Public Policy Polling

Florida voters support a path to citizenship

Raleigh, N.C. – 53% of Florida voters support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, compared to 31% of voters who are opposed to it. There's a bipartisan consensus on the issue with independents (58/25), Democrats (57/30), and Republicans (45/35) all supportive of reform.

Marco Rubio's been a leading voice on the immigration issue recently. 31% of voters say they support his stance on immigration while 27% disagree and 42% aren't sure either way. What's interesting within the crosstabs is that 28% of voters who say they support his position on immigration actually oppose a path to citizenship. And 65% of voters who say they oppose his position actually support a path to citizenship. Those numbers suggest a lot of people on both sides are reacting more to his party label than his actual position on the issue when assessing their opinion of Rubio's view.

We also asked voters their opinion about Jeb Bush's stance on a path to citizenship...but 57% of voters said they're not sure what it is.

Florida Miscellany

-53% of Florida voters support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, compared to 31% of voters who are opposed to it. There's a bipartisan consensus on the issue with independents (58/25), Democrats (57/30), and Republicans (45/35) all supportive of reform.

Marco Rubio's been a leading voice on the immigration issue recently. 31% of voters say they support his stance on immigration while 27% disagree and 42% aren't sure either way. What's interesting within the crosstabs is that 28% of voters who say they support his position on immigration actually oppose a path to citizenship. And 65% of voters who say they oppose his position actually support a path to citizenship. Those numbers suggest a lot of people on both sides are reacting more to his party label than his actual position on the issue when assessing their opinion of Rubio's view.

We also asked voters their opinion about Jeb Bush's stance on a path to citizenship...but 57% of voters said they're not sure what it is.

-75% of Florida voters support at least civil unions for same sex couples, compared to only 23% who think there should be no form of legal recognition for them. 80% of independents, 74% of Republicans, and 72% of Democrats support either gay marriage or civil unions. When asked about the specific domestic partner bill that was recently introduced in the Florida legislature though 60% of voters said they had no opinion, with 23% supportive of and 17% opposed to it. Those numbers mostly reflect the average voter not paying much attention to the legislature.

Clinton could beat Bush and Rubio in Florida in 2016

Raleigh, N.C. – Hillary Clinton could beat Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush on their home turf in a presidential contest, according to PPP’s latest poll.

In a hypothetical 2016 match-up, Clinton leads Rubio by 4 points, 50% to 46%, and she beats Bush by 5 points, 49% to 44%. Both of these modest leads are within the poll’s margin of error. The main reason Clinton leads both candidates is her strong appeal among moderates, who favor her 63% to 29% over Bush and 63% to 32% over Rubio.

Clinton’s +11 favorability rating (52/41) is actually lower than Rubio’s +13 job approval (49/36) and Bush’s +16 favorability rating (51/35). Despite their popularity at home, Florida voters don’t support Rubio or Bush running for president in the next election—they oppose the idea 53% to 31% for Bush and 49% to 38% for Rubio.

Florida Miscellany

-Barack Obama's poll numbers in Florida pretty closely mirror the results of the Presidential election in the state- 50% of voters approve of him, while 48% disapprove. Bill Nelson begins his third term in the Senate at a 43/40 spread, decent numbers but also ones that suggest his overwhelming victory in November might have had a lot to do with voters having a pretty dim view of his opponent Connie Mack IV. Marco Rubio continues to be the state's most popular politician with a 49/36 approval spread, outdistancing both Nelson and Governor Rick Scott.

-The White House has ruled out the option since we conducted our poll anyway but only 15% of Florida voters supported creating a trillion dollar coin to avoid the debt ceiling, while 54% were opposed to it. There was opposition to the idea across party lines with Republicans (8/71) and Democrats (23/36) both standing against it. Nevertheless the fact that 69% of Florida voters have an opinion about this concept that several months ago was very obscure is a tribute to how much its proponents got it out into the public dialogue.

