Public Policy Polling

Clinton could win Texas in 2016

Raleigh, N.C. – Predictions about Texas eventually becoming a presidential battleground state could get fast-tracked if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee in 2016, according to PPP’s latest poll.

The results are within the margin of error, but Clinton leads Marco Rubio 46% to 45%, Chris Christie 45% to 43% and Rick Perry 50% to 42%. She has a +7 favorability rating (50/43) with Texas voters and strong support among moderate voters—72% view her favorably, and she crushes her potential GOP opponents among this voting group.

“If Clinton is the 2016 nominee, she could conceivably expand the electoral map for Democrats in deep-red Texas,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

Clinton could win Texas

PPP's newest Texas poll finds that, at least for now, Hillary Clinton could win the state in 2016. This follows on the heels of a survey last month where we found she would have a decent chance of winning Kentucky if she makes another White House bid.

50% of Texas voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton to 43% with a negative one. She's universally well liked by Democrats (91/5) and a majority of independents view her positively as well (52/41). She holds narrow leads in hypothetical match ups with Marco Rubio (46/45) and Chris Christie (45/43) and a wider one in a contest against Rick Perry (50/42).

Speaking of Perry, Republicans in Texas have no interest in seeing him run for President again in 2016. Only 19% think he should make a bid to 70% who think he should not, and he ties for 7th in a 9 candidate field that we tested. Leading the way is Marco Rubio at 21%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 14%, Rand Paul at 13%, Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan at 11%, Chris Christie at 9%, Perry and Bobby Jindal at 4%, and Susana Martinez at 2%.

Other notes from Texas:

-Texas mirrors many southern states in that it remains opposed to gay marriage, but does support same sex couples having legal rights in the form of civil unions. Only 35% of voters in the state support gay marriage to 55% opposed. But 61% support either gay marriage or civil unions, with just 36% against any sort of legal recognition for same sex couples.

-Our first look at newly elected Senator Ted Cruz's approval rating finds 36% of voters giving him good marks to 30% who disapprove. Not surprisingly 34% have no opinion about Cruz one way or the other after only one month of service. Cruz already has the highest net approval rating of major politicians in the state, besting Perry, John Cornyn, and Barack Obama.

Crazy E-Mail of the Day

From: William Rogers [mailto:william5116@att.net]

Sent: Thursday, January 31, 2013 1:38 PM

To: PPP Information

Subject: Recent Texas poll

I place no creditability in your Texas Gun poll. I regularly monitor all the news services in Texas and not once, anywhere, did I come across this poll. Your website publishes these poll results but provides no avenue for citizens to participate or even register to take these polls online. I have repeatedly searched your website to participate in these polls but I only find your, supposed, public poll results and no avenue for me and others to express our opinion. I have expressed my opinion of your service to my representatives and our governor as bogus. Without recourse to verify your results in any manner online you have painted your own service as politically biased and therefore not truly representative of public opinion.

Gay marriage popular but Chafee not

Raleigh, N.C. – Lincoln Chafee's prospects for a second term as Governor of Rhode Island are looking pretty dim. Only 33% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing to 59% who disapprove. That ties him for the second most unpopular Governor in the country in our polling- the only person with worse numbers is Pat Quinn of Illinois.

Chafee does poorly in numerous scenarios we tested for next year's Gubernatorial race:

-In four different scenarios testing four candidates- either Gina Raimondo or Angel Taveras on the Democratic side, either Brendan Doherty or Allan Fung on the Republican side, Chafee running as an independent, and Moderate Party candidate Ken Block- Chafee finishes third in every single one, running behind both the Democratic and Republican candidates.

Chafee unpopular; Rhode Island voters support gay marriage

Lincoln Chafee's prospects for a second term as Governor of Rhode Island are looking pretty dim. Only 33% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing to 59% who disapprove. That ties him for the second most unpopular Governor in the country in our polling- the only person with worse numbers is Pat Quinn of Illinois.

Chafee does poorly in numerous scenarios we tested for next year's Gubernatorial race:

-In four different scenarios testing four candidates- either Gina Raimondo or Angel Taveras on the Democratic side, either Brendan Doherty or Allan Fung on the Republican side, Chafee running as an independent, and Moderate Party candidate Ken Block- Chafee finishes third in every single one, running behind both the Democratic and Republican candidates.

-In two scenarios testing Chafee as the Democratic candidate he finishes second, running 4 points behind the Republican candidates we tested, Brendan Doherty and Allan Fung.

-It would be difficult for Chafee to become the Democratic candidate anyway though. 35% of Democratic primary voters want Gina Raimondo to be their candidate next year to just 22% for Chafee, 19% for Angel Taveras, and 11% for Ernie Almonte.

Overall 57% of voters don't want Chafee to seek reelection next year. 20% want him to run as an independent and 18% think he should run for election again as a Democrat.

The early front runner in next year's race is Raimondo. In addition to leading the Democratic primary field, she also leads every general election scenario we tested. She leads Brendan Doherty by 4 points and Allan Fung by 12 points in four way contests with Chafee in the picture as an independent. When you take Chafee out of the picture Raimondo leads Doherty by 12 points and Fung by 19 points in three way contests. 57% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Raimondo, and her popularity holds true across party lines. Majorities of independents (63/19), Democrats (53/23), and Republicans (52/23) all have a positive opinion of her.

Poll shows Texans narrowly favor assault weapons ban Houston Chronicle
Poll: Hillary Clinton could win Texas The Hill
PPP: Hillary could carry Texas in 2016 Talking Points Memo
Poll: Raimondo is favorite for gov; Chafee does best as a Dem WPRI 12

Alaska, Iowa, National Poll Question Suggestions

Alaska and Iowa won our vote on where to poll this weekend, and we're going to do our monthly national poll as well.

In Alaska we'd love suggestions on who to poll against Mark Begich for the Senate, and who we should test in potential Gubernatorial match ups.

In Iowa we'd like suggestions on who to poll for the Senate, and who to poll on the Democratic side against Terry Branstad.

The main focus of our national poll this month will be our annual TV news trust poll. You can see last year's here. Any new questions we should be putting into that mix?

And of course we'd appreciate any other question suggestions you have for these three polls beyond the things above. Thanks as always!

Brown-Markey race a potential toss-up UPI
Governor’s former aide to fill Kerry’s Senate seat Washington Times
Texans like assault weapon ban; Obama disapproval still high Dallas Morning News
Perry: Abbott won't challenge me in 2014 primary Houston Chronicle
Poll: Scott Brown would run competitive Senate race against Ed Markey Huffington Post
Scott seeks boost from education Sarasota Herald-Tribune
Poll: 67 percent of Texas Republicans want to impeach Obama Beaumont (TX) Enterprise
Perry in policy, not politics mode KXAS 5
Poll finds Texas support for ban on assault weapons KUT 90.5 FM

Markey puts Brown on the ropes

Raleigh, N.C. – A Scott Brown/Ed Markey race to replace John Kerry in Massachusetts would start out as a toss up, PPP's newest poll of the state finds. Markey is a clear favorite over Stephen Lynch in a potential primary contest, and Brown would have an easier path to the Governor's office than a return to the Senate.

Brown starts out leading Markey by just 3 points in a head to head match up, 48/45. 69% of the voters currently undecided voted for Elizabeth Warren in November, while only 17% of them voted for Brown. If those folks ended up voting for the same party that they did in November, Markey would lead Brown by a point.

The primary for the special election looks like it will be a blowout. Markey starts out with a 52/19 lead over Lynch. Lynch actually has a net negative favorability rating with Democratic voters- only 27% see him positively to 28% with a negative opinion. Markey, on the other hand, is quite popular with the party base- 58% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of him to only 13% with an unfavorable one.

Brown/Markey would start out as toss up

A Scott Brown/Ed Markey race to replace John Kerry in Massachusetts would start out as a toss up, PPP's newest poll of the state finds. Markey is a clear favorite over Stephen Lynch in a potential primary contest, and Brown would have an easier path to the Governor's office than a return to the Senate.

Brown starts out leading Markey by just 3 points in a head to head match up, 48/45. 69% of the voters currently undecided voted for Elizabeth Warren in November, while only 17% of them voted for Brown. If those folks ended up voting for the same party that they did in November, Markey would lead Brown by a point. Brown may be starting out at 48%, but it's a very hard path to 50 for him given who the undecideds are.

The comparatively large number of undecided voters who lean Democratic is a function of Markey having 73% name recognition at this point compared to 93% for Brown. Markey starts out as the much stronger potential Democratic candidate- Lynch trails Brown by 9 points at 48/39.

The primary for the special election looks like it will be a blowout. Markey starts out with a 52/19 lead over Lynch. Lynch actually has a net negative favorability rating with Democratic voters- only 27% see him positively to 28% with a negative opinion. Markey, on the other hand, is quite popular with the party base- 58% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of him to only 13% with an unfavorable one.

The Senate race looks like about a 50/50 proposition for Brown at this point. Republican voters, by a 48/38 margin, would actually prefer that Brown run for Governor rather than the Senate. And our polling finds that Brown would start out as a pretty strong favorite for that office.