A new Public Policy Polling survey of Arizona voters finds that the general election match up for Governor between Democrat Fred DuVal and Republican Doug Ducey would start out as a tie, if Ducey wins the primary as recent public polls have suggested.
Key findings from the survey include:
-DuVal and Ducey are both at 35%, with 12% of voters saying they support Libertarian Barry Hess. The high level of support for Hess reflects the unusual amounts of support we’re finding for third party candidates across the country right now as voters are unhappy with both parties. DuVal overcomes Arizona’s GOP party registration advantage due to a 16 point lead with independent voters.
-Ducey is entering the general election badly damaged by the divisive primary campaign. Only 26% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 41% who have a negative one. He’s at 17/57 with independents and a weak 43/24 even with Republican voters. DuVal remains largely undefined with 60% of voters having no opinion about him and those who do have one pretty evenly split.
-Democrats have an opportunity in Arizona because voters are unhappy with Governor Brewer and the current direction of the state. Only 41% of voters see Brewer favorably to 47% who have an unfavorable opinion of her. And there’s a general feeling that the state is on the wrong track- 59% of voters express that sentiment to only 30% who think the state is headed in the right direction under its current Republican leadership.
An unpopular incumbent and a damaged Republican nominee are combining to make the Arizona Governor’s office a great opportunity for a Democratic pick up this fall.
PPP interviewed 588 likely voters on August 24th and 25th on behalf of Progress Now Arizona. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%
Full results here