-At least on January 17th, 2013 Hillary Clinton is the strongest candidate for President in Florida for 2016. Two of the most high profile potential Republican candidates for next time come from Florida, and Clinton bests both of them on their home turf: 50/46 over Marco Rubio and 49/44 over Jeb Bush.

Florida and North Carolina going down to the wire

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls of the cycle in Florida and North Carolina suggest that they may be the closest states in the country this year.

In Florida Obama leads 50/49, but to be more specific 473 respondents chose Obama and 472 picked Romney. PPP has conducted 4 polls in Florida over the last three weeks and found a 1 point race every time- Obama has been up slightly twice and Romney has been up slightly twice.

It's a similar story in North Carolina- the candidates are tied at 49 there based on rounded numbers, but if you break it out to decimal points Romney's up 49.4% to 49.2% with 457 respondents having chosen him to 455 for Obama. Both states are likely in for a long night on Tuesday. Our last three polls in North Carolina have all come out as ties. Barack Obama has built up a 54/45 lead during the early voting period, but Mitt Romney's ahead 57/41 with those planning to vote on election day. Romney is making up for the registration advantage Democrats in the state have with a 55/40 lead among independent voters.

Florida and North Carolina too close to call

PPP's final polls of the cycle in Florida and North Carolina suggest that they may be the closest states in the country this year. In Florida Obama leads 50/49, but to be more specific 473 respondents chose Obama and 472 picked Romney. It's a similar story in North Carolina- the candidates are tied at 49 there based on rounded numbers, but if you break it out to decimal points Romney's up 49.4% to 49.2% with 457 respondents having chosen him to 455 for Obama. Both states are likely in for a long night on Tuesday.

PPP has conducted 4 polls in Florida over the last three weeks and found a 1 point race every time- Obama has been up slightly twice and Romney has been up slightly twice. There is a massive generational gap in the state with Romney leading 61/38 among seniors while Obama leads within every other age group. The Paul Ryan selection didn't hurt Romney with Florida seniors as some had thought it might. Obama's up 52/47 with women, 53/47 with Hispanics, and 91/9 with African Americans while Romney has a 53/47 edge with men and a 59/40 one with white voters.

Our last three polls in North Carolina have all come out as ties. Barack Obama has built up a 54/45 lead during the early voting period, but Mitt Romney's ahead 57/41 with those planning to vote on election day. Romney is making up for the registration advantage Democrats in the state have with a 55/40 lead among independent voters. Beyond that the race pretty much breaks down as you would expect. Obama is up with women (54/46), African Americans (87/12), and young voters (55/42). Romney is winning with men (54/44), whites (62/37), and seniors (58/41).

In the Florida Senate race Bill Nelson is in good position to be reelected, leading Republican foe Connie Mack IV 51/46. Nelson's lead has bounced around in the 4-7 point range in our polling over the last few weeks. Floridians narrowly approve of the job he's doing, 44/41. They don't care for Mack, with 38% rating him favorably and 43% holding an unfavorable opinion. Nelson's up 56/40 with independents.

Pat McCrory continues to be favored in the North Carolina Governor's race, although the contest has tightened in the closing stretch. He's at 50% to 43% for Walter Dalton and 4% for Libertarian Barbara Howe. Dalton's moving closer because he's gone from 62% of the Democratic vote to 73% in the last week. Still McCrory's 58/29 advantage with independents and the fact that he's winning 21% of Democrats puts him in a very strong position. Outgoing Governor Bev Perdue's approval rating is 31% with 54% of voters disapproving of her and those numbers don't create a positive climate for electing another Democratic Governor- not a lot Dalton could do about that. The contest for Lieutenant Governor in North Carolina continues to be a dead heat with Republican Dan Forest at 45% to 44% for Democrat Linda Coleman.

Full results here

1 point separates Obama and Romney in Florida

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Florida poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49/48, flipping the numbers from each of our last two polls of the state which found Romney leading by a point.

Obama's leading in Florida based on his strength with women (54/45), African Americans (89/10), and voters under 30 (55/39). Romney is strong with men (53/43), whites (57/39), and seniors (53/46). Romney also has narrow advantages with Hispanics (54/46) and independents (50/43).

