Raleigh, N.C.- It's yet another sign of how
overwhelming the desire is among Democrats for Hillary Clinton to be their
Presidential candidate in 2016 that she's polling at 52% in Montana despite the
presence of potential home state contender Brian Schweitzer. Schweitzer gets
17% with Joe Biden at 9%, Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren at 3%, and no one
else over 1%.
polling has consistently found that even if there’s a popular home state
candidate it doesn’t matter- a majority of Democrats everywhere want Hillary
Clinton as their candidate in 2016,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public
choice of Republican voters in the state for their candidate is actually Rand
Paul though. He gets 21% to 13% for Bush, 12% for Christie and Ted Cruz, 10%
for Marco Rubio, 9% for Paul Ryan, 6% for Bobby Jindal, and 3% for Susana Martinez.
-It's yet another sign of how overwhelming the desire is among
Democrats for Hillary Clinton to be their Presidential candidate in 2016
that she's polling at 52% in Montana despite the presence of potential
home state contender Brian Schweitzer. Schweitzer gets 17% with Joe
Biden at 9%, Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren at 3%, and no one else
Schweitzer would be more viable than Clinton in a general
election though. He leads Chris Christie 42/41 and Jeb Bush 48/41 in
hypothetical match ups in the state. Clinton meanwhile ties Bush at 45
and trails Christie 45/40.
The top choice of Republican voters in
the state for their candidate is actually Rand Paul though. He gets 21%
to 13% for Bush, 12% for Christie and Ted Cruz, 10% for Marco Rubio, 9%
for Paul Ryan, 6% for Bobby Jindal, 3% for Susana Martinez, and 1% for
-Montana voters still don't support gay marriage,
but they're moving strongly in that direction. In 2011 we found that
voters opposed it by a 14 point margin, with 37% in favor and 51%
against. The margin has shifted 8 points in favor since then and now 42%
of voters support it with only 48% opposed. Voters under 45 in the
state support gay marriage by a wide margin, including 61/30 with those
under 30. On the broader issue of legal rights for same sex couples, 71%
of voters in the state at least support civil unions with just 27%
opposed to any sort of legal recognition.
-Studies show that Montana has one of the top 5 highest levels of gun ownership in the country, but voters in the state nevertheless strongly support expanded background checks 58/35. Independents support expanded background checks by the same 58/35 spread as the overall number.
Over the next week and a half we will do polls in Texas and Iowa- Texas this weekend and Iowa probably early next week.
So- who should we test for Senate and Governor in each of those states? And obviously what else do you think we should ask about in Texas after this big news week? Thanks as always for the good question suggestions!
Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s most recent poll of Montana
voters finds a tight Senate race brewing in the Treasure State, especially if
former governor Brian Schweitzer throws his hat into the ring. Schweitzer is
the most well-known and favorable person in Montana politics, with a 54%
approval rating compared to 40% who have an unfavorable view of the former
governor. Other popular Montanans include former governor Marc Racicot
(43%/37%), State Auditor Monica Lindeen (38%/22%), State Superintendent Denise
Juneau (39%/25%), and Congressman Steve Daines (41%/33%). The two Montanans
with higher unfavorable ratings were also the least recognized: Corey
Stapleton, with a 14%/24% split, and Champ Edmunds, who had just a 4% favorable
rating compared to 22% unfavorable.
head to head matchups, all of the Republican would find victory over any
Democrats besides Schweitzer, with the exceptions of Stapleton and Edmunds who
would lose to all three Democrats. Should Schweitzer end up being the
Democratic candidate, Montanans would be looking at a pretty tight Senate race
in 2014. In a theoretical matchup between Daines and Schweitzer, the former
governor would win with 48% compared to 45% for Daines. If Racicot and
Schweitzer squared off instead, the Republican would beat Schweitzer by just a
single percent, 47% to 46%. In both of these races, Schweitzer would hold a
nice lead with independent voters, 50% to 39% against Daines and 46% to 41%
PPP's newest Montana poll finds that if the top tier candidates for each party get into the Senate race, it will be a toss up.
Three candidates rise to the top in our polling: Brian Schweitzer on the Democratic side and Marc Racicot and Steve Daines on the Republican side. And any match up involving those three candidates would be a toss up. Schweitzer leads Daines 48/45, but trails Racicot by a single point at 47/46. Schweitzer overcomes the GOP lean of the state by leading both of them (Daines 50/39 and Racicot 46/41) with independents. He also has the highest favorability rating of any of the potential candidates at 54/40, followed by Racicot at 43/37, and Daines' approval of 41/33.
Schweitzer would blow both of the Republicans we tested other than Daines and Racicot out of the water. He would have a 52/37 lead over Champ Edmunds and a 52/38 one over Corey Stapleton. Likewise Daines and Racicot would both have substantial leads over the potential Democrats we tested besides Schweitzer- Daines leads Denise Juneau 48/38 and Monica Lindeen 49/37 in hypothetical contests, while Racicot leads Juneau 52/37 and Lindeen 52/35 in head to heads.
PPP is best known for putting out highly accurate polling on key political races across the country, but we also do affordable private research for candidates and organizations. Why pay tens of thousands of dollars for a survey when one of the most reliable companies in the nation can do it for less?"