Public Policy Polling

North Carolina remains a toss-up

Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's post-Democratic convention North Carolina poll finds virtually no change from last week. Barack Obama leads 49-48, a result hardly different from the 48/48 tie we found last week.

That's not to say the convention wasn't a success for Democrats. 57% of voters think hosting it was a good thing for North Carolina to only 15% who believed it was a bad thing with 26% considering it neutral. Democrats consider it to have been a positive by an 84/4 margin and independents do 53/11. Republicans though believe it was a bad thing by a 34/23 margin. By a 47/39 margin North Carolinians say the Democrats had a better convention than the Republicans.

North Carolina remains extremely tight

PPP's post-Democratic convention North Carolina poll finds virtually no change from last week. Barack Obama leads 49-48, a result hardly different from the 48/48 tie we found last week.

That's not to say the convention wasn't a success for Democrats. 57% of voters think hosting it was a good thing for North Carolina to only 15% who believed it was a bad thing with 26% considering it neutral. Democrats consider it to have been a positive by an 84/4 margin and independents do 53/11. Republicans though believe it was a bad thing by a 34/23 margin. By a 47/39 margin North Carolinians say the Democrats had a better convention than the Republicans.

Why no bounce? North Carolina voters have simply proven to be pretty intractable. We have polled an Obama/Romney match up in the state 25 times since November of 2010. Obama and Romney have been within 3 points of each other 24 out of those 25 times. Sometimes Obama's up by a little and sometimes Romney's up by a little but it's never outside the margin of error. The state of play in North Carolina this year is that each candidate has about 46% of the vote locked up, has had it locked up forever, and now they're just fighting over a very small persuadable swath of the electorate and seeing who has the superior GOTV operation. Barring a big shift in the national picture over the final eight weeks it's unlikely either candidate will win by more than 2-3 points, and a less than 1% difference in the final outcome like 2008 seems very plausible.

Obama has slightly positive approval numbers at 50/49. This is the first time PPP has found him above water in North Carolina since April. Romney has narrowly negative favorability numbers at 48/49. Those figures are basically unchanged from a week ago.

Obama’s lead up to 5 in Ohio

Raleigh, N.C. -- PPP's first post-conventions poll in Ohio finds Barack Obama with a 5 point lead over Mitt Romney, 50-45. This is the largest lead PPP has found for Obama in an Ohio poll since early May. Last month Obama led 48-45.

Both candidates have seen their images improve with Ohio voters in the wake of the conventions. Obama now breaks even in his approval rating at 48%, after being under water with 46% of voters approving and 51% disapproving of him a month ago. Romney's numbers are up from a 41/52 favorability rating a month ago as well, but he still remains unpopular. Only 44% see him favorably to 49% with a negative opinion.

Romney actually leads 46-44 with independents but Obama has the overall advantage thanks to a more unified party base. He leads 86/11 with Democrats, compared to Romney's 83/13 advantage with Republicans. Obama's 75 point lead within his own party is up from 70 points a month ago, suggesting that his party has coalesced around him a little bit more in the wake of a successful convention.

Obama leads by 5 in Ohio

PPP's first post-conventions poll in Ohio finds Barack Obama with a 5 point lead over Mitt Romney, 50-45. This is the largest lead PPP has found for Obama in an Ohio poll since early May. Last month Obama led 48-45.

Both candidates have seen their images improve with Ohio voters in the wake of the conventions. Obama now breaks even in his approval rating at 48%, after being under water with 46% of voters approving and 51% disapproving of him a month ago. Romney's numbers are up from a 41/52 favorability rating a month ago as well, but he still remains unpopular. Only 44% see him favorably to 49% with a negative opinion.

Romney actually leads 46-44 with independents but Obama has the overall advantage thanks to a more unified party base. He leads 86/11 with Democrats, compared to Romney's 83/13 advantage with Republicans. Obama's 75 point lead within his own party is up from 70 points a month ago, suggesting that his party has coalesced around him a little bit more in the wake of a successful convention. By a 47/35 margin Ohio voters say they think the Democrats had a better convention than the Republicans.

