« | Main | Corbett a massive underdog for a second term »

March 12, 2013

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

sal mazzocchi

How often it is said that our elected officials only do what is necessary to get re-elected, rather than do what is good for the people. Governor Corbett jumped in with both feet and has made great strides fixing the 8-year Rendell administration mess, only to be miffed by those who refuse to see the progress and snub the successes. Ohh, the great lengths folks will go to cut off their noses to spite their face!

pbrower2a

If you look at the famous Nate Silver on approval ratings for incumbent Senators and Governors you find that the threshold for a 50% chance of winning re-election is a positive approval rating of 44% as the campaign season begins. Challengers can carp at the incumbent all that they want, but in the election itself the incumbent usually shows why he was elected.

Usually. The average gain is about 6% because the incumbent usually has a campaign apparatus, has fund raising already in operation, and allies capable of running GOTV drives in place -- and because the incumbent has usually proved some competence.

Tom Corbett is in the area in which an incumbent has shown incompetence, corruption, or irrelevance. Silver had nobody as unpopular as Corbett is now, probably because most incumbents that unpopular either choose not to run, get impeached or recalled, resign as a scandal breaks, or lose a primary challenge. Breaking scandals late in a campaign season? Those (President Richard Nixon the extreme counter-example, and then only after he was re-elected) happen among politicians who are already unpopular -- and their secretiveness has already made them unattractive.

Nobody as unpopular as Corbett appeared in the study.

LiberalAgenda21

Do you tack left or right when your facing pressure from both sides? He has a long time to figure it out so I won't declare Allyson Schwartz the winner yet.

This is kind of unrelated but how can someone be a bad Governor of Rhode Island.

smintheus

This poll actually is worse for Corbett than described. The poll respondents under-represent Democrats and over-represent Republicans and Republican-leaning demographics. There is a large gender gap, with women voters heavily against Corbett and his policies. Also, most of the potential Dem candidates are so little known that they have extremely low approval ratings...yet they're all clobbering Corbett by much the same margins. It's quite clear that only a small minority of voters are willing to see Corbett re-elected.

No, Sal, that's not because Corbett isn't getting credit he deserves. He hasn't solved any problems, unless you think the government pursuing policies that the public agrees with is a problem.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been saved. Comments are moderated and will not appear until approved by the author. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear until the author has approved them.

PPP POLLS BY YEAR: 2006-2014

We came to PPP after a public poll in the San Jose Mayoral race showed our opponent ahead by 8 points. They found our candidate (Sam Liccardo) ahead by 3 points and that allowed us to be able to push back with the press against the perception that our opponent was now a strong favorite in the race. Sam ended up winning by 2 points and is now the next Mayor of San Jose. PPP worked very fast and had a very accurate read on the electorate when we needed them
–Eric Jaye, Storefront Political Media.

For more information on hiring PPP for your polling needs click here

Among the Best Pollsters, Year after Year.

2014 :
Rated Most Accurate Pollster in Governor’s Races Nationally

2012 :
Correctly predicted the winner of every state in the Presidential race, and the winner of every major Senate race

2010 :
First pollster to predict Scott Brown’s upset win over Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate race, only pollster to predict Christine O’Donnell’s upset victory over Mike Castle in the Delaware Republican Senate primary.

2008 :
Ranked by the Wall Street Journal as the 2nd most accurate swing state pollster in the Presidential election.


WSJ Graphic

CONTACT US

Public Policy Polling
2912 Highwoods Blvd., Suite 201
Raleigh, NC 27604
Phone: 888.621.6988

Questions or Comments?
Email Us

RECENT POSTS

Categories

HIRE PPP

Dean Debnam Dean Debnam
Public Policy Polling CEO

PPP is best known for putting out highly accurate polling on key political races across the country, but we also do affordable private research for candidates and organizations.  Why pay tens of thousands of dollars for a survey when one of the most reliable companies in the nation can do it for less?"

Learn more about working
with PPP for your next project >

FOLLOW US

Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
RSS Feed RSS Reader
Email Sign up: New Polling Data email