PPP's final polls for Governor in Florida, Michigan, and Illinois find incredibly tight contests in all three states.
Florida is the closest. Rick Scott and Charlie Crist both have 44%, with Libertarian Adrian Wyllie polling at 6%. PPP usually has a policy of not releasing poll results to the decimal, but when we find a tie on our final poll of the cycle somewhere we make an exception. Crist is at 44.0% to 43.8% for Scott- in terms of raw respondents to the poll that's 526 for Crist and 524 for Scott. Wyllie may be playing a spoiler role for Crist's hopes of defeating Scott- those saying they support Wyllie would prefer Crist to Scott by 25 points, 43/18. In a straight head to head contest Crist leads Scott 47/46.
Scott (41/48 approval rating) and Crist (40/47 favorability rating) are nearly identically unpopular. They've gone in very different directions over the course of this election cycle. Scott's net approval rating has improved by 17 points from the -24 spread at 33/57 that we found for him in January 2013. Crist's net favorability rating has declined by 18 points from the +11 spread at 49/38 that he began with at the start of last year. Crist may win yet but it's ended up being a much more competitive race than it looked like it might be at the beginning of the cycle.
The news down ballot is good for Republicans in Florida. Pam Bondi leads by 9 for Attorney General, Adam Putnam is up 11 for Agriculture Commissioner, and Jeff Atwater is up 14 for Chief Financial Officer. And although it has 53/41 support,the amendment to legalize medical marijuana looks like it will fall below the 60% mark it needs to pass.
In Michigan Rick Snyder is clinging to a 46/45 lead over Mark Schauer. Our polling in this race has been remarkably consistent since Labor Day. Snyder has led by 1 points, 2 points, 1 point, been tied, and now he leads by 1 point on our final poll. Supporters of the third party candidates and leaners prefer Schauer over Snyder by 12 points though, so in a straight head to head contest they are tied at 47. After being under water for most of the election cycle on his approval, Snyder's final numbers come in at 46% approve and 45% disapprove, mirroring his one point lead.
Gary Peters looks to be headed for a double digit victory in the Michigan Senate race, leading Terri Lynn Land 51/38 in the full field and 54/41 head to head. Much of the coverage of this campaign has focused on Land being a poor candidate, and she is. Just 35% of voters see her favorably to 50% who have an unfavorable opinion. But Peters has proven to be a pretty strong candidate in his own right, with a +14 net favorability rating at 46/32. That's a lot better than most Senate hopefuls in the country can boast this year.
Republicans lead the other down ballot races in Michigan. Bill Schuette has a 47/37 advantage for Attorney General and Ruth Johnson is up 46/38 for Secretary of State.
Pat Quinn is one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. Only 31% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 54% who disapprove. But he's still clinging to a slight lead for reelection over Republican challenger Bruce Rauner, 47/45. Only 58% of Democrats approve of the job Quinn is doing, but 83% are nevertheless voting for him. Rauner is under water on his favorability but still in much better standing than Quinn, at 39/42. This is a race where the Libertarian candidate could play spoiler for GOP hopes. Chad Grimm is only polling at 3%, but those voting for him say they would pick Rauner over Quinn 54/14. In a head to head without him Quinn and Rauner would be tied at 48.
In the Illinois Senate race Dick Durbin leads Jim Oberweis 51/41. Durbin is narrowly popular with a 44/41 approval spread, while Oberweis is narrowly unpopular with 32% of voters seeing him favorably to 37% who have an unfavorable opinion.