Public Policy Polling

Casey leading Republican challengers in Pennsylvania

Raleigh, N.C. – Senator Bob Casey holds large leads over a relatively unknown field of Republican challengers, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. Casey’s job approval rating numbers are fairly neutral with just 38% of voters approving, 36% disapproving and 26% not sure. But Casey is benefitting from his potential Republican challengers’ lack of name recognition and as a result leads each of them by 15-20 points.

None of the five potential Republican challengers PPP tested are well-known enough by voters to have more than even a quarter of respondents able to render a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them. David Christian has a 6% favorable rating, with 13% unfavorable and 82% not sure; Sam Rohrer is at 12/13 with 75% not sure; Marc Scaringi is at 5/12 with 83% not sure, Tom Smith comes in at 12/13 with 76% not sure; and Steve Welch is at 5/12 with 83% not sure.

Casey up big in PA-Sen, Rohrer strongest Republican

Bob Casey's approval ratings are nothing to write home about, but he continues to have a large lead over all of his potential Republican opponents.

38% of Pennsylvania voters approve of the job Casey is doing to 36% who disapprove. A higher than usual 26% have no opinion. Usually a Senator with a 38% approval rating would be in a lot of trouble. But Casey actually has an unusual amount of crossover support from Republicans, with 22% approving of him. The reason his numbers are low is that only 58% of Democrats approve of him to 23% who disapprove.  Usually Senators are in the 70-80% range with members of their own party.

Casey may have only 58% of Democrats who approve of the job he's doing, but 76-78% of them still commit to voting for him in the general election against any of his potential Republican opponents. In addition to strong support from the Democratic base he takes anywhere from 17-22% of the GOP vote against his possible foes, and leads with independents by 17-23 points.

It all adds up to a 15-20 point early lead no matter who runs against him. Sam Rohrer comes the closest of the Republicans, trailing by 15 at 49-34. Tom Smith and David Christian trail by 18 points at 49-31 and 50-32 respectively. Marc Scaringi and Steve Welch do the worst, trailing by identical 20 point margins at 49-29.

Bob Casey has double-digit leads over GOP field

Raleigh, N.C. – 40% of Pennsylvanians approve of Sen. Bob Casey’s job performance, and 34% disapprove.  These are not overwhelming numbers: 46 out of the 86 other senators on which PPP has polled have constituents who are more positive toward them.  But Casey is certainly held in higher esteem than the president in this state, and only one of his Senate colleagues who have competitive re-election races next fall have constituents who give them a bigger thumb’s up.  Because of Casey’s relative strength, no heavyweights have so far joined the crowded GOP primary race to oppose him, and he is close to the 50% mark against all of the candidates who have.

Casey continues to lead

It looks like Bob Casey's bid for reelection will be more competitive than his blow out victory over Rick Santorum was to get elected in 2006...but he's still in pretty good shape.

40% of Pennsylvania voters approve of the job Casey is doing to 34% who disapprove. Those numbers are actually better than they might appear to be on the surface though.  23% of Republicans approve of the job Casey's doing, an unusual level of crossover support in this highly polarized political climate. And he's on positive ground with independents at 40/36. 

What holds Casey's numbers back is that the Democratic base is not very enthused about him- he has only a 55% approval rating with his own party to 23% who disapprove of him. But even though a good number of Democrats don't necessary like him, 77-80% of them still say they'll vote for him against any of his potential Republican challengers.  Casey and Florida's Bill Nelson are in a similar boat- their topline approval numbers make them appear to be more vulnerable than they really are because their numbers get dragged down by their party base not being enthralled with them, even though it will vote for them in the end.

Casey leads all of his potential GOP opponents by double digits, but he doesn't match his 17 point margin of victory against Rick Santorum from 2006 against any of them. The Republican candidate who comes closest is Sam Rohrer, who we also found leading on our primary poll last week. Casey has a 47-36 advantage over him. Casey's up 14 on Steve Welch at 47-33, 15 on Tim Burns at 49-34, and 16 on Tom Smith at 48-32. The key statistic in all of those match ups is that Casey gets 14-17% of the Republican vote. To put that in perspective, last year we found Joe Sestak getting only 8% of the GOP vote on our final poll before the election.

