Polls

Michaud edges LePage, voters don’t care about his sexuality

| Dustin Ingalls

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
The needle has moved little if at all in the Maine gubernatorial election in the two and a half months since PPP last took a look at it. In late August, Mike Michaud took the lead over incumbent Republican Paul LePage for the first time, with 39% to LePage’s 35% and independent Eliot Cutler at 18%. Now, Michaud tops LePage 38-36 over Cutler’s 15%.

The good news for Michaud is that the 10% who at this point are undecided lean pretty strongly his direction. They are largely moderate Democratic and independent women who voted for Obama and still approve of his job performance by a 48-41 margin, versus the president’s 46-49 overall spread. They cannot stand LePage, giving him a 26-60 job rating, far worse than his already meager 41-54 overall standing. They also like Michaud (41% favorable, 19% unfavorable) much more than Cutler (28-16).

This is backed up by two-way matchups that continue to show that LePage has likely maxed out his support or nearly so. Michaud would top him 53-39 head-to-head, and Cutler would beat him 49-38. That 39% support versus Michaud is only three points higher than LePage gets in the three-way race. At 72-73% of the Republican vote in all three variations of the race, the governor has reached his ceiling with his base already, and he has little room to grow with either independents or Democrats, unlike Michaud.

Bolstering Michaud’s decision to come out and the lack of erosion in his numbers is the fact that 71% of voters do not care about his sexual orientation. 77% of undecided voters, 76% of independents, and even 61% of Republicans agree.

Cutler’s support continues to fall to Michaud’s advantage. The independent earned 26% of the vote in January, 18% in August, and only 15% now. In that time, Michaud has moved from 30% to 39% to 38%. LePage has mostly plateaued at 34%, 35%, and 36%.

“Mike Michaud’s sexual orientation is a non issue to Maine voters,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “His poll numbers now are basically identical to what they were on our last poll in August.”

PPP surveyed 964 Maine voters from November 8th to 11th . The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.2%. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Paul LePage’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Eliot Cutler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Michaud?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q5 If the candidates for Governor next year were
independent Eliot Cutler, Republican Paul
LePage, and Democrat Mike Michaud, who
would you vote for?
Eliot Cutler ……………………………………………… 15%
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 36%
Mike Michaud………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q6 If the candidates for Governor next year were
just Republican Paul LePage and Democrat
Mike Michaud, who would you vote for?
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 39%
Mike Michaud………………………………………….. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
just Republican Paul LePage and independent
Eliot Cutler, who would you vote for?
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 38%
Eliot Cutler ……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q8 Does Mike Michaud’s announcement that he’s
gay make you more or less likely to support
him for Governor next year, or does it not make
a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 12%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 15%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 71%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q9 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%

Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%

Q13 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%

Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%

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