PPP's newest Louisiana poll finds that the race has tightened quite a bit over the last six months. In August Mary Landrieu led Bill Cassidy 50/40 and in October she had a 48/41 advantage, but now she's up just a single point on Cassidy at 45/44.
The big thing that's changed over that period of time is Landrieu has lost much of her crossover support from Republicans. Six months ago she trailed by only 42 points with GOP voters at 65/23, but now that's a 63 point deficit at 77/14.
Early attack ads on Landrieu have taken a big toll on her approval ratings. She was on slightly positive ground in August at 46/43, but now faces a -15 spread with only 37% of voters giving her good marks to 52% who disapprove. It's no coincidence that her 52% disapproval rating is almost identical to the 53% disapproval rating Obamacare has in the state, compared to only 33% of voters who approve of it. Similarly to Kay Hagan the early ad blitz seems to have had the effect of creating a strong correlation between attitudes toward Landrieu and attitudes toward Obamacare.
It seems likely Cassidy will be Landrieu's runoff opponent unless another Republican candidate gets into the race. For the primary Landrieu's at 43% to 25% for Cassidy with the other GOP hopefuls Paul Hollis and Rob Maness at 5% and 3% respectively. Neither of them seems to be making much of a charge toward Cassidy, partially because neither is particularly well known with name recognition for each of them hovering around 30%.
Robertson is pretty universally well liked among Republicans (59/10 favorability) and despite his controversial comments in December Democrats (35/24) have a positive opinion of him as well. Overall favorability for the show stands at 53/22, slightly improved from its 47/21 spread in August.
This race is now looking like the toss up most people expected it to be. You might expect things to be worse for Landrieu given Barack Obama's 39/56 approval rating in the state weighing her down, but the Republican candidates aren't setting the world on fire either and for now it remains an extremely competitive race.
Full results here