Clinton could win Texas in 2016

Raleigh, N.C. – Predictions about Texas eventually becoming a presidential battleground state could get fast-tracked if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee in 2016, according to PPP’s latest poll.

The results are within the margin of error, but Clinton leads Marco Rubio 46% to 45%, Chris Christie 45% to 43% and Rick Perry 50% to 42%. She has a +7 favorability rating (50/43) with Texas voters and strong support among moderate voters—72% view her favorably, and she crushes her potential GOP opponents among this voting group.

“If Clinton is the 2016 nominee, she could conceivably expand the electoral map for Democrats in deep-red Texas,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

Rubio leads the pack in a potential 2016 GOP presidential primary with 21% support, followed by 14% for Mike Huckabee, 13% for Rand Paul, 11% for Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan, 9% for Christie, 4% for Bobby Jindal and Perry and 2% for Susana Martinez. 10% support someone else or are undecided. 70% don’t want Perry to run again for president.

Ted Cruz has a +6 job approval rating (36/30), with 34% not sure. 41% of voters have a favorable view of George P. Bush to 33% unfavorable and 26% unsure.

51% of voters support continuing to allow Texas’ popular vote winner to receive all of its electoral votes to 28% who support the congressional district proposal. 20% support seceding from the United States because of President Obama’s reelection to 67% opposed and 12% not sure. Same-sex marriage is opposed 55% to 35%, but 61% support some form of legal recognition—33% support marriage equality and 28% support civil unions.

42% of Texas voters consider themselves to be Dallas Cowboys fans while 50% do not. 52% of Cowboys fans think the team would be better off without team owner Jerry Jones, while 29% think it would be about the same and 14% think it would be worse off.

PPP surveyed 500 Texas voters as well as 400 usual Republican primary voters from January 24^th to 27^th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-4.4% overall and +/-4.9% for the GOP portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ted
Cruz’s job performance?
Approve ................. .36%
Disapprove............. .30%
Not sure ................. .34%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George P. Bush?
Favorable........................................................ 41%
Unfavorable .................................................... 33%
Not sure .......................................................... 26%

Q3 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Texas, or not?
It should .......................................................... 35%
It should not .................................................... 55%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

Q4 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple's relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ..............................................................33%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry .......................................28%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple's relationship .......................................36%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable........................................................ 50%
Unfavorable .................................................... 43%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

Q6 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Chris Christie .................................................. 43%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Q7 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q8 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q9 Do you think that all of Texas’ electoral votes
should go to the presidential candidate who
wins in the state, or do you think one electoral
vote should be given to the winner of each
congressional district?
All of Texas’ electoral votes should go to the
presidential candidate who wins the state.......51%
One vote should be given to the winner of
each congressional district..............................28%
Not sure .......................................................... 21%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lance Armstrong?
Favorable........................................................ 16%
Unfavorable .................................................... 59%
Not sure .......................................................... 25%

Q11 Would you support or oppose Texas seceding
from the union because of Barack Obama’s reelection?
Support ........................................................... 20%
Oppose ........................................................... 67%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jerry Jones?
Favorable........................................................ 13%
Unfavorable .................................................... 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 37%

Q13 Do you consider yourself to be a Dallas
Cowboys fan, or not?
Consider yourself a Cowboys fan ................... 42%
Do not ............................................................. 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

Q14 (Asked only of Cowboys fans:) Do you think
the Cowboys would be better off, worse off, or
about the same with a different owner than
Jerry Jones?
Better off ......................................................... 52%
Worse off ........................................................ 14%
About the same............................................... 29%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 8%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 15%
Moderate......................................................... 30%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 22%
Very conservative ........................................... 25%

Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 56%
Man................................................................. 44%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 32%
Republican...................................................... 43%
Independent/Other.......................................... 25%

Q18 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic.......................................................... 19%
White .............................................................. 62%
African-American ............................................ 13%
Other............................................................... 7%

Q19 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45........................................................... 30%
46 to 65........................................................... 48%
Older than 65.................................................. 22%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Susana
Martinez, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio,
and Paul Ryan, who would you most like to see
as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush......................................................... 11%
Chris Christie .................................................. 9%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 14%
Bobby Jindal ................................................... 4%
Susana Martinez............................................. 2%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 13%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 4%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 21%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 11%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 10%

Q2 Do you think Rick Perry should run for
President in 2016, or not?
He should........................................................ 19%
He should not.................................................. 70%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q3 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 2%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 5%
Moderate......................................................... 15%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 34%
Very conservative ........................................... 42%

Q4 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 53%
Man................................................................. 47%

Q5 If you are 18 to 45years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45........................................................... 33%
46 to 65........................................................... 41%
Older than 65.................................................. 26%

Comments

[Tothian]

Yikes. That's admittedly a very scary thought. A Democrat winning Texas.

[Greg Diamond]

"Scary?" I believe that the term that you use for this in Texas is something like "YEEE-HAW!"

[Youglouglou]

If a trend like this exists in Texas, I guess it will be a long, long, long time for the GOP to win the White House. It's obvious you can't even see how the Republicans could win Ohio or Florida with Texas being a battleground state. The truth is, Republicans (or at least the TP) can't even see that America's changing. The scandalous gerrymandering in the House of Representatives postponed the disaster, plain and simple. The unique effect will be (and in fact is, as it seems): blinding the GOP establishment, since they still believe having a significant popular support. Which is actually fading. They're driving full speed into a brick wall.

[Robert Monrocsol]

You guys in Texas are nuts.