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October 17, 2013

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Dominick J.

I find this poll very short sighted by Republicans who would still vote for McConnell, who was among the leaders for the shut down, AND feeding those constituents who follow him a bunch of lies and misinformation about Obamacare...

Bart

41% of Kentucky voters have a favorable opinion of the tea party??? I assume that guarantee McConnell's loss in a primary, and increases Grimes' chance of winning seat?

Scott

The problem with this poll is that McConnell wasn't a proponent of the shutdown.

The race is essentially tied now. Once McConnell starts running ads tying Obama to Grimes, it will be all she wrote.

Rob

Bart -- the polls seemed odd to me. I live in Kentucky, and the poll ignored that a serious challenge to McConnell is being made in the primary, and there is a real possibility that it will be Grimes vs. Matt Bevin in November 2014. And if so, that should be a close and very refreshing race -- it will be the first time in years that both parties put up a candidate that is "clean" and who doesn't have the trail of dirt that McConnell and his previous democrat opponents have brought to the race.

The poll was unfair, especially to Kentucky's informed Republicans, who dislike McConnell almost as much as the Democrats do. No doubt if you told Kentucky Republicans their only two choices were Grimes or McConnell, a fair number of them would opt for the Grimes (the democrat). However, if Bevin wins the primary, virtually all of those disenfranchised Republicans will return. But what this poll ignored is that most Kentuckians prefer a "conservative" for federal offices; and despite a 2-1 democrat over Republican registration, the state has voted Republican in the last 4 Presidential elections, 5 of the 6 house seats are held by Republicans, and it has been over 20 years since a democrat has won a US Senate election. While Mitch McConnell might be an "easy beat" for Grimes this time next year, if Matt Bevin manages to unseat McConnell in the Republican primary, Grimes may very well lose next fall.

Matt Bevin is not yet a household name for most Kentuckians, but given that Mitch McConnell is already running his mudslinging (and patently false) ads against Bevin, you know McConnell is concerned that his own party will throw him out on his ear.

Todd Dugdale

This survey is a very good baseline for trends. Hopefully, you will ask about about Tea Party support and favourables in future surveys. If the Tea Party loses its lustre in the purple States, then the GOP favourables will decline with it. The enduring advantage that Republicans have had is "unified messaging", where they switch in lock-step from one contradictory message to another. With the increasing fractures, that won't be possible, and "Independent" voters will leave the bubble reality. Nobody that leaves the bubble ever willingly goes back in.

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