Casey in good shape

Pennsylvania polling we released last week showed Barack Obama in serious trouble in the state. But Bob Casey just continues to roll along, leading his actual opponents by 18-20 points and leading a bevy of potential candidates the GOP would probably rather have in the race by anywhere from 9-16 points.

Casey's approval numbers don't exactly set the world on fire, with 40% of voters giving him good marks to 32% who disapprove. Those numbers are deceptively weak though. What keeps them down is that Democrats aren't terribly enthused with Casey- only 56% of them approve of him to 18% who disapprove. You'd usually expect a Senator to be more in the 70-80% approval range with voters of his own party. But even if Democratic voters aren't enthralled with Casey 79-85% of them are still committed to voting for him in the general election and unenthusiastic votes count just the same as excited ones.

Bob Casey easily leads Santorum, others for re-election

Raleigh, N.C. – Bob Casey’s approval rating has slid since PPP last polled Pennsylvania in early January.  Then 41% approved and only 29% disapproved of his performance in the Senate.  That margin has fallen to 39-35, as he has slid with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.  But he still leads a host of no-name Republicans for re-election, and has actually increased his margin over the much better-known man he defeated in 2006, Rick Santorum.  Should Santorum forgo a presidential run for a rematch with Casey, he would start out down double digits.

Casey has weak approvals but large leads

Is Bob Casey vulnerable for reelection? Our newest Pennsylvania poll provides data you can use to argue it either way. On one hand he has weak approval numbers- only 39% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 35% who disapprove- you can certainly get defeated with those kinds of numbers. On the other hand he leads seven potential opponents for next year that we tested against him by anywhere from 12 to 23 points- you'll pretty much never get defeated with those kinds of numbers.

My sense is that Casey is not terribly vulnerable. Here's the thing about his low approval numbers- Democrats aren't in love with him. Just 55% approve of him and 22% disapprove. Generally you'll see a Senator closer to the 70% or 80% mark within his own party so his lack of approval from the party base is what's keeping Casey's approval number under 40%. But even though they don't necessarily like Casey, Democrats are still perfectly willing to vote for him- he gets 78-80% of the Democratic vote in head to head match ups against the seven Republicans we tested. And his 19% approval number with Republicans, although it may not sound like much, is actually a pretty decent amount of crossover support in this highly polarized political climate.

Casey and Florida's Bill Nelson may be the biggest teases for Republicans this cycle- when you look at the approval numbers it seems like they should be beatable but their topline approvals make them look a lot more vulnerable than they actually are. In each of their cases their disapproval number might be what's most instructive- only 35% of voters disapprove of Casey and only 34% of voters disapprove of Nelson- for an incumbent to be defeated you usually have to have ticked off more people than that.

The Republican who polls best against Casey is Rick Santorum, who trails 49-37. The Santorum/Casey match is probably the most instructive of the ones we tested. Those numbers show that Casey is at least a little bit weaker than he was in 2006, because he beat Santorum by 18 points that time. The political climate is a lot less friendly for Democrats now and Casey probably can't expect to win by that kind of grandiose margin again this time around. But they also show that Casey is a good 10 points stronger than Obama since this same poll found the President leading Santorum by only 2. It's an oversimplification but if Casey is roughly 10 points stronger than Obama Democrats would need to have an utter disaster in the state next year for Casey to lose.

None of the rest of the Republicans we tested has anything higher than 25% name recognition. Because of that lack of familiarity with their potential candidates all of these matches have a lot more undecided GOP voters than Democrats, which means if any of these folks actually became the Republican nominee the race would likely get tighter. Casey is up 16 on state senator Jake Corman at 51-35, 18 on Congressman Jim Gerlach at 50-32, 19 on Tea Party activist Laureen Cummings at 51-32, 20 on Congressman Charlie Dent at 51-31, 21 on state senate Kim Ward at 50-29, and 23 on announced candidate Marc Scaringi at 51-28.

Casey could be vulnerable. But he's nowhere near the top of the list for Democratic Senators the GOP could take out next year, and credible Republicans certainly don't seem to be lining up to run against him.

