Mike Rogers.

None of those Republicans are particularly well known statewide. Miller has 57% name recognition but after her it's 40% for Schuette, 35% for Rogers, 28% for Amash, and only 15% for Kahn. It is likely these match ups would become closer if any of them ever came to fruition because so many of the undecideds are Republicans, but at any rate Levin is not looking particularly vulnerable.

Other notes from Michigan:

-In the wake of her surprisingly dominant reelection, Debbie Stabenow is posting the best approval numbers we've ever found for her. 55% of voters approve of the job she's doing to 36% who disapprove of her. She's at 53/37 with independents and earns 18% approval even from Republican voters.

Obama leads by 6, Stabenow by 13 in Michigan

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final poll of the cycle in Michigan finds Democrats headed for victory in both the Presidential and Senate races. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 52-46, consistent with the 6-8 point lead we've found for him in all of our polling since the Republican convention. Debbie Stabenow leads Pete Hoekstra 55-42 in a race that never really got competitive.

Mitt Romney would have had to do 2 things to win Michigan: run up the score with independents and get a decent amount of crossover support from Democratic voters. But he's done neither. Obama is leading 49/46 with independents. And although there's very little crossover voting occurring, his share of Republicans (8%) is actually higher than the 7% of Democrats Romney is getting.

Stabenow leads by 9 in Michigan Senate race

Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's first poll of the Michigan Senate race since switching to likely voters continues to find Debbie Stabenow with a solid lead over Pete Hoekstra, 50-41. Stabenow has her party more unified around her, taking 88% of Democrats to Hoekstra's 81% of Republicans. She's also up 53-36 with independents. Stabenow is running almost even among white voters, trailing Hoekstra just 46-45, and when you add in her overwhelming support among non-whites you get her overall solid lead.

Michigan voters aren't in love with Stabenow. They're evenly divided on her job performance with 43% approving and 43% disapproving. But they continue to have a dim view of Hoekstra with 32% rating him favorably to 39% with an unfavorable opinion. That's about where his numbers have been ever since his controversial Super Bowl ad- he's had a hard time bouncing back from that.

Michigan Miscellany

-PPP's first poll of the Michigan Senate race since switching to likely voters continues to find Debbie Stabenow with a solid lead over Pete Hoekstra, 50-41. Stabenow has her party more unified around her, taking 88% of Democrats to Hoekstra's 81% of Republicans. She's also up 53-36 with independents. Stabenow is running almost even among white voters, trailing Hoekstra just 46-45, and when you add in her overwhelming support among non-whites you get her overall solid lead.

Michigan voters aren't in love with Stabenow. They're evenly divided on her job performance with 43% approving and 43% disapproving. But they continue to have a dim view of Hoekstra with 32% rating him favorably to 39% with an unfavorable opinion. That's about where his numbers have been ever since his controversial Super Bowl ad- he's had a hard time bouncing back from that.

-We polled three of this fall's ballot initiatives and found little change from our Michigan July poll on any of them. The constitutional amendment to guarantee collective bargaining rights is ahead by a 44/37 margin. The one to mandate that 25% of Michigan's electricity comes from renewable energy sources by 2025 is up 49/31. And in what would be a big victory for Rick Snyder, voters are saying by a 40/31 margin that they will keep the emergency managers law. There are a lot of undecideds on all these so the numbers could shift but for now they're favored for passage.