Public Policy Polling

Klobuchar cruising, Franken too

Raleigh, N.C. –  Amy Klobuchar’s job approval ratings are not quite as lofty as when PPP last polled Minnesota in January, but still almost twice as many of her constituents like their freshman senator as dislike the work she is doing.  Because of that, she leads her four unknown potential Republican opponents by almost identical margins.

57% approve and 29% disapprove of Klobuchar’s job performance, down a tick from 61-28 four months ago.  83% of Democrats, 61% of independents, and even 25% of Republicans think she is doing a good job.

At the same time, only 15-27% of the state’s voters claim to have an opinion on any of the GOP field, with Doc Severson the best-known and most popular.  17% see him favorably and 10% unfavorably.  But his relative notoriety means little, for Klobuchar still leads him by 28 points (55-27), the same deficit as has Pete Hegseth (56-28), and larger than those faced by Joe Arwood (56-29) or Kurt Bills (55-29).

Minnesota Senate Poll

The 2012 Minnesota Senate race may be up there for the most boring one we've polled on this cycle. Amy Klobuchar's one of the most popular Senators in the country, her opponents are all no names, and the main suspense from poll to poll is whether her leads over the GOP field will be closer to 20 points or 30.

They're closer to 30 this time around. Klobuchar has a 26 point lead over Kurt Bills (55-29), a 27 point one over Joe Arwood (56-29), and advantages of 28 points over Doc Severson (55-27) and Pete Hegseth (56-28).

Klobuchar's approval numbers at their usual strong level. 57% of voters approve of the job she's doing to only 29% who disapprove. She's incredibly strong with independents (61/26) and has a higher than normal 25% of Republicans happy with her work.

The GOP candidates are a blank slate to voters. Doc Severson is the best known at a still lowly 27% level of name recognition. From there it goes down to 20% for Bills, 16% for Arwood, and 15% for Hegseth. The undecideds in all these races skew Republican so it will get closer...but probably not too close.

Since the 2012 Senate race looks so boring, we took a look ahead to the 2014 contest. Al Franken's proven to be a stronger than might have been expected Senator. 50% of voters approve of him to 36% who disapprove. Democrats have ended up being pretty universally happy with him (85/4) and he's strong with independents as well (48/33).

Bachmann, Pawlenty unpopular in Minnesota

Raleigh, N.C. – Majorities of voters in Minnesota have unfavorable opinions of Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty, while Amy Klobucher and Al Franken look strong against potential opponents in their upcoming U.S. Senate races.

Voters hold an unfavorable opinion of Michele Bachmann by a 34-57 margin, including a 29-59 rating among Independents. 57% of  Minnesota voters also say Bachmann should not run for reelection to the House of Representatives while just 37% think she should. 59% of Independents and even 20% of Republicans say Bachmanm should not run for reelection.

Tim Pawlenty also sports a net negative favorability rating at 39-50. A majority of voters (39-51) say they would not support Pawlenty for statewide office in the future.

Bachmann, Pawlenty weak at home

Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty's Presidential bids appear to have done serious damage to their future political prospects in Minnesota.

Bachmann comes home to only a 34% favorability rating, with 57% of voters seeing her negatively. Only 37% of voters statewide think she should run for reelection to her House seat, while 57% believe she should step down.

Pawlenty's numbers are better, but not by much. Only 39% of voters have a positive opinion of him to 50% with a negative one. Similarly just 39% say they would support him in a future bid for statewide office. while 51% say they definitely would not.

For both Bachmann and Pawlenty the most logical next move would be a run for the US Senate.  But their prospects in a bid wouldn't be very good for either this year or 2014.  In hypothetical 2012 match ups, Pawlenty and Bachmann trail Amy Klobuchar by margins of 54-39 and 58-35 respectively.  They do a little better against Al Franken in prospective 2014 bids with Pawlenty down 49-43 and Bachmann trailing 54-39.

Klobuchar dominates in early re-election test

Raleigh, N.C. – In the almost six months since PPP last took a look at Amy Klobuchar’s bid for a second term, the Minnesota Senator has become even more popular, now the fourth or fifth best liked senator of 80 on which PPP has polled in the last year and a half.  A whopping 61% of the state’s voters approve of her job performance, and only 28% disapprove, up slightly from a 59-29 spread in early December.  She has improved slightly with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.  28% of the opposing party and 62% of independents like the work she is doing.

Klobuchar on very solid ground

Amy Klobuchar continues to rank as one of the most popular Senators in the country and looks safe for reelection next year no matter who the Republicans run against her.

61% of voters approve of the job Klobuchar's doing to 28% who disapprove. Her support from Democrats is pretty much unanimous (88/6), she has an unusual level of crossover popularity with Republicans (28% approval), and her numbers with independents are stellar at 62/27.

