Public Policy Polling

Florida Question Suggestions

Florida won our vote on where to poll this weekend. Obviously we'll poll the races for President and Senate. What other questions or topics should we cover on this poll? Thanks as always for the good ideas!

A Pollster Explains What He Learns from Asking Voters About Harambe and Deez Nuts Vice

Donald Trump supporters want to build Atlantic Ocean wall to keep out immigrants, according to survey The Independent

DE BLASIO tries to contain conflicts -- TRUMP’s media graylist -- CUOMO vs EPA on upstate water crisis Politico

Trump's son spreads hoax 'WikiLeaks' letter implicating Clinton in polling bribe The Daily Dot

Duke More Popular than Donald Trump Chapelboro 

Clinton National Lead Steady

PPP's newest national poll finds a pretty steady race- but that the candidates are getting even more unpopular as the election approaches, with undecideds actually going up when they would usually be on the decline at this stage in the campaign. Hillary Clinton leads with 42% to 37% for Donald Trump, 6% for Gary Johnson, 4% for Jill Stein, and 1% for Evan McMullin, with 10% of voters still undecided. A month ago Clinton actually led 46/41 but both she and Trump's support has dropped by 4 points, with support for third party candidates increasing from 8% to 11% and the level of undecideds increasing from 5% to 10%. It's a similar story in the head to head- Clinton's 5 point lead is the same as a month ago, but now it's 48/43 instead of 50/45 with undecideds increasing from 5% to 9%.

One reason for the increased indecision is that both candidates have seen declines in their favorability ratings. They each saw some improvement in those in the immediate aftermath of their conventions, but those gains have already worn off. Clinton's net favorability is -11 at 41/52, down 5 points from when it was -6 at 45/51 a month ago. Trump's net favorability is -27 at 33/60, also down 5 points from -22 at 36/58 on our last poll.

One big thing in this election that continues to work to Clinton's considerable advantage is the popularity of President Obama. He has a 50/46 approval rating, about the best position we've found him in at any point of his second term in office. But more importantly, when voters are asked whether they'd rather have another 4 years of Obama as President or change to the very different direction of Trump, they say they'd rather keep Obama by a 53/41 spread. Clinton positioning herself as a continuation of the current administration is a winning approach.

One reason Trump's campaign may be struggling is that voters just don't buy into the premise that the United States is a dangerous country. Just 26% say they consider it to be, to 64% who don't think it's a dangerous country. That may help explain why Trump's ostensible outreach to African Americans and Latinos- playing up violence within their communities- isn't working. Only 13% of African Americans and Latinos think Trump actually cares about them, to 74% who say they don't think he does. Hillary Clinton is winning their voters 73-9 with Jill Stein at 6% and Gary Johnson at 3%.

Other notes from our national survey:

DC area accused of ‘appalling’ emergency preparedness WTOP

Poll: Here’s how voters want lawmakers to fix the budget deficit NM Political Report

“Undercover” Voters May Exist, but They Won’t Save Donald Trump Slate

National Poll Question Suggestions

We're due for our monthly national poll this weekend. Obviously we're going to poll the Presidential race, generic Congressional ballot, etc but what other questions or topics should we cover on our national poll? Thanks as always for the good suggestions!

Utah Ready for Hatch to Move On; More Progressive Than You Might Think

-Utah voters are ready for Orrin Hatch to move on. They're closely divided in feelings about his job performance, with 41% approving of him to 43% who disapprove. But when it comes to the question of whether he should run for another term in 2018, just 19% say Hatch should seek reelection to 71% who think he should retire. There's bipartisan consensus when it comes to Hatch's future with Republicans (62/27), independents (80/10), and Democrats (84/9) all thinking that he should call it quits when this term is up.

-Utah might be one of the most conservative states in the country, but we still find that voters there side with Democrats on a variety of key issues:

*81% of voters in the state support background checks on all gun purchases, to only 13% who oppose them. That includes support from 90% of Democrats, 79% of independents, and 78% of Republicans.

*78% of voters in the state support barring those on the Terror Watch List from buying guns, to only 12% who are opposed to that. There's support from 84% of Democrats, 78% of Republicans, and 73% of independents for closing the terror gap.

*65% of voters in the state think the Senate should move forward with hearings on Merrick Garland's nomination to the Supreme Court, to only 16% who are opposed to them. 87% of Democrats, 67% of independents, and 57% of Republicans support hearings for Garland.

*65% of voters in the state think there should be an independent commission for redistricting, to only 15% who think legislators should draw their own district lines. 78% of independents, 73% of Democrats, and 55% of Republicans support independent redistricting.

*64% of voters in the state support legalizing medical marijuana, to only 24% opposed to it. That includes support from 86% of Democrats, 71% of independents, and 53% of Republicans.

*61% of voters in the state support increasing the minimum wage to at least $10 an hour, including 86% of Democrats, 61% of independents, and 52% of Republicans. 

*52% of voters in the state support expanding Medicaid, to only 27% opposed to it. Support from Democrats (90/5) and independents (56/30) for Medicaid Expansion is pretty overwhelming and even Republicans (37/34) narrowly support it.

