PPP's final Virginia poll finds Democrats leading in all three statewide races. In the Governor's race Terry McAuliffe has the advantage with 50% to 43% for Ken Cuccinelli and 4% for Libertarian Robert Sarvis. In the Lieutenant Governor's race Ralph Northam is headed for a blowout win, getting 52% to 39% for E.W. Jackson. The intrigue will be in the Attorney General contest where Mark Herring is only up 47/45.
McAuliffe is likely to win on Tuesday because voters see him as the lesser of two evils. Both candidates are deeply unpopular with Cuccinelli posting a 39/52 favorability rating, and McAuliffe's coming in at 36/52. But among voters who dislike both candidates- and they account for 15% of the electorate- McAuliffe leads Cuccinelli 61/16. Those voters who don't like either major party standard bearer are responsible for McAuliffe's entire lead in this poll.
Beyond that McAuliffe leads because he has a 47/39 advantage with independents and because he has a more unified party, with 82% of Democrats saying they'll support him to 79% of Republicans for Cuccinelli. Moderate voters prefer McAuliffe 66/24. McAuliffe is keeping it unusually close for a Democrat in Virginia with white voters, trailing only 52/42, and he has the requisite dominant lead with African Americans at 86/11.
Whether Republicans will learn any lessons if they lose on Tuesday is unclear. Overall voters in the state think the GOP would have been better off nominating Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling than Cuccinelli by a 49/22 margin. But among Republican voters, they still think Cuccinelli was the right candidate to put forth by a 40/36 margin.
From the 'what might have been' department we asked people how they would vote if they did have the option of supporting Bolling as an independent candidate, and he pulls 22%. McAuliffe would still lead Cuccinelli if he had been in the race but by a considerably tighter spread of 34/32.
It looks like the main intrigue in Virginia Tuesday night will be the Attorney General's race, as polling has been suggesting for months.
Full results here