Public Policy Polling

Perdue standing mostly unchanged

Bev Perdue may have had a bad news week after her comments about suspending Congressional elections, but she doesn't appear to be suffering much political damage from it.  We find Perdue trailing Pat McCrory this month by a 47-42 margin, only 1 point worse than the 45-41 deficit she faced last month.  This is the second closest Perdue's been to McCrory in our monthly polling all year, behind only September.

Perdue's approval rating has slipped some, from 40/44 last month to now 37/51.  37% actually matches the second best approval we've found for her all year though- what the decline shows is that Perdue was not able to hang on to the bounce she got after voters gave her strong marks for her handling of Hurricane Irene. But her current numbers are in line with where they've been for most of the year and don't suggest that she was particularly hurt by the fall out from her comments last week.

Perdue popularity vaults upward post-Irene

Raleigh, N.C. – North Carolinians give Gov. Bev Perdue extraordinary marks for her handling of Hurricane Irene, which recently hit the state.  64% approve, including a 43% plurality of Republicans, and only 20% disapprove.  As a consequence, her overall job performance numbers have jumped seven points on the margin from last month, which was already one of the best months of her term.  40% approve and 44% disapprove, her best net margin since April 2009, three months into her governorship.  That was the last time she was in positive territory as well.  Perdue is still low with her own party, at 57-26.  All of the improvement has come with Republicans (from 7-77 last month to 16-67 now) and independents (38-51 to 42-44).

Perdue is also now closer to her likely 2012 rival Pat McCrory than she has ever been, trailing him only 45-41, half her deficit from last month (47-39) and a huge improvement from a low of 50-36 in March.  While Democrats remain stubborn on their assessment of Perdue’s job performance, they are starting to flock toward her re-election bid, a sign she is addressing her main weakness.  Her partymates, who make up 44% of the electorate, now give her 70% of their vote and McCrory only 14%, versus 66-21 last month.  That is still down from the 88-9 reported by 2008 exit polls, when she slipped past McCrory by just over three points.  Republicans side 82-8 and independents 56-31 for McCrory, both similar to 2008.

Perdue emerges from Irene stronger

There was a lot of speculation in the days leading up to Hurricane Irene about how her handling of it would affect Bev Perdue's political fortunes and the answer is in: she passed with flying colors.  64% of voters in the state approve of how Perdue dealt with Irene to only 20% disapproving.  She gets strong support from across the party spectrum on that front with Democrats (80/11), independents (65/15), and Republicans (43/36) all giving her good marks.  The most important number for Perdue might be in northeastern North Carolina. That's where she's from and she did very well there in 2008 but her numbers there have lagged over the course of her time in office.  She gets stronger marks for her leadership on Irene there than anywhere else in the state with 72% thinking she handled it well. She's going to need to do well there to get a second term and this may be a first step toward restroring her standing with voters in her home region.

Perdue's good reviews on the Hurricane are positively impacting her overall approval numbers as well.  40% of voters approve of Perdue to 44% disapproving this month.  This is the first time since April of 2009 that Perdue's approval has hit the 40% mark in a PPP poll.  To give you an idea of how far she's come back, in September of 2009 only 26% of voters approved of her with 54% disapproving.  Perdue's almost breaking even with independents at 42/44, in contrast to what's usually been a high level of unpopularity with them.

McCrory maintains 8-point lead over Perdue

Raleigh, N.C. – Governor Bev Perdue’s approval numbers continue to trend in a positive direction.  Her 37% approval rating in PPP’s latest monthly poll of North Carolina is the highest measured since she received a thumb’s up from 41% in April of 2009, almost two and a half years ago, just a few months into her term.  With 48% disapproving, her -11 spread is her best in two months, when it was also -11, and other than a -9 margin last December, also the best since April 2009, when 40% disapproved (+1), the last time she was in positive territory.

While her job performance marks have ticked upward since last month, Perdue’s standing against her likely 2012 opponent Pat McCrory has not.  She again trails by eight points, 47-39, largely because she is still struggling to get up to par with her own party.  The governor wins the support of only two-thirds of Democrats, a fifth of whom defect to McCrory.  That compares to the 88-9 margin reported in the 2008 exit polls.  Republicans remain almost as united as they were then, 83-6 behind McCrory.  Though 22% of them remain undecided, more than Democrats (13%) or Republicans (11%), independents are actually closer, siding 43-35 for McCrory, than three years ago (59-37).

Perdue down 8 to McCrory

When it comes to Bev Perdue's poll numbers you can look at it one of two ways.

If you look at her situation just in terms of where she stands now it's a pretty sorry picture. Her approval rating is 37% with 48% of voters disapproving of her. Independents split against her 38/51 and only 58% of Democrats think she's doing a good job while at the same time 77% of Republicans think she's doing poorly. She trails Pat McCrory 47-39 for reelection, the same deficit she faced a month ago.

If you look at where she stands today in context with where her numbers have been in the past though, they look a little bit more promising. Six months ago she had an identical 48% disapproval to what she has now, but her approval rating was only 30%. So she's improved 7 points on that front. In fact her 37% standing right now is the best she's enjoyed since April of 2009, only 3 months after she took office. And while the 8 point deficit against McCrory is bad, it's not as bad as the 12 point one she had against him in February at 49-37.

