Following the controversy over his 'Uncle Sugar' speech Mike Huckabee has...taken the lead in the Republican primary race for 2016. He's at 16% to 14% for Jeb Bush, 13% for Chris Christie, 11% for Rand Paul, 8% each for Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Paul Ryan, 6% for Scott Walker, and 5% for Bobby Jindal.
There's been more movement than usual over the last month, with Huckabee and Bush each gaining 3-4 points, and Chris Christie and Ted Cruz each falling by 6 points. Cruz had been leading the field among 'very conservative' voters for months but in the wake of Huckabee's press attention last week he's taken the top spot with that group. He's at 20% to 15% for Paul, 11% for Cruz, and 10% for Bush. In the wake of Bridgegate Christie's supremacy with moderate voters is being challenged- a month ago he led Bush by 23 points with them, but now his advantage is down to 3 points at 28/25.
The best liked person we tested on this poll with Republican primary voters is actually Sarah Palin who has a 70/20 favorability rating. She's followed by Huckabee at 64/18, Ryan at 58/18, Paul at 58/21, Bush at 56/18, Cruz at 45/20, and Christie at 40/38. Most of those numbers are similar to what they were a month ago but Christie's seen a substantial drop from +18 at 47/29 a month ago to his new +2 net favorability.
Christie's problems are even bigger with the overall electorate though. His net favorability has dropped 27 points in a month from +12 at 43/31 to now -15 at 31/46. He's gone from having the best numbers of the potential Republican candidates to the worst in the span of a month. Christie had been popular because of his unusual amount of appeal to Democrats and independents. But now he's become deeply unpopular with both of those groups, dropping from 38/36 to 20/58 with the former and from 46/28 to 29/44 with the latter.
Last month Christie led Clinton in a head to head, 45/42. Now Clinton has the upper hand on him at 45/43. That's similar to the small leads Clinton holds over the rest of her potential Republican opponents- she's up 45/43 on Bush, 46/44 on Ryan, 46/43 on Huckabee and Paul, and 47/41 on Cruz.
Clinton continues to be as dominant as ever when it comes to the Democratic primary. 67% want her to be the candidate to 7% each for Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, 2% each for Cory Booker and Andrew Cuomo, and 1% each for Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O'Malley, Brian Schweitzer, and Mark Warner. Clinton continues to have the strong support of every Democratic constituency- she's over 60% with liberals, moderates, men, women, whites, African Americans, and Hispanics alike.
If Clinton sits it out Joe Biden is the favorite, getting 32% to 16% for Warren, and 7% each for Booker and Cuomo. And if Biden doesn't run either it's Warren 24%, Cuomo 13%, and Booker at 11% with no one else over 4%.
Full results here