Floridians actually trust Romney over Obama to deal both with the economy (50/46) and foreign policy (49/48) so something else is driving Obama's razor thin lead in the state. When asked to consider who won the debates as a whole voters pick Romney by a 47/46 margin, indicating that Obama's wins in the last two debates mostly made up for his overwhelming loss in the first one.

1 point race in Florida

PPP's newest Florida poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49/48, flipping the numbers from each of our last two polls of the state which found Romney leading by a point. Every poll PPP has conducted in the state since the first Presidential debate has found a one point race.

Obama's leading in Florida based on his strength with women (54/45), African Americans (89/10), and voters under 30 (55/39). Romney is strong with men (53/43), whites (57/39), and seniors (53/46). Romney also has narrow advantages with Hispanics (54/46) and independents (50/43).

Floridians actually trust Romney over Obama to deal both with the economy (50/46) and foreign policy (49/48) so something else is driving Obama's razor thin lead in the state. When asked to consider who won the debates as a whole voters pick Romney by a 47/46 margin, indicating that Obama's wins in the last two debates mostly made up for his overwhelming loss in the first one.

In Florida's Senate race incumbent Bill Nelson looks to have a pretty commanding lead heading into the final week of the campaign, 50/42 over Republican foe Connie Mack IV. Nelson's approval rating is on positive ground for the first time in quite a while at 44/41. Mack continues to be quite an unpopular candidate with only 36% of voters rating him favorably to 46% with a negative one. Nelson is winning independent voters 51/36 even as Obama is simultaneously losing them, and he's also taking 17% of the Republican vote.

Romney leads by 1 in Florida

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Florida poll finds a 5 point gain for Mitt Romney over the last three weeks. He now leads Barack Obama by a 49/48 margin, after trailing 50-46 in late September. The shift in the race is largely attributable to independent voters shifting their preferences. Where before Obama had a 51-40 advantage with them, now Romney's taken the lead by a 51/43 spread. When it comes to the biggest issue in the election, the economy, Romney's edge over Obama expands to 51/46 on who voters trust more.

Romney and Obama's images have headed in difference directions since the Presidential debate. Voters have warmed up to Romney a good bit, going from giving him a negative favorability rating at 44/51 to a positive one at 50/47. Meanwhile Obama's approval numbers have gone the other way. Where before he was on positive ground with 51% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapproved, now he's in slightly negative territory at 48/50.

Romney leads by 1 in tight Florida race

PPP's newest Florida poll finds a 5 point gain for Mitt Romney over the last three weeks. He now leads Barack Obama by a 49/48 margin, after trailing 50-46 in late September. The shift in the race is largely attributable to independent voters shifting their preferences. Where before Obama had a 51-40 advantage with them, now Romney's taken the lead by a 51/43 spread. When it comes to the biggest issue in the election, the economy, Romney's edge over Obama expands to 51/46 on who voters trust more.

Romney and Obama's images have headed in difference directions since the Presidential debate. Voters have warmed up to Romney a good bit, going from giving him a negative favorability rating at 44/51 to a positive one at 50/47. Meanwhile Obama's approval numbers have gone the other way. Where before he was on positive ground with 51% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapproved, now he's in slightly negative territory at 48/50.

There's been a fairly large shift among white voters over the last three weeks. They've gone from favoring Romney by 11 points at 53-42 to 17 points at 57-40. Non-white voters are pretty steady from the last poll including Hispanics who give Obama a slight edge at 50/47.  Obama has a small advantage with voters under 65, but Romney erases that with a 52/45 advantage among seniors. Likewise Obama's up with women (51-47) but Romney's ahead by even more with men (52-44).

The Vice Presidential debate doesn't seem to have made much of a difference with voters in the state. They think Biden won it 44/40, including a 45/34 victory with independents. But in spite of that they still have a more favorable opinion of Ryan (50/44 favorability) than they do of the Vice President (45/50).