Klobuchar's popularity has pretty much driven off well known Republicans from challenging her. Announced candidate Dan Severson has 21% name recognition and Chris Barden and Dave Thompson, also mentioned as potential candidates, are known to only 18% of voters in the state. Klobuchar leads Barden and Thompson by 27 points each at 57-30 and 55-28 respectively and has a 28 point advantage over Severson at 56-28. In each of those match ups Klobuchar leads by around 30 points with independents and picks up about 10% of the Republican vote while losing only 1% of the Democratic vote.

Because the field of likely candidates is so obscure we also tested Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann against Klobuchar on the off chance one of them should decide to drop their White House bid and run for the Senate instead. Only 40% of Minnesota voters now have a favorable opinion of Pawlenty to 53% with an unfavorable one and he would trail Klobuchar by 13 points at 54-41. Those numbers are pretty bad but he looks downright popular compared to Bachmann. Only 33% of voters have a favorable opinion of her to 59% with an unfavorable one and she trails Klobuchar by 20 points at 57-37.

With those sorts of favorability numbers I doubt Bachmann or Pawlenty could win a statewide race for dog catcher in Minnesota, much less President or the Senate.

Klobuchar's one of the safest Senators in the country up for reelection next year. You want to look for a Minnesota politician who could have serious Presidential potential somewhere down the line? It's probably Klobuchar. There are few Democratic Senators who have as much appeal across party lines as her and she manages that popularity with independents and Republicans without antagonizing voters within her own party. That's a good formula if she can take it national.

Full results here

Giffords, Palin or Flake favored by partisans for AZ Sen. noms

Raleigh, N.C. – It should come as no shock that Democrats want Rep. Gabrielle Giffords’ name on the ballot for U.S. Senate next year.  She earns 46% of primary voters’ preferences, while former Attorney General Terry Goddard pulls 28%, and the other six possibilities tested—former Rep. Harry Mitchell, Rep. Ed Pastor, 2010 Senate nominee Rodney Glassman, Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon, 2010 Attorney General nominee Felecia Rotellini, and U.S. Attorney Dennis Burke—measure at only 2-5% apiece.

Senate Approval Ratings

During the second half of 2010 PPP polled on approval ratings for 59 different Senators. Here's some of the information on how they stack up:

-The average approval rating for a Senator right now is 43% approving to 40% disapproving. That suggests the old adage that voters hate Congress but love their Congressman holds true...to an extent...maybe hate Congress but don't mind their Congressman is a better way of putting it. At any rate 37 Senators had positive approval numbers in our most recent polls while 22 had negative ones.

-There's very little difference in the average approval of Republican Senators vs. Democratic Senators. Your average GOP Senator has a 43/37 approval spread. Your average Democrats comes down at 44% approval and 41% disapproval.

-Seven Senators posted a net approval rating of +20 or greater during the second half of 2010. The most popular is Amy Klobuchar at +30, followed by Scott Brown at +24, Judd Gregg at +23, and then Barbara Mikulski, Mark Warner, Chuck Schumer, and Olympia Snowe all at +22.

-There are only three Senators who posted a net approval rating of -20 or worse during the second half of 2010. They are Roland Burris at -39, Arlen Specter at -31, and Joe Lieberman at -21. Specter and Lieberman's numbers definitely speak to the perils of having it both ways...they don't really make Democrats or Republicans particularly happy and you can get away with that if independents love you for your independence but in their cases that has not happened. I will be interested to see if Lieberman's numbers are back in the right direction after the last month and I imagine we'll poll there sometime in January.

-The two most popular Senate delegations are Maine where Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins add up to a +39 approval spread and Maryland where Barbara Mikulski and Ben Cardin combine for a +36 approval spread. The two least popular are Connecticut where Lieberman and Chris Dodd are both pretty unpopular and add up to -37 and Illinois where Dick Durbin actually is on positive ground but Burris is so unpopular that together they add up to -37.

Here are the full numbers, there are probably a lot of other interesting points that I'm missing. And a methodological note, I'm using our most recent poll here except for states that we polled repeatedly in October- for those ones I'm using the poll that proved to come closest to the election outcome in the state:

