PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds that Thom Tillis' support has declined after a month defined by his gaffes on the campaign trail, and that he's now tied for the Republican Senate nomination with Greg Brannon. Tillis and Brannon are both at 14%, followed by Heather Grant at 11%, Ted Alexander and Mark Harris at 7%, Alex Bradshaw at 6%, Jim Snyder at 4%, and Edward Kryn at 1%. A month ago Tillis led Brannon 20/13.
Tillis drew a lot of attention last month for his comments on Obamacare and the minimum wage, and what he said about those things doesn't play well with the Republican base. On the day he filed Tillis made news by suggesting he didn't think there should be a minimum wage- but even among GOP primary voters only 27% support eliminating it to 56% that would be opposed to such a move. Even more problematic for Tillis could be his statement expressed last week that 'Obamacare is a great idea that can't be paid for.' Only 15% of primary agree with Tillis' sentiment that 'Obamacare is a great idea,' compared to 78% who say they disagree with it.
Overall it continues to look like the Republican primary contest is headed for a runoff unless someone really breaks away in the final eight weeks before the primary. With 8 candidates and almost all of them getting some level of support, it is looking like it will be hard for anyone to reach the 40% threshold to win the primary outright.
The general election for the Senate race continues to look like a toss up, with every potential match up within 2 points one way or the other. The numbers are a slight improvement for Kay Hagan compared to a month ago- she leads Thom Tillis 45/43, Edward Kryn 43/41, and Heather Grant 43/42, she is tied with Alex Bradshaw, Greg Brannon and Mark Harris at 43, and she trails Jim Snyder 43/42 and Ted Alexander 45/43. A month ago she trailed in head to heads with all of the Republicans except Kryn.
Hagan's approval rating continues to be poor at 41/50, and Barack Obama's 42/55 approval rating in the state continues to make things harder for her. But with the Republican primary field looking like a mess this is the first time we've seen any improvement in the overall picture for her in six months.
Full results here