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February 14, 2013

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Sam

Two interesting data points:

- 11% of African-American respondents would vote for David Duke over Edwin Edwards. Someone should write a book about this.

- The shift in support for/against gay marriage can be measured against the 2004 LA marriage amendment, which also banned all recognition of same-sex relationships and passed with 78% of the vote. We must allocate most, but not all of the 12% undecideds to the "no" column. Using recent trends from PPP polling on this issue, I allocate only 2.5% of the undecideds to the yes column; all the rest go to the no side. Given this, we get an adjusted pro-SSM response of 31.5%, which represents a 9.5% shift in favor of SSM from 2004.

You also notice a much higher undecided response from African-Americans. This may reflect the genuine confusion and state of flux in Af-Am opinion following Obama's change in position on this issue. The impact of this appeared so visibly in MD, and in red states like GA, it apparently has thrown some previous SSM opponents into the undecided column.

Cedric

One thing to note about Mitch Landrieu's competitiveness in the 2015 LA Governor's race is that he won two races as the state's Lt. Gov in 2003 and 2007. So he has been approved by large margins by Louisiana voters and so it shouldn't perhaps be a surprise he could win the governor's race in 2015.

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