Polls

Floridians choose Charlie Crist over Rick Scott

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. – 
PPP’s first Florida poll of 2013 finds Rick Scott’s approval numbers on the decline and Democrats warming up to Charlie Crist, setting the stage for Florida to possibly elect its first Democratic Governor in 20 years next fall.

Scott’s approval rating is just 33%, with 57% of voters disapproving of him. Scott’s numbers had gradually improved over the course of 2012, but these numbers represent a regression from early November when he was at a 37/48 spread. Scott meets with near universal disapproval from Democrats (21/71) and independents (32/64) and is even on pretty shaky ground with Republicans (49/38).

Crist meanwhile is being embraced by Democrats. His favorability rating with them is 70/16. That’s a big improvement from early September when it was just 44/33. The party’s unified around him since his official switch last month. 52% of Democratic primary voters say they’d like for Crist to be their candidate for Governor next year, compared to 18% for Alex Sink, 13% for Pam Iorio, 4% for Buddy Dyer, and 1% for Nan Rich.

Crist would start out as the favorite in a showdown with Scott. He leads 53-39, most notably taking a whooping 29% of the Republican vote. He still has some residual appeal to Republican voters. Crist isn’t the only Democrat who could give Scott trouble for reelection though.

Sink (47/40), Iorio (43/39), and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (44/42) all lead Scott in hypothetical head to head match ups as well. The only Democrats Scott outdistances are Rich and Dyer, both by narrow 41/37 margins. 42% is the highest level of support Scott can summon against anyone we tested against him.

There’s some chance Democrats might not even get to run against Scott in the general election though. In general only 50% of Republican primary voters want Scott to be their candidate again next year, compared to 40% who would prefer someone else. He still hasn’t really won over the base voters who didn’t support him in the 2010 primary election, and that would leave him vulnerable to a potential primary change. We actually find him trailing in a head to head contest with Allen West, 38/37. And although he has a big lead he’s under 50% in a head to head with Pam Bondi as well at 49/25.

Scott squeaked by in one of the best Republican years on record in 2010, but at least at this early stage it looks like he would have a hard time doing it again in 2014.

“Rick Scott continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the
country and most Democrats are embracing Charlie Crist now that he’s officially
joined the party,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s
early but Crist looks like the favorite if he tries to get his old office back
next year.”

PPP surveyed 501 Florida voters, including an oversample of 401 usual
Democratic primary voters and 436 Republican primary voters, from January 11 to
13th.  The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-4.4%,
+/-4.9% for the Democratic portion, and +/-4.7% for the Republican portion. This
poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Scott’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .33%
Disapprove…………. .57%
Not sure …………….. . 9%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Crist?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Buddy Dyer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pam Iorio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Nan Rich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alex Sink?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Debbie Wasserman Schultz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%

Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Charlie
Crist, who would you vote for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 39%
Charlie Crist ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Buddy
Dyer, who would you vote for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 41%
Buddy Dyer …………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Pam
Iorio, who would you vote for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 39%
Pam Iorio ……………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Nan
Rich, who would you vote for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 41%
Nan Rich………………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Alex Sink,
who would you vote for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 40%
Alex Sink………………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Debbie
Wasserman Schultz, who would you vote for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 42%
Debbie Wasserman Schultz………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%

Q17 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 11%
White …………………………………………………….. 68%
African-American …………………………………….. 15%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%

Democratic Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Crist?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 73%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Buddy Dyer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pam Iorio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Nan Rich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alex Sink?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Debbie Wasserman Schultz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%

Q7 Given the choices of Charlie Crist, Buddy Dyer,
Pam Iorio, Nan Rich, and Alex Sink, who would
you most like to be the Democratic candidate
for Governor next year?
Charlie Crist ……………………………………………. 52%
Buddy Dyer …………………………………………….. 4%
Pam Iorio ……………………………………………….. 13%
Nan Rich………………………………………………… 1%
Alex Sink………………………………………………… 18%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 12%

Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 28%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 11%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 3%

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 65%
Man……………………………………………………….. 35%

Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 8%
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African-American …………………………………….. 17%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q11 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Scott’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .56%
Disapprove…………. .32%
Not sure …………….. .12%

Q2 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican candidate for Governor next year to
be Rick Scott or someone else?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 50%
Someone else…………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q3 If the Republican candidates for Governor next
year were Rick Scott and Allen West, who
would you vote for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 37%
Allen West………………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q4 If the Republican candidates for Governor next
year were Rick Scott and Pam Bondi, who
would you vote for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 49%
Pam Bondi ……………………………………………… 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q5 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..15%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………43%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 9%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 35%

Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Q8 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%

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