Polls

Davis popular but trails Perry by double digits

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C.—
Wendy Davis earned herself a ton
of national attention last week when she successfully filibustered a bill in
the Texas Senate for 11 hours.  In so
doing, she doubled her in-state name identification from 34% to 68% since PPP
last tested it in January.  She is now
the best-liked figure the firm tested statewide, and the third-best-known after
Rick Perry and Ted Cruz.  But her
standing in a hypothetical matchup with Perry has slipped in the last five
months, mainly due to Perry’s own improvement.

39% have
a favorable opinion of Davis and only 29% an unfavorable one.  That is better than Perry’s 45-50
approval-disapproval margin or the 32-26 favorability of the other possible GOP
gubernatorial candidate, Attorney General Greg Abbott.  Voters narrowly approve of her use of the
filibuster, with 45% supporting and 40% opposing it.  They also dislike SB5, with 20% supporting
and 28% opposing it.

But Perry’s
standing with the plurality Republican voters has improved a net 23 points
since the last poll, bringing his overall approvals up a net eight points from
41-54.  Because of this, Davis actually
fared better pre-filibuster at a 47-41 deficit. 
She now trails by more than twice as many points (53-39).

Perry
has simultaneously patched some of his vulnerability to a primary challenge
from the cash-flush Abbott.  In January,
Republican primary voters preferred a generic “someone else” to their incumbent
by a 47-41 margin, and Perry led Abbott by only three points (41-38).  Perry now tops the generic opponent by five
(44-39), an 11-point reversal, and Abbott by 12 (46-34), a jump of nine points.

Abbott
is still a stronger nominee in the general election except against Davis, who
he beats by only eight points (48-40). 
Otherwise, Abbott outpaces Perry against the field by two to seven
points on the margin.

“Wendy
Davis made a strong first impression on Texas voters last week,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the chances that the state
turns blue in 2014 still look pretty slim.”

PPP surveyed 500 Texas voters from June 28th
to July 1st, 2013. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.4%.
This poll was not authorized or paid for by any campaign or political
organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone
interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .45%
Disapprove…………. .50%
Not sure …………….. . 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Abbott?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Julian Castro?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Wendy Davis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Annise Parker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill White?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Rick Perry and Democrat Julian
Castro, who would you vote for?
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 50%
Julian Castro…………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Rick Perry and Democrat Wendy
Davis, who would you vote for?
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 53%
Wendy Davis…………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Rick Perry and Democrat Annise
Parker, who would you vote for?
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 52%
Annise Parker …………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Rick Perry and Democrat Bill
White, who would you vote for?
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 50%
Bill White………………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Greg Abbott and Democrat Julian
Castro, who would you vote for?
Greg Abbott ……………………………………………. 48%
Julian Castro…………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Greg Abbott and Democrat Wendy
Davis, who would you vote for?
Greg Abbott ……………………………………………. 48%
Wendy Davis…………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Greg Abbott and Democrat Annise
Parker, who would you vote for?
Greg Abbott ……………………………………………. 50%
Annise Parker …………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Greg Abbott and Democrat Bill
White, who would you vote for?
Greg Abbott ……………………………………………. 48%
Bill White………………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q15 Do you think Rick Perry should run for reelection
as Governor next year, or not?
He should…………… .30%
He should not……… .60%
Not sure …………….. .10%

Q16 Do you support or oppose Rick Perry’s call for
a second special legislative session?
Support ……………… .43%
Oppose ……………… .44%
Not sure …………….. .13%

Q17 Do you support or oppose Wendy Davis’ use of
the filibuster on Tuesday night?
Support ……………… .45%
Oppose ……………… .40%
Not sure …………….. .15%

Q18 Do you support or oppose Senate Bill 5?
Support ……………… .20%
Oppose ……………… .28%
Not sure …………….. .52%

Q19 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the Texas state
legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q20 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the Texas state
legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q21 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Dewhurst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%

Q22 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q23 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 28%

Q24 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q25 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%

Q26 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 17%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%

Q27 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .67%
Disapprove…………. .26%
Not sure …………….. . 8%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Abbott?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%

Q3 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Greg Abbott and Rick Perry, who would you
vote for?
Greg Abbott ……………………………………………. 34%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q4 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican candidate for Governor next year to
be Rick Perry or someone else?
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 44%
Someone else…………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q5 If the candidates for Lieutenant Governor next
year were David Dewhurst, Dan Patrick, Jerry
Patterson, and Todd Staples, who would you
vote for?
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 37%
Dan Patrick …………………………………………….. 17%
Jerry Patterson ……………………………………….. 7%
Todd Staples…………………………………………… 5%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%

Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 30%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 51%

Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%

Q8 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 34%

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