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July 03, 2013

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Eddie

This is what I suspected about Hillary Clinton polling in Texas, as many commentators have mentioned. I don't think 2016 will be a swing state, possibly by 2024.

HunterC

Thanks for doing the question on employment discrimination in another state.

It's very instructive to see the same crosstabs on the same question in different states.

me.yahoo.com/a/lPgP7ZcLge_1A1ISvKm4A15FAwc-

I think you're misreading that Eddie. As unsurprising as it would be if Clinton isn't close when 2016 actually comes, in this poll, she's close to Cruz and Bush and still leading Perry. That's enough to call it competitive. I'm starting to think 2016 is when Republicans have to work a bit in Texas, albeit still with a high likelihood of winning. But even just having to keep money in Texas instead of spending it elsewhere would be a big deal.

John

May you please release your 2016 primary polls? You posted on Twitter that Cory Booker got third place for the Dems, but we've never seen anything else out of them.

SocraticGadfly

You're missing the point on Cornyn. That 31 percent of apathetics show that he's vulnerable to being primaried. That's why he's become even more Cruz-like.

Sam

The 2005 vote on the TX Marriage Amendment was 76-24. Looking just at the support/oppose numbers, there has been a 19% decrease in opposition and a 10% increase in support.

Based on PPP's 2012 polling, the pro-SSM side could fairly claim 2% of the undecideds with 7% going to the anti-SSM side, bringing support up to 36%, or a 12% increase over 2005 and opposition up to 64%, a 12% decrease from 2005.

If these trends continue, TX would likely flip to majority SSM support in about a decade. But the reality is that change accelerates as support grows and pro-SSM views become more conventional. It takes much longer to go from 25% to 30% support than it does to go from 45% to 50%. So TX could easily flip in as few as 6 or 7 years.

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