PPP's newest Alaska poll finds the Republican primary for Senate becoming increasingly less competitive. Dan Sullivan is now out to a 14 point lead with 40% to 26% for Mead Treadwell, 14% for Joe Miller, and 3% for John Jaramillo.
The race has been moving more and more in Sullivan's direction in our polling over the last nine months. In July Treadwell led Sullivan 33/25. Since then Sullivan's support has moved from that 25% mark last summer to 30% in February and now 40%. Meanwhile Treadwell dropped from 33% in July to 25% in February and is now pretty much holding steady with his 26% mark.
In a relief to Republicans Miller's support has been going in the wrong direction as well, from 24% over the summer to 20% in February to now 14%. His favorability even with GOP primary voters is only 28/52, and there no longer appears to be a real threat of his winning the nomination. Sullivan is dominating with the conservative voters who helped Miller win the 2010 primary.
Mark Begich leads all of his potential Republican opponents, but the match ups are pretty close across the board. He's up 42/37 on Sullivan with third party candidates combining for 7%, he's up 41/33 on Treadwell with third party candidates combining for 9%, and he's up 43/27 on Miller with third party candidates combining for 6%. His leads over Sullivan and Treadwell stood at 4 and 6 points respectively in February, so the race is largely unchanged. Voters are closely divided in their feelings about Begich with 44% approving of him and 45% disapproving.
Begich is staying ahead despite the state's GOP lean because of his strong support from independents. He leads Sullivan by 19 points, Treadwell by 20 points, and Miller by 27 points with them. He also has a more unified party with 76-79% of Democrats saying they'll vote for him, while only 55-70% of GOP voters say they're committed to their potential party nominees for this fall.
Sean Parnell is polling at only 37% for reelection as Governor, but with opposition to him split between Democrat Byron Mallott (27%) and independent Bill Walker (17%) it's still enough to give him a double digit lead. Voters in the state are pretty evenly divided on Parnell's performance with 42% approving and 44% disapproving of him.
Full results here