Public Policy Polling

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

Of 17 states polled, US voters most divided on TX, least on PA

Raleigh, N.C. – In its latest national poll, in the first of a three-part series, PPP asked American voters how they feel about 17 different states.  Of this first bunch, Texas is the most polarizing—it has both the highest favorability and highest unfavorability rating.  Pennsylvania matches Texas in favor and has much less disfavor, making it the most popular.  The least liked are Illinois and Mississippi, two of only three (along with Utah) which more voters see negatively than positively.

Polling the States

Over the next 3 months PPP will be polling the favorability of all 50 states as part of its national surveys, in order to determine the most popular and least popular ones in the country.  We started off this month with the first 17.  Here's how they stack up from best net favorability to worst:

State	Favorability	Spread
Pennsylvania	40/11	+29
Indiana	31/12	+19
Idaho	30/11	+19
Arizona	39/22	+17
Maryland	31/15	+16
New Mexico	30/15	+15
Georgia	31/20	+11
Minnesota	27/17	+10
Rhode Island	26/16	+10
Texas	40/31	+9
Massachusetts	35/27	+8
Arkansas	25/20	+5
Alabama	27/26	+1
Louisiana	24/24	Even
Utah	24/27	-3
Mississippi	22/28	-6
Illinois	19/29	-10

Maloney catches Ireland

Raleigh, N.C. – The Republican race for Governor in West Virginia has shifted dramatically in Bill Maloney’s direction over the last three weeks and he now has the smallest of leads with 32% to presumptive front runner Betty Ireland’s 31%.  It’s a two person race with Clark Barnes at 8%, Larry Faircloth at 6%, Mark Sorsaia and Mitch Carmichael at 4%, Ralph William Clark at 1%, and Cliff Ellis at 0% rounding out the field.  14% of voters remain undecided even 36 hours out from election day, making this a complete toss up between Maloney and Ireland.

Republicans to Trump: You’re fired

Raleigh, N.C. – If there were any question that President Obama’s release of his long-form birth certificate two weeks ago effectively ended Donald Trump’s brief 15 minutes at the top of the Republican presidential heap, PPP’s latest national survey of Republican primary voters shows that Trump has fallen from first place by nine points in last month’s poll to a tie for fifth, barely ahead of the seventh-place candidate.

Some thoughts on the Alabama Results

Interesting results in the Alabama Gubernatorial primaries last night. Here are some thoughts:

-This race was going to be a tough one for Democrats no matter who their nominee ended up being, but there's no doubt their chances are better with Ron Sparks as their candidate than they would have been if Artur Davis had won the nod. The latest polls by PPP, Rasmussen, and Research 2000 showed Sparks polling an average of 3.3 points better than Davis against Bradley Byrne, who is the only clear runoff contestant for the Republicans at this point.

-When we polled the Democratic primary back in March 80% of likely voters said they supported President Obama's health care plan. The results would seem to be an indication that you really can't expect to win a primary when you opposed a bill that your party base overwhelmingly supports, and when that was the bill they probably paid the closest attention to in the last two years. Davis was still ahead of Sparks back then but based on our polling in other races Democratic voters generally assumed their Representative voted for the health care bill- whether they did or not. Sparks' campaign ensured that Democrats in Alabama knew the truth on that front.

-Finally, big upsets are caused by lack of polling. There was only one public poll on this contest in the last two months of the race and even that one came a couple weeks before the voting. Would we be surprised by the results if this contest had been getting the quantity of polling the Pennsylvania Senate primary did? Doubtful.

Shelby safe for reelection

Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama and his health care plan are not very popular in Alabama, and as a result Senator Richard Shelby has nothing to worry about when it comes to winning reelection this year.

Only 42% of Alabama voters approve of the job Obama’s doing with 55% disapproving.  He has the support of 88% of Democrats but stands at only 36% with independents and 5% with Republicans.  There is a huge racial gap in how voters feel about him, with 96% of African Americans but only 23% of whites giving him good marks.

Shelby Safe

It shouldn't come as much of a surprise in what's looking like a strong year for Republicans, but Alabama Senator Richard Shelby appears to be safe for reelection this fall.

55% of voters in the state say they'll vote for Shelby compared to just 37% who are inclined to vote Democratic. Shelby has a 54-29 advantage among independents and wins 93% of the Republican vote.

Shelby would probably be safe under any circumstances, but GOP prospects in Alabama this year are likely to be buoyed by Barack Obama's unpopularity in the state. Only 42% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 55% giving him bad marks. That actually makes this a rare state where Obama's popularity now is about the same as it was on election day in 2008. That's because Alabama has a heavy black population and his popularity with them has remained pretty steady even as it's gone downhill with whites. 96% of African Americans but only 23% of whites think Obama's doing a good job.

Opposition to the health care bill is strong, as is support for repealing it. 56% of voters say they don't like the bill that was passed last week to only 39% who express approval of it. 54% of voters think it should be repealed with 40% opposed.

Shelby and Jeff Sessions have virtually identical approval numbers. Shelby's approval spread is 44/34 and Sessions' is 41/34. Under normal circumstances those would be pretty mediocre, but in a political climate when voters are down on politicians to an unusual extent those represent above average ratings for Senators.

Full results here

Indistinguishable Senate Delegations

One of the things I found interesting about our Alabama poll was how indistinguishable Jeff Sessions and Richard Shelby's approval numbers are. Shelby's at a positive 44/34 spread and Sessions is at 41/34. It's really not that surprising though- unless you are an avid follower of the Senate, what is the difference between Sessions and Shelby? They're both conservative Republicans who don't draw a whole lot of national media attention.

Alabama's one of five states we've polled in the last six months where voters felt pretty much the same way about both of their Senators. The others are:

-New Mexico, where Jeff Bingaman and Tom Udall's numbers are literally identical at 48/36 each.

-Maine, where Olympia Snowe's at 51/36 and Susan Collins is at 48/30.

-Georgia, where Saxby Chambliss is at 38/43 and Johnny Isaskon's at 36/38

-New Jersey, where Frank Lautenberg's at 36/45 and Bob Menendez is at 34/45.