Public Policy Polling

Poll shows HB2 unpopular Charlotte Observer

Poll: 50 Percent of Voters Want HB2 Repealed, Governor's Race Tied TWC News

The Declining Influence of the NRA May Translate Into Policies Which Save Lives Huffington Post

PPP: Trump 43, Clinton 41, among N.C. voters Fayetteville Observer

Legislators, residents protest insurance mergers CT Post

Benchmark Polling Analysis: Why #WomenTrumpDonald Blue Nation Review

Burr, Ross in statistical dead heat in NC Senate race The Hill

 

 

 

Georgia Question Suggestions

We're going to poll Georgia this weekend. We'll certainly look at the Presidential race and the Senate race, but what other topics or questions should we tackle as long as we're looking at the state? Thanks as always for the good suggestions!

Trump, Burr Have Small Leads in North Carolina

PPP's new North Carolina poll finds Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton 43-41 in the state, with Gary Johnson at 3% and Jill Stein at 2%. Trump's 2 point lead represents a 4 point improvement from our March poll of the state, when Clinton was ahead by a couple points. The movement has come completely among Republicans. In March Clinton was up 79-13 among Democrats, and now she's up 79-12 among Democrats. In March Trump was up 49-32 among independents, and now he's up 45-27 among independents. But in March Trump was only up by 63 points among Republicans at 73/10, and now he has a 76 point lead among them at 81/5. That's the entire reason the race has shifted from a slight Clinton advantage to a slight Trump advantage. 

If a 2 point advantage for Trump held through November, that would match Mitt Romney's margin of victory in 2012 in North Carolina. That's a trend we've found in a lot of our recent polling- the race is shaping up very similarly to how things went between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

Geography	Most Recent PPP Poll	2012 Results
North Carolina	Trump +2	Romney +2
New Mexico	Clinton +8	Obama +10
Arizona	Trump +2	Romney +10
National	Clinton +4	Obama +4
West Virginia	Trump +27	Romney +27
Ohio	Clinton +3	Obama +3

Every place we've polled in the last month we've found the Clinton/Trump race within a few points of where the Obama/Romney race ended up with the exception of Arizona, where there were a disproportionate share of Republican voters on the fence and we would expect them to eventually come home and give Trump a broader advantage. There was so much talk earlier this year of Clinton winning some sort of historical landslide that expectations got out of whack and now fuel perceptions that she's doing really poorly, but the bottom line is she's pretty much where Obama was in an election that while relatively close in the popular vote ended up as an electoral college landslide.

For what it's worth Bernie Sanders leads Trump 43/40 in North Carolina with Johnson at 3% and Stein at 2% getting the same share of the vote they get in a race with Clinton. The difference between how Clinton and Sanders perform against Trump continues to come completely among younger voters. With those under 45 Clinton is ahead by 4 at 42/38, but Sanders is up by 16 at 48/32.

North Carolina's Senate race continues to be surprisingly competitive. Richard Burr's lead is just 3 points at 39% to 36% for Deborah Ross, and 8% for Libertarian Sean Haugh. Burr continues to be pretty unpopular with only 28% of voters approving of the job he's doing to 40% who disapprove. Ross is largely a blank slate to voters with 64% having no opinion about her one way or another. Opinions split evenly at 18/18 when it comes to her favorability/unfavorability. 

HB2 Continues To Have Little Support From North Carolinians

PPP's newest North Carolina poll continues to find that HB2 is very unpopular, and voters want to see it repealed.

Only 35% of voters in the state support the bill, to 44% who are opposed to it. We continue to find that there are a lot more Republicans (28%) who are opposed to it than there are Democrats (16%) in support of it. 50% of voters in the state would like to see it repealed, compared to only 38% who think it should stay on the books. That includes a 46/39 spread among independents in favor of repealing it.

The reason for voters wanting HB2 repealed are pretty straightforward- they think it's hurting the state both economically and in terms of its national reputation. Overall only 29% of voters believe HB2 is helping North Carolina, t0 56% who think it's hurting. That includes a 29/53 spread with independents. Specifically on the issue of the economy, only 12% think it's having a positive impact on the state to 50% who think it's hurting. Even among Republicans 14% more think it's negatively affecting the state's economy than positively. And just 24% of voters think HB2 is helping the state's national reputation, to 53% who think it's hurting.

One final reason for HB2's unpopularity is that voters don't believe it's achieving its stated purpose of making the state safer. Only 36% think it's made North Carolina safer to 47% who don't think it has. And among women, who the bill purportedly protects from men in their bathrooms, just 28% think it's made the state safer to 53% who think it has not. On the whole 2 months after HB2's passage it's not getting any more popular.

