Corbett in dire shape for reelection

Tom Corbett- already among the country's most unpopular Governors- has seen his position worsen considerably over the last two months. Only 33% of voters now approve of his job performance, compared to 58% who disapprove. His net approval rating of -25 is  11 points worse than it was in early January at -14 (38/52). The only 2 Governors in the country with a disapproval rating higher than Corbett's are Pat Quinn of Illinois and Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island.

In January we tested Corbett against Allyson Schwartz, Joe Sestak, Rob McCord, John Hanger, and Tom Wolf and he led all five of them. Now we find him trailing all five of them, in some cases by double digits. Corbett is down by 11 points each to Schwartz, Sestak, and McCord all by margins of 45/34. Tom Wolf leads by 9 points at 42/33 and John Hanger's up by 7 at 41/34.

What's particularly noteworthy about the substantial leads all of the Democrats have is that they come despite them all being relatively unknown. Sestak has only 52% name recognition and that makes him the famous one of the bunch- Schwartz is at 38%, Hanger at 31%, McCord at 30%, and Wolf at 22%. Most of the undecideds in the match ups are Democrats so it's possible that as the eventual candidate becomes better known they will build up an even bigger lead.

Corbett may have trouble even becoming the Republican candidate again. Only 37% of GOP voters say they'd like him to be their nominee in 2014, compared to 49% who say they would prefer someone else. Corbett leads Bruce Castor by 20 points in a hypothetical match, 43/23, but that's been cut in half from what was a 40 point edge in January at 51/11. If 2012 Senate candidate Tom Smith were to challenge Corbett, the Governor would hold only a 37/33 lead.

The issues that have been most prominent in the news lately are not serving Corbett well. Only 25% of voters approve of how he's handled the Penn State situation, to 58% who disapprove. And just 17% support his plan for privatizing the state lottery, compared to 67% who oppose it. In both cases Corbett's leadership is being repudiated even by members of his own party- he has just 35/45 support for his handling of Penn State and 25/55 support for lottery privatization from Republicans.

Obviously we're still a long way off from 2014, but for now Corbett looks like the most endangered Governor in the country up for reelection next year.

Full results here

Comments

[sal mazzocchi]

How often it is said that our elected officials only do what is necessary to get re-elected, rather than do what is good for the people. Governor Corbett jumped in with both feet and has made great strides fixing the 8-year Rendell administration mess, only to be miffed by those who refuse to see the progress and snub the successes. Ohh, the great lengths folks will go to cut off their noses to spite their face!

[pbrower2a]

If you look at the famous Nate Silver on approval ratings for incumbent Senators and Governors you find that the threshold for a 50% chance of winning re-election is a positive approval rating of 44% as the campaign season begins. Challengers can carp at the incumbent all that they want, but in the election itself the incumbent usually shows why he was elected.

Usually. The average gain is about 6% because the incumbent usually has a campaign apparatus, has fund raising already in operation, and allies capable of running GOTV drives in place -- and because the incumbent has usually proved some competence.

Tom Corbett is in the area in which an incumbent has shown incompetence, corruption, or irrelevance. Silver had nobody as unpopular as Corbett is now, probably because most incumbents that unpopular either choose not to run, get impeached or recalled, resign as a scandal breaks, or lose a primary challenge. Breaking scandals late in a campaign season? Those (President Richard Nixon the extreme counter-example, and then only after he was re-elected) happen among politicians who are already unpopular -- and their secretiveness has already made them unattractive.

Nobody as unpopular as Corbett appeared in the study.

[LiberalAgenda21]

Do you tack left or right when your facing pressure from both sides? He has a long time to figure it out so I won't declare Allyson Schwartz the winner yet.

This is kind of unrelated but how can someone be a bad Governor of Rhode Island.

[smintheus]

This poll actually is worse for Corbett than described. The poll respondents under-represent Democrats and over-represent Republicans and Republican-leaning demographics. There is a large gender gap, with women voters heavily against Corbett and his policies. Also, most of the potential Dem candidates are so little known that they have extremely low approval ratings...yet they're all clobbering Corbett by much the same margins. It's quite clear that only a small minority of voters are willing to see Corbett re-elected.

No, Sal, that's not because Corbett isn't getting credit he deserves. He hasn't solved any problems, unless you think the government pursuing policies that the public agrees with is a problem.