New poll shows Trump holds 15-point lead in Utah, thanks largely to Mormon vote The Salt Lake Tribune

Poll: Clinton leads Trump in NM, Toulouse Oliver leads SOS race The NM Political Report

Donald Trump's Alienation of Hispanic Voters Puts Texas in Play HoustonPress

PPP Survey: If Trump Says It, His Supporters Will Believe It Chapelboro

WUNCPolitics Podcast: A Peak Behind The Polls WCQS

Trump Unpopular, But Still Heavily Favored in Utah

In a year where much has been made of voters not liking their choices for President, there's probably nowhere that's truer than Utah. Donald Trump has a 31/61 favorability rating in the state. That makes him the popular candidate there, by comparison, as Hillary Clinton comes in at 23/72.

Clinton's unpopularity makes Utah probably a step too far for Democrats even in a year where Trump's weakness as a candidate is putting unusual states on the map. Trump leads the state with 39% to 24% for Clinton, with Gary Johnson at 12%, Evan McMullin at 9%, Darrell Castle at 2%, and Jill Stein at 1%. If voters had to choose just between the two major candidates, Trump's lead would grow to 20 points at 53/33.

Much has been made of Trump's unpopularity with Mormons and certainly that's a real thing- only 33% of Mormons see him favorably to 56% with an unfavorable opinion. But that still puts him in much better position than Clinton who comes in at 12/84 with Mormons. When it comes to the horse race Clinton is actually tied for third among Mormons in the state- Trump gets 44%, McMullin 13%, and Clinton and Johnson tie for third at 12%. Echoing a finding we made the last time we publicly polled Utah in 2011, non-Mormon Utah would be one of the most Democratic states in the country. Among non-Mormons in the state, Clinton leads by 16 points with 46% to 30% for Trump, and 11% for Johnson.

Even in a state where Trump's up big, problems loom for him in the polls. 65% of voters in the state think he needs to release his tax returns, to only 22% who don't think it's necessary for him to. That issue continues to pose doubts about him for voters, and even among his own supporters 44% think he needs to release them with only 36% saying he doesn't need to. Only 39% of voters think Trump can be trusted with nuclear weapons, to 48% who think he can't be. Trump's losing his battle with the media- by a double digit margin (45/34) voters say that the New York Times is more respectable than Trump is. And some of his recent statements are a step too far even for his supporters- Trump may want to be called 'Mr. Brexit' but only 6% of voters think he deserves credit for the United Kingdom voting to leave the European Union, to 70% who say he deserves no such credit. Even among Trump's own voters, just 11% buy the premise that Trump deserves credit for the Brexit vote. 

Utah Question Suggestions

Utah won our vote on where to poll this week. Obviously our main focus will be the Presidential race. But if there's ever anything else you've wanted to see polled in Utah let us know because we poll it about every 5 years so it's speak now or forever hold your peace. We always appreciate the question suggestions!

Texans Down on Cruz

PPP's new Texas poll finds that Ted Cruz has become unpopular in the state, and he could be in trouble for winning the Republican nomination in 2018. Overall only 39% of voters in the state approve of the job Cruz is doing, to 48% who disapprove. It was already clear from national polling that Donald Trump had come out ahead in his feud at the GOP convention with Cruz, but we find that even in Texas 52% of Republicans now say that they prefer Trump as their nominee this year to only 38% who would go with Cruz.

The skirmish with Trump seems to be contributing to an overall weakening of Cruz's position with Republicans in the state. Only 50% of GOP voters say they'd like Cruz to be their Senate candidate again in 2 years, to 43% who say they would prefer someone else. He hovers right around that 50% mark in hypothetical match ups against both Michael McCaul (51/19) and Dan Patrick (49/27). Against Rick Perry though, who shares Cruz's universal name recognition, Cruz faces a 9 point deficit at 46/37. 

One place it looks like Cruz would not face as much trouble is the general election. He would lead Julian Castro 48/36 and Wendy Davis 49/37 in hypothetical match ups. Those margins for Cruz pale in comparison to Greg Abbott's standing with voters though. Abbott is proving to be quite a popular Governor- 54% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 30% who disapprove- and he would lead hypothetical contests against Castro and Davis 57/28 and 57/32 respectively. The fact that Cruz leads by 12 points and Abbott by 25-29 points in the same sample where Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by only 6 points is a pretty strong commentary on Trump's weakness as a candidate.

The opinions of Texans show the extent to which a number of progressive policy goals have reached incredibly mainstream popularity, even in a state as traditionally conservative as Texas:

-89% of voters in the state support background checks on all gun purchases, to only 7% who oppose them. They're supported by 94% of Democrats, 91% of Republicans, and 80% of independents.

-83% of voters in the state support barring those on the Terror Watch List from buying guns, to only 10% who are opposed. That's supported by 85% of Republicans, and 82% of both Democrats and independents.

-Voters in the state support an assault weapons ban, 48/43. That's because Democrats are far more unified in their support for one (70/21) than Republicans are in their opposition to it (34/55).

-72% of voters in the state support increasing the minimum wage to at least $10 an hour, compared to only 14% who think it's fine where it is now, and 11% who would like to eliminate the minimum wage altogether. A minimum wage hike to at least $10 gets support from 94% of Democrats, 74% of independents, and 53% of Republicans.