North Carolina's major state elections are shaping up to be very tight this year. We find the Governor's race tied with Pat McCrory and Roy Cooper both at 41% and Libertarian Lon Cecil getting 5%. We've never found either candidate ahead by more than 2 or 3 points, and now they're dead even. This looks like it will be the country's premier Governor's race this fall. McCrory continues to be unpopular, with 44% of voters approving of him to 49% who disapprove, making it 35 months in a row now we've found him under water in our polling. But Cooper's image has taken a little bit of a hit in the last month as well, as negative tv ads started running against him- he's gone from a 37/27 favorability to 30/33 since our April poll.

Polls: Clinton Has Rocky Hill To Climb  The Philadelphia Tribune

The X factor Newnan Times-Herald

ADVISORY: With Teacher Shortages on the Rise, Colorado Education Leaders and the TeachStrong Campaign to Highlight Need for Qualified, Diverse Teachers Center for American Progress

Libertarians hoping unpopularity of Trump, Clinton raises Johnson's profile​​

National public poll: Woods currently better than Day Golf Channel

John McCain’s Trumpian nightmare: New poll shows veteran Arizona senator in the political fight of his life Salon

Arizona poll: Donald Trump has narrow lead over Hillary Clinton ABC15 Phoenix

Discouraging polls force John McCain to scramble in Arizona MSNBC

Donald Trump and Conspiracy Theories: What a Poll in 2011 Signaled New York Times

Poll: Jan Brewer could hurt, not help, Donald Trump in Arizona Arizona Republic

Poll: Majority of D.C. Residents Support Easing Tax Cuts to Boost Social Services Washington City Paper

Polling shows the deliberately misinformed republican party, unites their base  Inquisitr

Avril Lavigne says the Nickelback hate is just "Not Cool" MTV

New polls show fans want Bonds and Clemens in Hall of Fame, but not DH CBS Sports

Republicans Are Uniting Around Donald Trump. How Long Can Paul Ryan Hold Out?  Slate Magazine

The persistence of the reality gap matters MSNBC

GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump is less popular than Nickelback, traffic jams, lice New York Daily News

 

 

2018 Arizona Races Could Be Competitive

-PPP's new Arizona poll finds that voters in the state really just don't like any of their politicians very much. Governor Doug Ducey has just a 35% approval rating, to 41% who disapprove of him. Senator Jeff Flake is worse off with only 27% of voters expressing approval of him to 41% who disapprove. We tested Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema as a potential Democratic alternative to each of them in 2018. She trails Ducey 43/36, but is only two points behind Flake at 38/36. Flake could find himself with issues in a Republican primary too. Even within his own party only 31% of voters approve of him to 36% who disapprove. Flake became unpopular very quickly after entering the Senate, and he hasn't been able to do much to change that over the last three years.

-Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio has a 44/46 favorability rating statewide. What's interesting though is that while he's on positive ground with a 45/40 favorability in the rest of the state, in his own county he faces an upside down 44/50 favorability. Whether that actually translates into electoral vulnerability this fall remains to be seen, but he clearly isn't exactly a beloved figure with his constituents.

-82% of voters in Arizona support background checks on all gun sales, to only 10% of voters who oppose them. They have strong bipartisan support with 94% of Democrats, 79% of independents, and 74% of Republicans expressing favor for them. 69% of voters in the state want to see the minimum wage increased to at least $10 an hour, compared to just 15% who think the current minimum wage is fine, and 13% who would like to see it eliminated altogether. 91% of Democrats, 68% of independents, and 49% of Republicans support getting it up to at least $10. Finally we find 62% of voters in the state support the EPA Clean Power Plan to only 35% who are opposed to it- that includes support from 84% of Democrats and 61% of pivotal independent voters.

North Carolina Question Suggestions

We're going to do our monthly North Carolina poll this weekend- obviously we'll look at the races for President, Governor, and Senate as well as the latest on HB 2. What other questions should we ask about on our North Carolina poll? Thanks as always for the great suggestions!

McCain In Deep Trouble in GOP Primary; Trump, Clinton Close in AZ

PPP's new Arizona poll finds that John McCain has a negative approval rating with Republican primary voters, and is at pretty serious risk of losing nomination for another term. Only 35% of GOP voters approve of the job McCain is doing to 50% who disapprove. He's in particularly poor standing with conservative voters. Among 'somewhat conservative' voters his approval spread is 33/52, and among 'very conservative' voters it drops all the way down to 18/67.

