Four weeks out from primary day, the Republican race for Senate in North Carolina continues to look like it's headed for a runoff. Thom Tillis leads the GOP field with 18% to 15% for Greg Brannon, 11% for Mark Harris, 7% for Heather Grant, 6% for Ted Alexander, 5% for Alex Bradshaw, 2% for Jim Snyder, and 1% for Edward Kryn. 34% of voters remain undecided and Tillis will probably have to win most of them in order to get to the 40% mark needed to avoid a runoff.
Tillis' small lead comes in spite of having far greater name recognition than the rest of the Republican field. 60% of voters know enough about him to have formed an opinion compared to 31% for Brannon and 30% for Harris, the other serious Republican contenders at this point. Tillis and Harris have both seen their support increase 4 points from a month ago, while Brannon has gained just one point. No one else seems to be gathering any momentum in the primary race.
The general election story is the same as it's been for six months now- Kay Hagan has negative approval numbers and finds herself within the margin of error against all of her potential Republican opponents. 41% of voters approve of the job Hagan's doing to 48% who disapprove, pretty much what we've found ever since ads started attacking her over Obamacare in October.
Hagan does tie Jim Snyder at 41, and the one Republican who she actually leads is her most likely opponent- she has a slim 43/41 edge over Thom Tillis. In Tillis' case being well known is not necessarily a positive thing- his time at the helm of an unpopular legislature has left him with a 20/39 favorability rating. The more generic GOP hopefuls that few voters have heard of all do a little bit better than him in the general.
Barack Obama's unpopularity in the state continues to be something Hagan will have to overcome- 44% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 52% who disapprove. All in all there hasn't been much change in the state of this race over the last six months- it remains a toss up with Hagan weak but still in the game because her opposition is weak too.
Full results here