Obama's leading in Ohio because he's not as weak there with some large voter blocs as he is in other states. He trails only 48-46 with men and 50-46 with whites, and actually leads 49-47 with seniors. His performance with those groups is far better than it is nationally- Romney would need much wider leads with them if he was going to take Ohio.

$1 president is #1 in America’s hearts

Raleigh, N.C. – America’s first president is still its most popular, according to PPP’s latest national survey released on the heels of Valentine’s and ahead of Presidents’ Day.  89% of voters see George Washington favorably, and only 3% unfavorably, followed in the top ten by Abraham Lincoln (85-7), Thomas Jefferson (74-6), Teddy Roosevelt (66-9), John Adams (55-9), Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower (each 62-11), John F. Kennedy (70-21), John Quincy Adams (52-7), and Franklin D. Roosevelt (62-22).  Ronald Reagan is 14^th most popular (62-30), Gerald Ford 16^th (49-28), Bill Clinton 17^th (54-38), George H.W. Bush 19^th (51-42), and Jimmy Carter tied for 29^th (44-44).

The least popular by far is Richard Nixon (27-59), followed by ten others in negative territory: Lyndon B. Johnson (34-42), Warren Harding (12-19), Millard Fillmore (7-12), Herbert Hoover (25-29), Calvin Coolidge (18-22), Barack Obama (46-49), Chester Arthur (10-13), Martin Van Buren (13-15), James Buchanan (11-13), and George W. Bush (45-46).  54% (James Monroe) to 84% of voters (Franklin Pierce) have no opinion of 20 of the 43 presidents, mostly 19^th- and early-20^th-century commanders-in-chief.  Only eight have “not sure” figures in the single digits, led by the current head of state.

PPP: presidential popularity poll

As part of our national poll last weekend, we decided to do a special Presidents' Day poll and ask voters how they feel about each of the 43 presidents we've had, including the current one.  (Yes, Obama is the 44th, but remember: Grover Cleveland was both the 22nd and 24th.)

What we found is that America's first president is still its most popular.  89% of voters see George Washington favorably, and only 3% unfavorably, followed in the top ten by Abraham Lincoln (85-7), Thomas Jefferson (74-6), Teddy Roosevelt (66-9), John Adams (55-9), Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower (each 62-11), John F. Kennedy (70-21), John Quincy Adams (52-7), and Franklin D. Roosevelt (62-22).  Of other recent presidents, Ronald Reagan is 14^th most popular (62-30), Gerald Ford 16^th (49-28), Bill Clinton 17^th (54-38), George H.W. Bush 19^th (51-42), and Jimmy Carter tied for 29^th (44-44).

The least popular by far is Richard Nixon (27-59), followed by ten others in negative territory: Lyndon B. Johnson (34-42), Warren Harding (12-19), Millard Fillmore (7-12), Herbert Hoover (25-29), Calvin Coolidge (18-22), Barack Obama (46-49), Chester Arthur (10-13), Martin Van Buren (13-15), James Buchanan (11-13), and George W. Bush (45-46).

JFK, Reagan, Clinton most popular recent ex-presidents

Raleigh, N.C. – There is no question who the most beloved president of the last half century is: John F. Kennedy.  74% of American voters have a favorable opinion of Kennedy, and only 15% an unfavorable one.  Depending on how one looks at it, the next most popular is either Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan, according to PPP’s latest national survey.  More (62%) have a positive view of Clinton than Reagan (60%), but also fewer dislike the Gipper (30%) than Bubba (34%).

Kennedy, Reagan tops in Americans' Hearts

On our national poll last week we asked Americans their opinion about every former President of the last 50 years.  Here's how they rank from most popular to least popular as measured by net favorability:

1) John F. Kennedy (74/15 favorability, net of +59). JFK is the only one of the former Presidents seen positively by a majority of Democrats (90/6), independents (70/16), and Republicans (59/25).  A majority of voters within every demographic subgroup included in the poll has a favorable view of Kennedy.

