PPP's newest Alaska poll finds that Hillary Clinton would have a chance at winning the state in 2016...but only if Sarah Palin was the Republican candidate for President. Clinton would lead Palin 49/40 in a hypothetical match up. Only 18% of Alaskans think Palin should run in 2016 to 77% who think she shouldn't, and even among Republican voters 72% think she should sit out the race.
Clinton trails the other Republicans we tested, although she would make the state closer than it's been in a while. Chris Christie leads her by 8 points at 46/38, Jeb Bush leads her by 7 at 49/42, Rand Paul is up 6 at 49/43, Marco Rubio has a 3 point advantage at 45/42, and Paul Ryan leads by a single point at 47/46.
Reflecting the strong standing we've seen for him a lot of places lately Rand Paul is the top choice of GOP voters in Alaska with 18% to 14% for Sarah Palin, 13% for Chris Christie, 11% for Jeb Bush, 9% for Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan, 8% for Ted Cruz, 5% for Rick Santorum, and 2% for George Zimmerman. In a Palin and Zimmerman-less field Paul gets up to 20% with Bush at 15%, Christie and Ryan at 14%, Rubio at 10%, Cruz at 9%, and Santorum at 6%.
Other notes from Alaska:
-Lisa Murkowski's approval numbers are way down from February. Then 54% of voters approved of her to 33% who disapproved, but now that spread has declined all the way to 47/41. She's most popular with independents (51/36), followed by Democrats (47/38), and then Republicans (40/49). Her numbers with independents are pretty similar to then but she's dropped a net 25 points with Democrats and 22 with Republicans since then.
-Sean Parnell's Senate Bill 21, which cut taxes on oil profits in Alaska, is not very popular in the state. Only 30% of voters support it to 46% who are opposed. Republicans favor it 39/23, but independents (32/51) and Democrats (13/69) oppose it by wider margins.
-It speaks to the Packers' national appeal that they narrowly edge out the Seahawks as Alaska's favorite NFL team, 21/20. The Broncos and 49ers tie for 3rd at 10%, followed by the Cowboys at 9%, Raiders at 3%, and Giants and Chargers at 2%. The Mariners win out as Alaska's favorite MLB team by a wider margin at 20% to 10% for the Cubs, 9% for the Yankees, 8% for the Red Sox, 4% for the Braves, 3% for the Giants, 2% for the Angels, and 1% for the A's.
-And finally 12% of Alaskans say they can see Russia from their houses to 87% who can't. That's comparable to the 11% who said they could see Russia when we polled on the question in 2010.
Full results here