PPP's look at the New York City mayoral race finds Bill de Blasio on the cusp of winning the Democratic nomination outright Tuesday. He's polling at 38% to 19% for William Thompson, 13% for Christine Quinn, 9% for Anthony Weiner, and 5% for John Liu with minor candidates combining for 7% of the vote and 10% still undecided.
If undecided voters broke in proportion to their current level of support- of course no guarantee- de Blasio would win with 42% to 21% for Thompson. Even if de Blasio falls short of 40% Tuesday though he's still in very strong position for a potential runoff, leading Thompson 53/33 and Quinn 67/21 in hypothetical match ups.
De Blasio's in a strong position for Tuesday because he is popular with every segment of the electorate. His overall favorability is 62/18, and he leads with men and women, Hispanics, whites, African American, and Asians, young voters and older voters, voters in every borough, and liberals, moderates, and conservatives alike.
Thompson is also very popular with favorability numbers almost as strong as de Blasio's at 57/18. The problem for him is that among voters who like both Thompson and de Blasio, de Blasio has a 53/22 advantage. The other major contenders are extremely unpopular with Quinn sporting a 34/48 favorability rating and Weiner at 20/66.
In the race for Comptroller Eliot Spitzer has a slight lead over Scott Stringer at 45/41, although with 14% of voters undecided it remains very much a toss up. If Spitzer really wins it will be a pretty unusual race in that his net favorability rating (-2 at 43/45) is 31 points lower than Stringer's (+29 at 51/22). But Spitzer's name recognition is 88% to Stringer's 73% and if he pulls it out it may suggest that bad name recognition is better than no name recognition. There continues to be a massive racial divide in this race with Stringer leading by 26 points among white voters, but Spitzer up 43 with African Americans and 24 with Hispanics.
Between the question of whether de Blasio can get to 40% and who will win the Comptroller race it looks like it could be a long night Tuesday in New York City.
Full results here