2) Ronald Reagan (60/30 favorability, net of +30). Reagan is just as popular with Republicans as Kennedy is with Democrats at a 90/7 spread.  And although not quite to the same extent as Kennedy he has exceptionally good numbers with independents as well at 62/28.  Where he really falls short is the crossover popularity- only 35% of Democrats like him with 51% expressing a dim view.

3) Bill Clinton (62/34 favorability, net of +28).  The most interesting thing about Clinton's numbers is probably that he's more popular with black voters than any of the other Presidents of the last 50 years, just barely edging Kennedy at an 86/9 spread.  33% of Republicans express a positive opinion of him which seems remarkable given the level of vitriol toward him while he was actually in office.

Hillary comes out on top

PPP's new national survey looking at arguably the 5 most significant Democratic figures in the country finds Hillary Clinton as the most popular followed by Michelle Obama, then Bill Clinton, Joe Biden, and Barack Obama.

Here are the numbers:

Individual	Favorability	Net
Hillary Clinton	56/37	+19
Michelle Obama	52/37	+15
Bill Clinton	53/40	+13
Joe Biden	43/43	Even
Barack Obama	47/49	-2

Here are observations:

-Hillary Clinton is the most popular among Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.

-85% of Democrats view her favorably, followed by 83% for Michelle Obama, 82% for Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, and 73% for Biden.

-21% of Republicans see her positively, followed by 19% for her husband, 18% for Michelle Obama, and 10% for Biden and Barack Obama.

-58% of independents view her favorably, followed by 57% for her husband, 53% for Michelle Obama, 44% for Barack Obama, and 41% for Biden.

-There still appears to be some residual unhappiness from the 2008 primary season toward Bill Clinton by black voters. 23% of them see him unfavorably compared to 16% for Biden, 13% for Michelle Obama, 10% for Hillary Clinton, and 10% for Barack Obama. The good news for Hillary if she does make another try for the White House in 2016 is that any animosity toward her husband there is not rubbing off on her.

I'm sure some folks will look at these numbers and say Barack Obama should step aside for Hillary Clinton to run in 2012 but it's a lot easier to maintain a high level of popularity as Secretary of State than President and it's very debatable whether her numbers would be so good if she was actually the one in the White House. Nevertheless it's a good sign for her looking to the future that her numbers are strong even during a pretty difficult period for the Democratic Party.

Full results here

Clinton or Carter?

If you want to compliment Barack Obama, compare him to Bill Clinton. If you want to insult Obama, compare him to Jimmy Carter. That's the takeaway from our newest national survey which asked respondents who among the last five Presidents Obama most reminded them of.

Overall 41% picked Clinton and 35% said Carter with only 6% saying Ronald Reagan and 2% picking either of the Bushes. But there was a very significant divide in who said Clinton and who said Carter. Among voters who approve of the job Obama is doing 65% said he reminded them of Clinton with Reagan coming second at 9% and Carter third at 7%. With voters who weren't happy with Obama 63% said he was Carter redux to 18% saying Clinton.

Obama's approval rating stands at 47% with 48% of voters disapproving of him. That's a slight improvement from last month when his approval spread was 45/52. His numbers are pretty identical to a month ago with Democrats and Republicans, but he's seen a little improvement with independents from their disapproving of him by a 40/56 margin to their doing so 44/49.

Obama's job performance numbers may be in negative territory but 50% of Americans still say they'd rather have him to 43% who would prefer to have George W. Bush back. The numbers on that question pretty much mirror Obama's approval with partisan voters but independents would take Obama over his predecessor 53/36 even though they don't give him positive marks. The Obama/Bush divide has actually widened since PPP last investigated the question in April and found voters preferring him by only a 48/46 margin.

Full results here