Full results here

Casey trounces host of unknown Republicans in PA

Raleigh, N.C. – With yesterday’s release showing Rick Santorum eight points down to President Obama in the former senator’s home state, Santorum may choose to abandon his exploration of a presidential bid in favor of a rematch of his 2006 loss to now Senator Bob Casey.  If he does that, he would at least make it much closer than the rout Casey laid on him four years ago, but he would come little closer than he does against the president.  If he chooses neither route, Casey would win re-election by 13 to 23 points against four other, far lesser-known GOP possibilities.

Casey tops Santorum, 48-41.  Santorum now posts the same level of support he did in the previous match-up of the two candidates, but he at least has 11% of voters on the fence about Casey this time.  Casey leads former acting governor Mark Schweiker, 47-34; 6^th-District Rep. Jim Gerlach, 49-33; 15^th-District Rep. Charlie Dent, 51-31; and attorney Marc Scaringi, the only announced candidate so far, by a 50-27 margin.

Casey looks pretty solid

PPP's early looks ahead to the 2012 Senate races have found a lot of the Democrats first elected in the wave year of 2006 to be extremely vulnerable for reelection- Bob Casey is not one of them. He has solid approval numbers and leads five prospective opponents tested against him by margins ranging from 7 to 23 points.

41% of voters in the state approve of the job Casey is doing to 29% who disapprove. He's on positive ground with independents but the most striking thing within his numbers is that 23% of Republicans approve of him to only 47% who disapprove. To put those figures in some context Arlen Specter's breakdown with GOP voters on our last poll before the election last fall was 9/86 and Ed Rendell's was 11/80. Republicans just don't have as big a problem with Casey as they do with most Democratic politicians.

The Republican tested in the poll who comes closest to Casey is Rick Santorum, who nevertheless trails 48-41. Doing next best is former Governor Mark Schweiker who trails 47-34, followed by Congressman Jim Gerlach who's down 49-33, Congressman Charlie Dent whose deficit is 51-31, and actual announced candidate Marc Scaringi who trails 50-27.

Two things persist throughout all five match ups: a strong advantage for Casey with independents and an inordinate amount of crossover support from Republicans. Casey has at least a 20 point advantage with independent voters against all 5 of the GOPers tested- it's 20 over Santorum, 22 over Gerlach, 24 over Schweiker, 30 over Scaringi, and 38 over Dent. Casey also gets 13-16% of the Republican vote in each scenario. To put that in perspective Joe Sestak received only 8% support from GOP voters in his contest against Pat Toomey last fall.

It should be noted that with the exception of Santorum none of the Republicans are particularly well known and as a result it seems likely that they would pull closer if any of them were actually to make the race and build their name recognition up across the state. Schweiker's brief term as Governor doesn't seem to have made much of an impression on voters, 66% of whom have no opinion about him. That goes up to 74% for Gerlach, 76% for Dent, and 85% for Scaringi. Santorum is certainly well known but he is not well liked with only 38% of voters rating him favorably to 44% with an unfavorable opinion.

Casey is not unbeatable by any means but he will be a very formidable candidate and he's on much safer ground than the Sherrod Browns and Claire McCaskills and Jim Webbs of the world who were also a part of his freshman class.

Full results here

Senate Approval Ratings

During the second half of 2010 PPP polled on approval ratings for 59 different Senators. Here's some of the information on how they stack up:

-The average approval rating for a Senator right now is 43% approving to 40% disapproving. That suggests the old adage that voters hate Congress but love their Congressman holds true...to an extent...maybe hate Congress but don't mind their Congressman is a better way of putting it. At any rate 37 Senators had positive approval numbers in our most recent polls while 22 had negative ones.

-There's very little difference in the average approval of Republican Senators vs. Democratic Senators. Your average GOP Senator has a 43/37 approval spread. Your average Democrats comes down at 44% approval and 41% disapproval.

-Seven Senators posted a net approval rating of +20 or greater during the second half of 2010. The most popular is Amy Klobuchar at +30, followed by Scott Brown at +24, Judd Gregg at +23, and then Barbara Mikulski, Mark Warner, Chuck Schumer, and Olympia Snowe all at +22.

