PPP's newest Arkansas poll continues to find an incredibly tight race for the Senate. Republican Tom Cotton is at 41% to 39% for Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor, 4% for Green Party candidate Mark Swaney, and 3% for Libertarian Nathan LaFrance. All four PPP surveys of this race in the last year have found the candidates within 3 points of each other one way or another. When supporters of the third party hopefuls are asked who they would choose between the two major party candidates, Cotton's lead remains 2 points at 43/41, suggesting this may be a race where their presence on the ballot won't make a meaningful difference either way.
At least for now Republicans appear to be positioned for a sweep at the state level. In the race for Governor Asa Hutchinson leads Democratic foe Mike Ross 43/38, with Green Party candidate Joshua Drake at 4% and Libertarian Frank Gilbert at 3%. This actually represents a slight improvement for Ross from April when we found him trailing by 8 points. When the third party candidates are taken out of the mix Hutchinson's lead is 46/40.
Republicans hold leads ranging anywhere from 4 to 11 points in all of the down ballot races, although they are still somewhat up in the air because at least 20% of voters are undecided in each of them and many of them find a Libertarian candidate currently polling at 10%.
The widest leads come for Lieutenant Governor where Tim Griffin leads John Burkhalter 41/32 and for State Land Commissioner where John Thurston leads Mark Robertson 40/29. Elvis Presley is polling at 10% as the Libertarian hopeful in that race, down from his 17% standing in April.
The news is not all bad for progressives in Arkansas. The initiative to raise the minimum wage in the state is headed for overwhelming passage with 63% of voters supporting it to just 29% who are opposed. It has pretty much unanimous support from Democrats (90/4), majority support from independents (54/35), and comes pretty close to break even with Republicans (42/48). It gives Democrats a good issue to run on this fall.
Also looking to be headed for passage is the state's amendment to allow alcohol sales statewide- 52% of voters are in favor of that to 40% who are opposed. That one plays out very much as a generational issues with more than 60% of voters under 45 supporting the change, but seniors opposing it 41/52.
Full results here