McCain is polling at only 39% in the Republican primary field. He's benefiting from having multiple opponents. Kelli Ward is at 26%, Alex Meluskey at 4%, Scott McBean at 3%, and Clair Van Steenwyk at 2%. 27% are undecided. McCain is very strong among moderates, leading Ward 60-10. But among 'somewhat conservative' voters he leads just 34-29, and with 'very conservative' ones he's down 35-28. When you narrow the field down to just a choice between McCain and Ward, it's a tie at 41%. Ward is polling this competitively at this point despite having only 41% name recognition.

Even if McCain does manage to survive the Republican primary, it's not going to be a walk in the park for him in the general. His overall approval rating is 34/52, and he leads Ann Kirkpatrick only 42/36 in a head to head match up. The race is close despite Kirkpatrick having only 58% name recognition at this point. If Ward advances to the general election it looks like this contest will basically be a toss up- she gets 37% to 35% for Kirkpatrick so it's pretty much a wash. 

One issue that's tricky for McCain right now is the Supreme Court fight. 61% of voters in the state say they support confirmation hearings for Merrick Garland, compared to only 24% who are opposed to them. By a 17 point margin voters say they're less likely to vote for a Senator who opposes hearings- 40% say that stance makes them less likely to vote for someone, compared to only 23% who consider it a positive. But among Republican voters there's 35/44 opposition to hearings, and voters say by a 16 point spread that they're more likely to vote for someone who opposes hearings. So McCain's obstructionism might be helpful in getting him through the primary, but it's a completely different story when you get to the general. For instance independents support hearings, 65/21.

The Presidential election is pretty competitive in Arizona at this point. Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton just 40-38, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. There's a significant 'Never Trump' contingent among Arizona Republicans. While Clinton gets 80% of the Democratic vote, Trump is only getting 68% of the GOP vote at this stage. That number tracks with our finding that just 65% of Republicans say they're comfortable with Trump as their nominee to 22% who say they aren't. When you narrow the field to just Clinton and Trump though, Trump's lead goes up to 45/41 because his share of the GOP vote increases to 77%. 15% of Republicans are undecided compared to 8% of Democrats, so if the party really unites around Trump eventually he'll get close to being up by the kind of margins Republicans are accustomed to in the state but for now it's tight.

Sports Poll!

PPP's annual professional sports poll finds that the NFL continues to be the only professional sport a majority of voters in the country are interested in:

Sport	% Considering Themselves Fans
NFL	55%
MLB	42%
NBA	36%
NASCAR	26%
NHL	22%
Golf	19%
MLS	14%

-There may be a slight warning sign to the NFL within the numbers though. 60% of voters over 45 consider themselves to be NFL fans, while only 48% under 45 consider themselves to be. So the sport could have a hard time sustaining its current level of popularity over time. Football also has the biggest gender gap in fandom of the sports we polled- 64% of men consider themselves to be fans of the league, while only 46% of women do.

-For the most part there aren't a lot of differences along party lines when it comes to which sports people are fans of, with the exception of the NBA. 49% of Democrats consider themselves to be NBA fans, while only 31% of Republicans do. Soccer also has a notable party gap- 19% of Democrats but only 10% of Republicans identify themselves as fans of MLS.

-America is pretty clearly behind the Warriors when it comes to fan allegiances in this year's NBA playoffs. 25% are pulling for them to 16% for the Heat, 14% for the Spurs, 10% for the Cavaliers, 7% for the Thunder, and just 2% for the Raptors. The numbers reflect the growing popularity of the Warriors- when we did a similar poll at this time last year they only edged out the Cavs 19-15 in terms of who people were rooting for. As good as the Warriors have been this year though, only 31% of NBA fans think they could have beaten the 1996 Chicago Bulls, compared to 54% who think Michael Jordan, the indisputable GOAT, would have led his team to victory.

-Kobe Bryant is getting quite a popularity bounce on his way out the door. Last year when we asked people who their favorite NBA player was he got 14%, putting him in third place. Now he leads the list with 27% to 25% for Stephen Curry, and 22% for LeBron James. No one else gets over 5%- it's a pretty clear triumvirate when it comes to the league's most popular players. Curry is the most broadly liked of the group- he has a 66/8 favorability, showing that almost nobody dislikes him. James (60/23 favorability) and Bryant (59/29) are still very popular, but somewhat more divisive than Curry.

Despite Bryant's new found popularity there is broad agreement that it was time for him to retire. 83% think he's leaving at the right time, to only 12% who think he should have come back for another year.

Finally 37% of NBA fans think a sequel to Space Jam should star LeBron James, compared to 26% who think it should be Stephen Curry.