-There are only three Senators who posted a net approval rating of -20 or worse during the second half of 2010. They are Roland Burris at -39, Arlen Specter at -31, and Joe Lieberman at -21. Specter and Lieberman's numbers definitely speak to the perils of having it both ways...they don't really make Democrats or Republicans particularly happy and you can get away with that if independents love you for your independence but in their cases that has not happened. I will be interested to see if Lieberman's numbers are back in the right direction after the last month and I imagine we'll poll there sometime in January.

-The two most popular Senate delegations are Maine where Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins add up to a +39 approval spread and Maryland where Barbara Mikulski and Ben Cardin combine for a +36 approval spread. The two least popular are Connecticut where Lieberman and Chris Dodd are both pretty unpopular and add up to -37 and Illinois where Dick Durbin actually is on positive ground but Burris is so unpopular that together they add up to -37.

Here are the full numbers, there are probably a lot of other interesting points that I'm missing. And a methodological note, I'm using our most recent poll here except for states that we polled repeatedly in October- for those ones I'm using the poll that proved to come closest to the election outcome in the state:

Senator	Approval	Spread
Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)	59/29	+30
Scott Brown (R-MA)	53/29	+24
Judd Gregg (R-NH)	52/29	+23
Olympia Snowe (R-ME)	56/34	+22
Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)	54/32	+22
Mark Warner (D-VA)	54/32	+22
Chuck Schumer (D-NY)	57/35	+22
Susan Collins (R-ME)	53/36	+17
Jeff Bingaman (D-NM)	50/34	+16
John Cornyn (R-TX)	46/31	+15
Herb Kohl (D-WI)	50/35	+15
Ben Cardin (D-MD)	42/28	+14
Daniel Akaka (D-HI)	49/35	+14
Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)	50/37	+13
David Vitter (R-LA)	53/41	+12
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX)	45/33	+12
Tom Udall (D-NM)	48/36	+12
Jon Tester (D-MT)	50/40	+10
Kit Bond (R-MO)	45/36	+9
Jay Rockefeller (D-WV)	49/40	+9
Tom Carper (D-DE)	45/36	+9
Jon Kyl (R-AZ)	47/39	+8
Russ Feingold (D-WI)	50/43	+7
Carl Levin (D-MI)	47/40	+7
John Kerry (D-MA)	50/43	+7
Jim Webb (D-VA)	43/37	+6
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)	42/37	+5
Ted Kaufman (D-DE)	38/33	+5
Sherrod Brown (D-OH)	40/37	+3
Bill Nelson (D-FL)	36/33	+3
Al Franken (D-MN)	45/42	+3
Maria Cantwell (D-WA)	44/41	+3
Mark Udall (D-CO)	38/35	+3
Richard Burr (R-NC)	36/34	+2
Jeff Merkley (D-OR)	35/33	+2
Dick Durbin (D-IL)	47/45	+2
Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)	41/40	+1
Patty Murray (D-WA)	47/48	-1
Claire McCaskill (D-MO)	43/44	-1
Mitch McConnell (R-KY)	42/44	-2
Barbara Boxer (D-CA)	44/46	-2
Bob Casey (D-PA)	36/40	-4
George Voinovich (R-OH)	36/40	-4
Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)	41/46	-5
Carte Goodwin (D-WV)	17/22	-5
Kay Hagan (D-NC)	36/43	-7
John Ensign (R-NV)	41/48	-7
Harry Reid (D-NV)	44/52	-8
Michael Bennet (D-CO)	39/47	-8
Mark Begich (D-AK)	39/47	-8
George LeMieux (R-FL)	16/27	-11
Mary Landrieu (D-LA)	41/53	-12
Jim Bunning (R-KY)	32/45	-13
Max Baucus (D-MT)	38/53	-15
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)	37/53	-16
Chris Dodd (D-CT)	36/52	-16
Joe Lieberman (I-CT)	33/54	-21
Arlen Specter (D-PA)	29/60	-31
Roland Burris (D-IL)	19/58	-39