Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest
national poll finds Ted Cruz is now the top choice of Republican primary voters
to be their candidate for President in 2016. He leads the way with 20% to 17%
for Rand Paul, 14% for Chris Christie, 11% for Jeb Bush, 10% each for Marco
Rubio and Paul Ryan, 4% for Bobby Jindal, and 3% each for Rick Santorum and
Cruz has gained 8 points since our last national 2016 poll in July while everyone
else has more or less stayed in place. He's made himself the face of a
government shutdown over Obamacare, and the Republican base supports that by a
64/20 margin. It's not surprising that Republicans identifying as 'very
conservative' support a shutdown 75/10, but even the moderate wing of the party
supports it by a 46/36 margin.
PPP's newest national poll finds Ted Cruz is now the top choice of Republican primary voters to be their candidate for President in 2016. He leads the way with 20% to 17% for Rand Paul, 14% for Chris Christie, 11% for Jeb Bush, 10% each for Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan, 4% for Bobby Jindal, and 3% each for Rick Santorum and Scott Walker.
Cruz has gained 8 points since our last national 2016 poll in July while everyone else has more or less stayed in place. He's made himself the face of a government shutdown over Obamacare, and the Republican base supports that by a 64/20 margin. It's not surprising that Republicans identifying as 'very conservative' support a shutdown 75/10, but even the moderate wing of the party supports it by a 46/36 margin.
Cruz is leading the GOP field based especially on his appeal to 'very conservative' primary voters, who he gets 34% with t0 17% for Rand Paul and 12% for Paul Ryan. Voters who fall into that ideological group make up the largest portion of the Republican electorate at 39%. With moderates Cruz gets only 4% with Christie leading at 34% to 12% for Jeb Bush and 10% for Marco Rubio, but they only account for 18% of GOP voters and thus aren't all that relevant to Cruz's prospects for winning a Republican nomination.
Our numbers also suggest that Cruz is now viewed more broadly as the leader of the Republican Party. When asked whether they trust Cruz or GOP leader Mitch McConnell more, Cruz wins out 49/13. When it comes to who's more trusted between Cruz and Speaker John Boehner, Cruz has a 51/20 advantage. And when it comes to Cruz and 2008 GOP nominee and Senate colleague John McCain, Cruz wins out 52/31. He now has more credibility with the GOP base than the folks who have been leading the party for years.
Raleigh, N.C. – Strong support
for raising the minimum wage and opposition to the government shutdown show
Massachusetts sticking to its liberal values in our latest poll.
61% support increasing the minimum wage to $10.50 per hour, including 70% of
women and 32% of Republicans. 57% oppose shutting down the government unless
Obamacare is defunded. Half of respondents support a ballot initiative to allow
workers to earn one hour of sick time for every 30 hours they work.
Democratic leaders Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Gov. Deval Patrick have slightly
higher approval ratings than they did five months ago. Warren’s approval jumped
to 52-39 from 44-39, and Patrick’s was 50-43, up from 48-41.
-Elizabeth Warren has quickly become the most popular politician in Massachusetts. 52% of voters approve of her to 39% who disapprove, up from a 44/39 spread in May. Her +13 net approval rating ranks her ahead of Barack Obama (+11), Deval Patrick (+7 approval at 50/43), and Ed Markey (voters are evenly divided) among the state's politicians.
Even more popular than Warren herself is a potential ballot initiative she's gotten behind to raise the minimum wage in the state to $10.50. 61% of voters support that to only 30% who are opposed. Democrats support it overwhelmingly, a majority of independents favor it (52/36), and there's even 32% support from Republicans.
Another worker's rights issue drawing support from Massachusetts voters is a proposed initiative to guarantee one hour of sick time to employees for every 30 hours they work. That concept has 50/31 support.
-Only 31% of Massachusetts voters support a government shutdown unless Obamacare is defunded, to 57% who oppose it. It's worth noting though that even in a state where the most famous Republicans- people like Scott Brown and Bill Weld- are known for their moderation, there's still 53/32 support for a shutdown with the GOP base. That suggests Republicans pretty much everywhere are willing to shut down the government over Obamacare.
-Gay marriage being legal in Massachusetts still doesn't seem to be destroying too many people's lives. 85% of voters in the state say it's either had a positive or no impact on their lives, with only 15% saying it's been a negative. Even among Republicans 66% say it hasn't negatively affected them. Voters in the state support gay marriage being legal by a greater than 2:1 margin, 60/29.
Florida won our vote on where to poll this weekend. Our main focus will be the Governor's race so please let us know what candidates you'd like to see us poll for that. And of course we're grateful for all other Florida question suggestions as well...thanks as always for all the good ideas!
Raleigh, N.C. – New PPP polls in
8 key North Carolina State Senate districts find that the political landscape
has shifted in such a way that Democrats have a lot more opportunities to eat
into the Republican majority next year than could have ever been imagined even
six months ago.
This is a product of three things:
The unpopularity of the Republican legislature itself
The swift decline in Pat McCrory’s approval numbers
even in districts that he won overwhelmingly last year
The incumbent Republican state senators in these
districts are a combination of unknown and unpopular- none of them have
established credibility with their constituents.
Based on our polling we find 2 districts where Democrats have a clear
advantage for next year, and another 6 that can be classified as toss ups based
on what we’re seeing right now.
PPP is best known for putting out highly accurate polling on key political races across the country, but we also do affordable private research for candidates and organizations. Why pay tens of thousands of dollars for a survey when one of the most reliable companies in the nation can do it for less?"