NC voters: state budget bad for economy, favor Dems for G.A.

Raleigh, N.C. – Democrats have their largest lead since June in the generic ballot test for control of the North Carolina General Assembly, and their second-biggest edge since the calendar turned to 2010.  46% of Tar Heel voters would cast their ballot for the Democratic candidate in their district if the 2012 election were today, and 42% for the Republican.  Last month, it was a tie, 43-43, and in June, 46-41 in the Democrats’ favor.  The partisan lines have hardened, with both Democratic and Republican voters united behind their candidates, but independents have shifted 18 points in a month, from 47-25 in the GOP’s favor to only 36-32.  The Republicans led this measure in PPP polls all but one month in 2010, en route to retaking both houses of the legislature.

Mirroring last month’s results that showed 45% thought the legislature’s budget would lead to job losses, and only 18% thought it would create jobs, now only 14% think the budget has had a positive economic impact on the state, while 45% think the effect has been negative.  Even Republicans, by a 38-13 margin, view their party’s budget as disastrous.  Democrats and independents closely mirror the overall results.

Perdue still behind

Raleigh, N.C. – While Governor Perdue had slowly but steadily improved her position since March, her numbers are pretty stagnant this month. Just 34% of North Carolinians approve of Perdue’s performance compared to 49% who disapprove. While Republicans almost universally disapprove, 8-78, Democratic approval is only tepid, 55-25, and independents disapprove by a wide margin, 31-57.

As is true for the state legislature, few are enthusiastic about Perdue’s performance. Only 10% would give her an A, compared to 26% who give her a B, 24% a C, 18% a D, and 22% an F. Even among Democrats only 17% would give Perdue an A compared to 40% who would give her a B and 26% a C.

Perdue trails McCrory by 8

The story with Bev Perdue's poll numbers doesn't change much: her approval rating continues to be in the mid-30s and she continues to trail Pat McCrory in a head to head for reelection by a high single digit margin.

34% of voters this month say they're happy with the job Perdue's doing while 49% disapprove. The biggest obstacle to Perdue seeing a significant improvement in her numbers continues to be a lack of support for her from Democrats, only 55% of whom give her good marks to 25% who dissent. Usually you'd expect a Governor to be at 70% or higher with voters in their own party. Perdue's numbers with independents, at 31/57, have a lot of room for improvement as well.

Perdue continues to inch closer to McCrory

Raleigh, N.C. – As the public turns against Republican legislators and sides with the Democrats on their budget priorities, they are more and more seeing Governor Perdue in a positive light.  Her approval rating continues to creep upwards, now at 36%, with 47% disapproving, her best approval-disapproval margin in six months.

At the same time, voters’ views of Perdue’s likely 2012 opponent Pat McCrory continue to slide. In March, his favorability rating was 12 points higher than his unfavorability rating.  That margin has fallen all the way to one in three months, with 30% seeing him positively and 29% negatively.  The biggest change has come with Democrats (from -14 to -28) and independents, who still see him favorably, but only by four points, versus 12 in March.

Perdue continues to gain on McCrory

The biggest winner coming out of this year's North Carolina legislative session is probably Governor Bev Perdue.

In March she had a 30% approval rating and trailed 2008 opponent Pat McCrory by 14 points in a hypothetical rematch. Now as the popularity of Republicans in the state has cratered her approval is up to 36%, the best it's been in more than 2 years, and her deficit against McCrory is down to just 6 points.

Perdue is still in a very, very difficult position for reelection. But I would have pegged her chances at a second term below 20% three months ago and while I still think she's at less than 50/50 the odds have improved greatly.

Perdue trails McCrory now 45-39. Her biggest issue continues to be her base- while McCrory is winning 82% of the Republican vote, Perdue is getting only 65% of the Democratic vote. Perdue is also losing independents by 12 points but she could still get reelected with that kind of deficit if she was winning 80% of the Democratic vote.

The thing to watch for Perdue over the next 17 months is her black support. Right now she trails McCrory by 23 points with white voters. That's pretty much identical to her 22% loss with them in 2008. What has her in such a difficult position is that she's up only 61-15 with black voters, compared to her 90-9 victory with them last time around. If she was winning African Americans right now by the same margin as the first time she would be leading McCrory by 1 point. Democrats do almost always win 90% or more of the black vote but for whatever reason Perdue does have a persistent weakness with that group of voters. If she can overcome it her chances for reelection will get a lot better.

The other interesting trend we're seeing right now is a weakening in McCrory's favorability numbers. When we did our first 2012 Governor poll last November he was at a +14 spread (34/20). Now he's down 13 points to only +1 at 30/29. There hasn't been any change in his standing with Republicans over that period of time. But he's lost a great deal of his crossover appeal to Democrats, going from almost break even (24/27) to very unpopular (16/44) across party lines over the last 7 months. And although he's still on positive ground with independents his numbers are down with them as well from +16 (34/18) in November to now +4 (30/26).

McCrory has pretty fully embraced the new Republican legislative majority even as independents have turned sharply against it and Democrats have been reenergized by it, and he's paying a political price for that embrace with declining poll numbers. McCrory's probably still the favorite next year but his election as Governor is looking a lot less inevitable than it did at the start of the year.

Full results here