Public Policy Polling

Other notes from Alabama and Mississippi

In addition to asking about the Presidential race in Alabama and Mississippi we also touched on some other issues in those states:

-There's considerable skepticism about Barack Obama's religion with Republican voters in them. In Mississippi only 12% of voters think Obama's a Christian to 52% who think he's a Muslim and 36% who are not sure. In Alabama just 14% think Obama's a Christian to 45% who think he's a Muslim and 41% who aren't sure.

Mitt Romney dominates the 'Obama's a Christian' vote in both states. He leads Santorum 42-28 with those folks in Mississippi and has a 38-21 lead over him with them in Alabama. In Mississippi Newt's winning the 'Obama's a Muslim' vote 39-28, but in Alabama it's a three way tie with all of the leading candidates at 31%.

-We continue to see evidence that Rush Limbaugh's damaged his brand over the last few weeks. His favorability is only slightly over 50% in these two states where the Republican electorate is incredibly conservative- he's at 53/33 in Alabama and 51/30 in Mississippi. Given that our last national survey on Limbaugh, taken a few years ago, found him at 80/12 with Republicans it's safe to say he's fallen a long way in these states.

Very close race in both Alabama and Mississippi

Raleigh, N.C. – Tuesday looks like it's going to be a close election night in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a slight lead with 33% to 31% for Mitt Romney, 27% for Rick Santorum, and 7% for Ron Paul. And Alabama is even closer with Romney at 31% to 30% for Gingrich, 29% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.

Gingrich and Santorum are both more popular than Romney in each of these states. In Mississippi Gingrich's net favorability is +33 (62/29) to +32 for Santorum (60/28) and +10 for Romney (51/41). It's a similar story in Alabama where Santorum's at +32 (63/31), Gingrich is at +26 (58/32), and Romney's at only +13 (53/40).

Too close to call in Alabama and Mississippi

Tuesday looks like it's going to be a close election night in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a slight lead with 33% to 31% for Mitt Romney, 27% for Rick Santorum, and 7% for Ron Paul. And Alabama is even closer with Romney at 31% to 30% for Gingrich, 29% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.

Gingrich and Santorum are both more popular than Romney in each of these states. In Mississippi Gingrich's net favorability is +33 (62/29) to +32 for Santorum (60/28) and +10 for Romney (51/41). It's a similar story in Alabama where Santorum's at +32 (63/31), Gingrich is at +26 (58/32), and Romney's at only +13 (53/40).

The reason Romney has a chance to win despite being less popular in both states is the split in the conservative vote. In Mississippi 44% of voters describe themselves as 'very conservative' and Romney's getting only 26% with them. But he's still in the mix because Gingrich leads Santorum only 35-32 with them. In Alabama where 45% of voters identify as 'very conservative,' Romney's at just 24%. But again he remains competitive overall because his opponents are so tightly packed with those voters, with Santorum at 37% and Gingrich at 31%.

It's not really clear who, if anyone, has the momentum in these states. In Mississippi folks who've decided in the last few days go for Gingrich over Santorum 37-29 with Romney at only 15%. But in Alabama the late deciders go 38-29 for Romney over Santorum with Gingrich at 23%.

About all we know is that Ron Paul won't win any of these states on Tuesday...the other three candidates all have a shot in both of them.

Full results here

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

Of 17 states polled, US voters most divided on TX, least on PA

Raleigh, N.C. – In its latest national poll, in the first of a three-part series, PPP asked American voters how they feel about 17 different states.  Of this first bunch, Texas is the most polarizing—it has both the highest favorability and highest unfavorability rating.  Pennsylvania matches Texas in favor and has much less disfavor, making it the most popular.  The least liked are Illinois and Mississippi, two of only three (along with Utah) which more voters see negatively than positively.

Polling the States

Over the next 3 months PPP will be polling the favorability of all 50 states as part of its national surveys, in order to determine the most popular and least popular ones in the country.  We started off this month with the first 17.  Here's how they stack up from best net favorability to worst:

State	Favorability	Spread
Pennsylvania	40/11	+29
Indiana	31/12	+19
Idaho	30/11	+19
Arizona	39/22	+17
Maryland	31/15	+16
New Mexico	30/15	+15
Georgia	31/20	+11
Minnesota	27/17	+10
Rhode Island	26/16	+10
Texas	40/31	+9
Massachusetts	35/27	+8
Arkansas	25/20	+5
Alabama	27/26	+1
Louisiana	24/24	Even
Utah	24/27	-3
Mississippi	22/28	-6
Illinois	19/29	-10

Maloney catches Ireland

Raleigh, N.C. – The Republican race for Governor in West Virginia has shifted dramatically in Bill Maloney’s direction over the last three weeks and he now has the smallest of leads with 32% to presumptive front runner Betty Ireland’s 31%.  It’s a two person race with Clark Barnes at 8%, Larry Faircloth at 6%, Mark Sorsaia and Mitch Carmichael at 4%, Ralph William Clark at 1%, and Cliff Ellis at 0% rounding out the field.  14% of voters remain undecided even 36 hours out from election day, making this a complete toss up between Maloney and Ireland.

Republicans to Trump: You’re fired

Raleigh, N.C. – If there were any question that President Obama’s release of his long-form birth certificate two weeks ago effectively ended Donald Trump’s brief 15 minutes at the top of the Republican presidential heap, PPP’s latest national survey of Republican primary voters shows that Trump has fallen from first place by nine points in last month’s poll to a tie for fifth, barely ahead of the seventh-place candidate.

Some thoughts on the Alabama Results

Interesting results in the Alabama Gubernatorial primaries last night. Here are some thoughts:

-This race was going to be a tough one for Democrats no matter who their nominee ended up being, but there's no doubt their chances are better with Ron Sparks as their candidate than they would have been if Artur Davis had won the nod. The latest polls by PPP, Rasmussen, and Research 2000 showed Sparks polling an average of 3.3 points better than Davis against Bradley Byrne, who is the only clear runoff contestant for the Republicans at this point.

-When we polled the Democratic primary back in March 80% of likely voters said they supported President Obama's health care plan. The results would seem to be an indication that you really can't expect to win a primary when you opposed a bill that your party base overwhelmingly supports, and when that was the bill they probably paid the closest attention to in the last two years. Davis was still ahead of Sparks back then but based on our polling in other races Democratic voters generally assumed their Representative voted for the health care bill- whether they did or not. Sparks' campaign ensured that Democrats in Alabama knew the truth on that front.

-Finally, big upsets are caused by lack of polling. There was only one public poll on this contest in the last two months of the race and even that one came a couple weeks before the voting. Would we be surprised by the results if this contest had been getting the quantity of polling the Pennsylvania Senate primary did? Doubtful.