Senator	Approval	Spread
Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)	59/29	+30
Scott Brown (R-MA)	53/29	+24
Judd Gregg (R-NH)	52/29	+23
Olympia Snowe (R-ME)	56/34	+22
Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)	54/32	+22
Mark Warner (D-VA)	54/32	+22
Chuck Schumer (D-NY)	57/35	+22
Susan Collins (R-ME)	53/36	+17
Jeff Bingaman (D-NM)	50/34	+16
John Cornyn (R-TX)	46/31	+15
Herb Kohl (D-WI)	50/35	+15
Ben Cardin (D-MD)	42/28	+14
Daniel Akaka (D-HI)	49/35	+14
Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)	50/37	+13
David Vitter (R-LA)	53/41	+12
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX)	45/33	+12
Tom Udall (D-NM)	48/36	+12
Jon Tester (D-MT)	50/40	+10
Kit Bond (R-MO)	45/36	+9
Jay Rockefeller (D-WV)	49/40	+9
Tom Carper (D-DE)	45/36	+9
Jon Kyl (R-AZ)	47/39	+8
Russ Feingold (D-WI)	50/43	+7
Carl Levin (D-MI)	47/40	+7
John Kerry (D-MA)	50/43	+7
Jim Webb (D-VA)	43/37	+6
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)	42/37	+5
Ted Kaufman (D-DE)	38/33	+5
Sherrod Brown (D-OH)	40/37	+3
Bill Nelson (D-FL)	36/33	+3
Al Franken (D-MN)	45/42	+3
Maria Cantwell (D-WA)	44/41	+3
Mark Udall (D-CO)	38/35	+3
Richard Burr (R-NC)	36/34	+2
Jeff Merkley (D-OR)	35/33	+2
Dick Durbin (D-IL)	47/45	+2
Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)	41/40	+1
Patty Murray (D-WA)	47/48	-1
Claire McCaskill (D-MO)	43/44	-1
Mitch McConnell (R-KY)	42/44	-2
Barbara Boxer (D-CA)	44/46	-2
Bob Casey (D-PA)	36/40	-4
George Voinovich (R-OH)	36/40	-4
Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)	41/46	-5
Carte Goodwin (D-WV)	17/22	-5
Kay Hagan (D-NC)	36/43	-7
John Ensign (R-NV)	41/48	-7
Harry Reid (D-NV)	44/52	-8
Michael Bennet (D-CO)	39/47	-8
Mark Begich (D-AK)	39/47	-8
George LeMieux (R-FL)	16/27	-11
Mary Landrieu (D-LA)	41/53	-12
Jim Bunning (R-KY)	32/45	-13
Max Baucus (D-MT)	38/53	-15
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)	37/53	-16
Chris Dodd (D-CT)	36/52	-16
Joe Lieberman (I-CT)	33/54	-21
Arlen Specter (D-PA)	29/60	-31
Roland Burris (D-IL)	19/58	-39

 

Klobuchar easily beats any 2012 opponent

Raleigh, N.C. – Amy Klobuchar is the most popular of 66 senators PPP has measured in 2010, and she won her first election to the Senate four years ago by 20 points.  But that was in a Democratic wave.  With the closeness of the still-contested 2010 gubernatorial race, and a generally more conservative electorate in the Midwest this year, Klobuchar could draw a strong challenge in 2012.  But even emptying the GOP bench, and in an electorate in which Democrats barely outnumber Republicans, no one can come within ten points of defeating Klobuchar in PPP’s first test of that race.

Klobuchar Formidable

Amy Klobuchar is overwhelmingly popular and would cruise to reelection at this point pretty much no matter who her Republican opponent was.

Klobuchar's approval rating is 59% with only 29% of voters disapproving of her. She is universally well liked by the Democratic base, sporting an 87/5 approval spread within her own party. Independents also approve of her by a greater than 2:1 margin, 62/29. And although only 26% of Republicans think she's doing a good job that's still a good deal above average for crossover popularity during a time when GOP voters have about as dim a view of Democrats as they possibly could.

Klobuchar leads a quintet of hypothetical Republican challengers by margins ranging anywhere from 10 to 18 points. Her closest competitor is Governor Tim Pawlenty, who she leads 53-43. She gets a whooping 97% of the Democratic vote against him, while Pawlenty benefits from a pretty unified base as well with 92% of the GOP vote. Klobuchar also cleans up with independents against him, leading 55-38.

Pawlenty gets 1% of the Democratic vote against Klobuchar. It makes you wonder how someone who can only pull 1% of the Democratic vote in his own state is going to have enough appeal across party lines nationwide to win a Presidential contest.

Faring next best against Klobuchar and the only one of the Republicans who voters in the state have a positive opinion of is Norm Coleman, who trails 54-40. He does worse than Pawlenty because he gets only 85% of the Republican vote and because he trails by 22 points with independents. Still Coleman's 43/42 favorability spread has to be at least a little bit encouraging to him. The last time PPP looked at Coleman, which was July 2009, his favorability was 38/52. He appears to have recovered a fair amount from the dip his poll numbers took due to the perception that he was a sore loser. That bodes well if he does make another run for office sometime in the future.

Michele Bachmann trails Klobuchar 56-39 and is extremely unpopular with voters in the state. Only 37% have a favorable opinion of her to 51% with an unfavorable one, and her deficit against Klobuchar with independents is a remarkable 26 points. She has basically no appeal beyond the Republican base and as a result it seems unlikely she'll ever have a much higher platform than serving in the House.

Klobuchar also leads Congressman Erik Paulsen 52-34 and Gubernatorial nominee Tom Emmer 56-38. For now it doesn't appear likely this will be a competitive race in 2012.

Full results here