Rick Scott's early negative advertising blitz against Charlie Crist has paid off in a big way. What was a 12 point lead for Crist over Scott last fall at 50/38 is now a tie race at 42% each, and the biggest thing that's changed over the last 8 months is how Floridians feel about Crist.
Scott remains an unpopular Governor, although his approval ratings are not quite as bad as they have been at some times during his term. Only 39% of voters think he's doing a good job to 48% who disapprove, up from 33/55 in late September. Those are still numbers that would generally have you headed for defeat. But Crist has seen a precipitous decline in his image with voters in the state. Where they were closely divided on him last fall with 43% rating him favorably and 42% unfavorably, now just 32% of voters see him in a positive manner with his negatives spiking to 48%.
Crist's image is basically unchanged with Democrats. But much of his residual appeal to Republicans has faded off- where he still managed a 25/65 rating with them last fall that's now declined to 16/74. And he finds himself upside down with independent voters as well at 24/49.
If there's a silver lining for Crist it's that the 16% of voters who remain undecided are not very big on Scott- he has just a 23% approval rating with them to 51% who disapprove. The undecideds also skew female, Hispanic, and younger and they voted for Barack Obama 43/39 in 2012. Even though Crist's support has been knocked down, Scott still hasn't been able to build his up below the l0w 40s. It's a toss up but there are at least a few things that could go Crist's way.
Other notes from Florida:
-Florida's medical marijuana amendment that will be on the ballot this fall continues to appear headed for easy passage, with 66% of voters saying they support it to just 25% who are opposed. Those numbers are almost identical to 65/23 when we last polled on it in January, indicating the proposal is not losing any steam. Democrats and independents are overwhelmingly in support of it, and even Republicans narrowly favor it 44/42.
-Looking ahead to 2016 Floridians narrowly approve of Marco Rubio, 45/40. He would lead Debbie Wasserman Schultz 48/40 in a hypothetical head to head. If he were to run for President and the Republican candidate was Allen West instead it would be much closer- West leads Wasserman Schultz just 41/40. Despite their big national profiles a plurality of Floridians have no opinion about either Wasserman Schultz (41%) or West (44%).
Full results here