PPP's newest Florida poll finds Hillary Clinton's lead in the state continuing to tick up. She's at 46% to 42% for Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson at 5%, and Jill Stein at 1%. When PPP last polled the state two weeks ago, Clinton's advantage was 45/43. In a head to head, Clinton's lead over Trump grows to 5 points at 49/44.
Trump was already unpopular in Florida but after the revelations of the last week his favorability numbers have cratered in the state. On our last poll he had a net -11 rating (42/53) and that's declined by another 11 points to where it's now -22 (37/59). Clinton, on the other hand, has seen a slight improvement from 43/53 up to 44/51.
It seems like Trump's last ditch effort to revive his campaign might be trying to use Bill Clinton's past accused actions against his wife, but we find that voters in Florida are likely to firmly reject that line of attack. Only 35% of voters think it's fair to hold Hillary responsible for the behavior of her husband, to 57% who say that's unfair. That line of argument might play well with Trump's hardcore base, but it's not likely to help him win over many new converts.
One thing that's helping Clinton's prospects in Florida is that voters say 52-43 they'd rather have another four years of Barack Obama as President than the sharp change of direction that a Trump presidency would represent. Undecided voters, by a 29 point margin, would rather have Obama than Trump. Those folks don't like Hillary Clinton or else they'd already be voting for her, but it seems they might go Clinton, or they might go third party, or they might stay home. But they're not likely to move to Trump, who literally not a single undecided voter in our poll said they had a positive opinion of.
There's been some surprise that the bottom hasn't fallen out on Trump even more than it already has this week. Here are some findings that explain why Trump's not seeing a greater decline in support:
-84% of Trump voters think that Hillary Clinton should be in prison, to only 6% who disagree with that notion. If you hate the opposing candidate so much you think she should be in jail, you're probably not jumping ship.
-Alex Jones floated the notion this week that Hillary Clinton is actually a demon, and 40% of Trump voters say that they really do think Clinton is a demon to only 42% who dismiss that idea. This measurement pretty clearly shows that 40% of Trump's base is the InfoWars crowd, so they're not going to be too dissuaded by allegations of sexual misconduct.
-We've talked all year about how there's a cult like aspect to Trump's following, and this finding might show it most of all: despite everything that's come out in the last week, 75% of Trump voters say they think that he respects women to only 9% who don't believe he does. Again, if you're willing to dismiss all the facts in front of you to the contrary, you're probably going to stay on board through election day.
-One thing that gives motivation to 38% of Trump voters in Florida is that they think the country is inherently better off with a man as President, regardless of this year's candidates. It seems safe to say the folks who subscribe to that school of thought are unbothered by the last week of Trump revelations.
Clinton's a stronger favorite now- both nationally and in Florida- than she's ever been. But the above mentioned reasons are why she's not up by double digits and seems unlikely to get to that point regardless of how many more bad news cycles Trump has between now and election day.
Other notes from Florida: