Public Policy Polling

Wisconsin poll: Hillary Clinton beats Paul Ryan, Scott Walker Politico
Poll finds Democrats, Republicans can’t even agree about food WCBS 2
New poll: Wisconsin voters favor gun curbs, split on same-sex marriage Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Polls indicate displeasure with governor's tax plan KDNS 94.1 FM

Clinton would beat Walker, Ryan in Wisconsin in 2016

Raleigh, N.C. – Wisconsin voters would pick Hillary Clinton over their state’s own Scott Walker or Paul Ryan for president in 2016, according to PPP’s latest Wisconsin poll.

Clinton leads Ryan 51% to 43%, Walker 54% to 41% and Marco Rubio 52% to 38%. She has a formidable +19 favorability rating, with 56% of voters holding a favorable opinion to 37% unfavorable. Clinton’s strong numbers stem from her popularity with moderates (71/20) and independent voters (58/34). Ryan’s favorability is evenly split at 46%.

In the GOP primary, Ryan leads with 35% support without Walker included, and Walker leads with 33% support without Ryan in the mix. In both cases Rubio is a close second (27% against Walker, 22% against Ryan) and Chris Christie is a distant third at 10%.

Wisconsin Miscellany

PPP's new Wisconsin poll finds that Hillary Clinton would be dominant in the state, both in primary and general elections. Clinton leads home state Republicans Paul Ryan 51-43 and Scott Walker 54-41 in hypothetical match ups in the state. Her 56/37 favorability rating makes her far more popular than either of them. She leads Ryan by 13 and Walker by 20 points with independents. Clinton would also lead Marco Rubio 52/38 in the state.

As much as Wisconsin Democrats love Russ Feingold, they'd still much rather have Clinton as their 2016 Presidential candidate. 50% say she would be their choice to 25% for Feingold, 11% for Joe Biden, 3% for Andrew Cuomo, and 2% for Elizabeth Warren.

On the Republican side both Ryan and Walker would be the favorites for President in the state if they ran, but not by particularly overwhelming margins given their home state status. Ryan polls at 35% to 22% for Marco Rubio and 10% for Chris Christie with no one else in double digits. Walker polls at 33% to 27% for Rubio and 10% for Christie. It's a sign of Rubio's strength that he polls so close to those guys even on their own turf.

Other findings in Wisconsin:

Michigan Question Suggestions

We're just going to do one poll this weekend and Michigan won the vote. Obviously the main focus will be the Gubernatorial race- what Democrats would you like to see us test against Rick Snyder? We'll also take a look at the Senate race- what Republicans should we test against Carl Levin? And any other question suggestions for the state would be much appreciated as well...thanks as always for the good ideas!

Pat Roberts anonymous to many Kansas voters

Raleigh, N.C. – Pat Roberts is one of the most anonymous Senators in the country. 31% of voters approve of him, 28% disapprove, and 41% don't have an opinion either way. The only Senator in the county we've found with a higher percentage of voters having no opinion about him is first termer Mark Kirk of Illinois.

Nevertheless Roberts shouldn't be in too much trouble next year, at least in a general election. He leads every Democrat we tested against him by double digits- it's 11 points over Kathleen Sebelius at 51/40, 15 points over Mark Parkinson at 49/34, and 16 over Carl Brewer at 50/34.

Roberts' low profile could give him more trouble in a primary. Just 42% of Republicans say they would vote to re-nominate him, while 34% say they would prefer someone 'more conservative.' Those are pretty uninspiring numbers if a more fiery candidate wanted to challenge him from the right. Roberts has bigger leads over specific GOP alternatives we tested against him though- 21 points over Todd Tiahrt at 47/26, 31 over Tim Huelskamp at 53/22, and 36 over Kris Kobach at 55/19.

Kansas Miscellany

-Pat Roberts is one of the most anonymous Senators in the country. 31% of voters approve of him, 28% disapprove, and 41% don't have an opinion either way. The only Senator in the county we've found with a higher percentage of voters having no opinion about him is first termer Mark Kirk of Illinois.

Nevertheless Roberts shouldn't be in too much trouble next year, at least in a general election. He leads every Democrat we tested against him by double digits- it's 11 points over Kathleen Sebelius at 51/40, 15 points over Mark Parkinson at 49/34, and 16 over Carl Brewer at 50/34.

Roberts' low profile could give him more trouble in a primary. Just 42% of Republicans say they would vote to re-nominate him, while 34% say they would prefer someone 'more conservative.' Those are pretty uninspiring numbers if a more fiery candidate wanted to challenge him from the right. Roberts has bigger leads over specific GOP alternatives we tested against him though- 21 points over Todd Tiahrt at 47/26, 31 over Tim Huelskamp at 53/22, and 36 over Kris Kobach at 55/19.

Democrats might have a better chance with someone like Huelskamp as the GOP nominee- he leads the Brewer/Sebelius/Parkinson trio by only 4-6 points. But obviously the Republican lean of the state will make it hard for Democrats regardless of the GOP candidate.

Jerry Moran is Kansas' more popular Senator with a 38% approval rating and 27% disapproving, although that makes him one of the less well known Senators in the country as well.

-By far and away the most well liked political figure in Kansas is former Senator Bob Dole, who has a 69/14 favorability rating. Dole is the rare political figure who has genuine bipartisan popularity- his favorability is 78/10 with Republicans, 62/18 with Democrats, and 59/17 with independents.

-Going back even further in history, John Brown has a 30/25 favorability rating with Kansans. He's at 37/26 with Democrats, 31/23 with independents, and 26/25 with Republicans.

-72% of voters in the state have no opinion either way about the book 'What's the Matter with Kansas?' 18% have a positive view of it to 10% with a negative one. Unsurprisingly Democrats liked it (35/8), while Republicans did not (8/11).

-Kansas reflects what we find in most red states when it comes to legal rights for gay couples: voters in the state oppose same sex marriage but support at least civil union rights. Just 39% think same sex marriage should be legal to 51% who think it should continue to be illegal. But 63% support civil unions with just 34% believing there should be no legal rights at all for gay couples. As we find most everywhere young voters do support same sex marriage.

More on Americans’ attitudes toward food

Raleigh, N.C. – Mexican food (69-22), seafood (74-19), Italian food (85-10), American food (91-6), and Chinese food (71-21) all get favorable marks from voters. Republicans (73-21) like Mexican food more than Democrats (69-21), while Democrats (74-19) like Chinese food more than Republicans (69-26)

Subway (43%) beats out Panera (22%) and Quizno’s (6%) for favorite sandwich chain. Women (30%) have a much stronger preference for Panera than men (12%)

31% choose Taco Bell as favorite Mexican chain, 19% go for Chipotle. More men (35%) than women (28%) like Taco Bell. 34% of white people choose Taco Bell as their favorite Mexican chain while Hispanics prefer Chipotle over Taco Bell by a 33-23 margin. In fact more Hispanics list Taco Bell as their least favorite Mexican chain (33%) than their favorite.

More on the food issues that divide America

Day 2 of our food poll results show the following:

- Mexican food (69-22), seafood (74-19), Italian food (85-10), American food (91-6), and Chinese food (71-21) all get favorable marks from voters

- Republicans (73-21) like Mexican food more than Democrats (69-21), while Democrats (74-19) like Chinese food more than Republicans (69-26)

- Subway (43%) beats out Panera (22%) and Quizno’s (6%) for favorite sandwich chain. Women (30%) have a much stronger preference for Panera than men (12%)

- 31% choose Taco Bell as favorite Mexican chain, 19% go for Chipotle. More men (35%) than women (28%) like Taco Bell. 34% of white people choose Taco Bell as their favorite Mexican chain while Hispanics prefer Chipotle over Taco Bell by a 33-23 margin. In fact more Hispanics list Taco Bell as their least favorite Mexican chain (33%) than their favorite

- Pepperoni is by far America’s most favorite pizza topping at 27%, 14% say mushroom, 12% sausage, 10% bacon. - 65% of men choose some form of meat as their favorite pizza topping to just 25% who prefer a vegetable. Women were more vegetable-friendly, with 34% choosing a vegetable and 48% a meat

- Among voters with a preference, 27% choose wine as favorite alcoholic beverage, 22% say beer and 18% take liquor. 36% of women prefer wine over liquor (16%) or beer (12%), but men like beer best (36%) with 19% each for wine and liquor.

- Budweiser (15%) is voters’ favorite beer among the largest brands with 9% choosing Corona, 8% Miller, 8% Sam Adams, 7% Coors, 7% Heineken, 3% Busch, 2% Pabst Blue Ribbon and 1% Natural Light. Fully 49% of women say they don’t have a favorite brand of beer, while just 25% of men don’t have one.

- Good news for craft brews and microbreweries – more voters (24%) prefer microbrews or regional breweries to larger national brands of beer (21%). There’s a partisan divide on this issue – Democrats prefer microbrews over national beers by a 29-15 margin while Republicans take national brews over micros 27-19.

- Most voters say they would not be willing to eat sushi (43-57). Many more Democrats (52-48) would than Republicans (36-64). There’s also a huge age divide on sushi palatability – younger voters say they’d eat sushi by a 59%-41% margin, and that number drops the older people get – those age 30-45 are split 48%-52% on eating sushi, among those age 46-65 just 40% say they’d eat sushi while 60% say they would not, and among those over age 65 just 29% say they’d eat sushi while 71% say no thanks.

Full results here

Republican state senator to launch bid against Baucus this week The Hill
Poll: Roberts, though unknown, well-poised for reelectionThe Hill
Republicans and Democrats can't even agree about food Esquire
Chart: Generational attitudes on sushi and gay marriage correlate almost perfectly Mother Jones
Who will take on Deal in 2014? Gainesville (GA) Times
Bill would revive payday loans for N.C. Southern Pines (NC) Pilot
Republicans don't like vegans, do like diet soda, poll finds Philadelphia Magazine
Poll: Feingold running even with Walker for governor WTAQ 97.5 FM
Feingold for governor? Wisconsin Radio Network

Brownback unpopular heading into 2014 re-election campaign

Raleigh, N.C. – Republican Gov. Sam Brownback is unpopular and potentially vulnerable heading into his 2014 re-election effort with small to moderate leads over six potential Democratic challengers, according to PPP’s first ever public Kansas poll.

Brownback has a negative -15 job approval rating, with 37% of Kansas voters approving and 52% disapproving of his performance as governor. 72% of moderates disapprove of his performance as well as 30% of Republicans and 66% of independents.

Brownback’s plan to phase out the state’s income tax is almost as unpopular as he is, with 48% of voters opposed and 37% supportive. 65% of moderates and 56% of independents oppose the plan. Even 34% of somewhat conservative voters and 28% of Republicans are opposed to the proposal to overhaul the income tax.