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September 19, 2013

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Dustin

Wisconsin seems to be getting a little more red if Clinton of all people is doing so poorly in a state that hasn't voted for a republican president since Reagan. This next race might be interesting.

Jay Thompson

The results of this poll were interested. Giving all of the numbers and such. I am disappointed same-sex marriage wasn't polled. I feel this was a great set given the favorability/approve ratings for Baldwin and Johnson and others.

Shocked and bothered

pbrower2a

Remember that this poll is about people deemed likely to vote in a midterm election, which in Wisconsin implies an electorate more R than the usual. The sample of voters went 49-45 for Obama, which is much more R-friendly than what one can expect in 2016.

The gubernatorial and senatorial elections may involve an electorate more like a 49-45 partisan split which will better serve Republicans. But the 53-46 split will be more likely in 2016. Give the Democrats an advantage larger than 4% and 'Favorite Son' Paul Ryan loses.

Dustin

So pbrower2a, you are claiming every poll PPP is doing on this issue is irrelevant? I don't think it works that way. With two different candidates running in the next cycle, there is no way to predict how independents will break. The breakdown could be 49-45, 53-46, or a completely different result. The 53-46 outcome was for an incumbent with a strong get out the vote organization against a weak candidate. There is no legitimate way to claim all people will cast ballots for the same party in 2016 that they did in 2012.

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