Snyder's popularity plummets

Just last month when we took a first look at the 2014 landscape we talked about how much Rick Snyder had improved his popularity during his second year in office and how he led a generic Democrat for reelection by 6 points, even as Barack Obama won the state comfortably.

Last week he threw all that out the window.

We now find Snyder as one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. Only 38% of voters approve of him to 56% who disapprove. There are only 2 other sitting Governors we've polled on who have a worse net approval rating than Snyder's -18. He's dropped a net 28 points from our last poll on him, the weekend before the election, when he was at a +10 spread (47/37).

There's not much doubt that it's the right to work law and his embrace of other actions by the Republican legislature that are driving this precipitous drop in Snyder's popularity. Only 41% of voters in the state support the right to work legislation, while 51% are opposed to it. If voters got to decide the issue directly only 40% of them say they would vote to keep the law enacted, while 49% would vote to overturn it. This comes on the heels of voters overturning Snyder's signature emergency managers law last month. The simple reality is that Michigan voters like unions- 52% have a favorable opinion of them to only 33% with a negative one.

Snyder trails every Democrat we tested against him in a hypothetical match up. He's down 49/38 to 2010 opponent Virg Bernero, 47/39 to Congressman Gary Peters, 46/38 to State Senator Gretchen Whitmer, and 44/39 to former Congressman Mark Schauer. The Bernero numbers are what's most striking there. Snyder defeated Bernero by 18 points in 2010, so Bernero's 11 point advantage represents a 29 point reversal. The Democrats all lead Snyder despite having very little name recognition- only 44% of voters are familiar with Bernero, 36% with Peters, 28% with Schauer, and 27% with Whitmer.

The Republicans in the legislature are even more unpopular than Snyder after their spate of last minute legislation.

Only 31% of voters have a favorable opinion of them to 58% with an unfavorable one. Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot in the state by an amazing 56/32 margin, one of the most lopsided generic ballots we've ever seen in any state.

One thing Democrats should probably skip is a Snyder recall attempt. Only 44% of voters say they would vote to recall him, while 48% are opposed to it. If that's where the numbers are at the height of the anger toward Snyder it's likely a nonstarter.

Snyder has shown some resilience already in his term. He was at a 33/50 approval spread just 3 months after taking office and had recovered to the point where he was on pretty solid ground until the actions of the last few weeks. Clearly he and the Republicans in the legislature are hoping that voters will have forgotten about this by 2014, and that they will see a recovery in their standing similar to Scott Walker in Wisconsin. It's worth noting though that Walker was at a 46/52 approval rating in early March of 2011, right after Wisconsin passed its controversial legislation. Snyder's net approval is 12 points worse than that right now. So it remains to be seen whether he can recover again.

One final note- Snyder may need to rebrand- only 32% of Michigan voters consider him to be 'one tough nerd' at this point.

Full results here

Comments

[Jay]

Aaw...you didn't test Michael Moore against Snyder...

[peggy]

My personal opinion Rick Snyder doesn't listen to the people. He does what he wants only. And I can't wait till he is out. I wish he was recalled. He is the worst governor ever in the whole united states.

[pbrower2a]

Add to this -- there were some stringent anti-abortion bills that the State Legislature passed. Snyder and the state legislature have tried to force Michigan to become what it is not. Michigan is not Oklahoma or Alabama. It is more likely to get the meteorological climate of either state than the political climate in view of global warming.

The Michigan state legislature heavily gerrymandered the state to give Republicans an edge. A 56-32 edge to Democrats in the generic ballot could make Michigan as difficult for Republicans as Vermont.

Snyder will likely learn a lesson,and the Michigan state legislature that convenes in January will be less extreme -- but names have been taken.

[Cheryl Calimazzo]

No longer a supporter of Snyder! Worst mistake I have made voting for him! I will vote for a recall!

[R. Morey]

I've never been polled and neither have any of my friends. The power of labor is waning in a traditional labor state, and political adversaries are more willing than anytime in memory to challenge that power. A majority of voters, long ago tired of the same old labor-management battles always pushing things in the wrong direction, elected Rick Snyder as a agent for change. The private sector learned long ago that nobody is "entitled" to live beyond their means. Michigan's entitlement culture is dying,Get used to it.

[sue shores]

First it was "Anybody but Engler", now it's his sorry successor. I urge you to vote for Anybody but Snyder!

[Jay D.]

Most assuredly an unbiased set of polling numbers. I'd love to see the methodology on them. Michiganders voted Snyder in because after eight years of the Canadian from California we needed a more business friendly environment. Unions work for union members, but they are bad for everybody else. Get over it kids. I'm sure the next move on the Democrat play board is to start another recall. There's a reason their symbol is a kicking donkey. If they don't like legislation, rather than vote in one of their own during the next cycle, they become a bunch of kicking, screaming asses. Go tear down another hot dog stand.

[Robert Malin]

I suspect they over reached here. Time for Snyder to get on the red phone to the Koch Brothers.

[KBA2]

It's the anti-abortion zealotry and religious crazies who've taken over the legislature, and Snyder has proven to be WEAK when it comes to defending women's rights! Disgusted with Snyder's administration so far, and most of the Republican legislators are insane. Just wait until the property tax exemption tax-increase hits folks in Michigan this coming year -- with that tax increase and the expiration of the payroll tax cut, my husband and I are looking at a tax increase of 3K.

[Rita]

What is really sad is Snyder doesnt care if he is about stating in office. He IS setting himself up for his big business deals. Thank god I never trusted him, but then again I am proud to be a democrat. God help Michigan!!!

[pbrower2a]

He is now showing himself much more like Rick Scott or Bob McDonnell than like Chris Christie. Too bad. I thought that he might be a new sort of Republican... but by selling out Michigan to out-of-state interests intent on making Michigan a showplace for Hard Right ideology he has probably ensured himself of a place in political infamy.

[Patrick Stuart]

Does anyone remember how Scott Walker's numbers were terrible to begin with, but picked up with time?

I suspect that Snyder's and the legislation's popularity (which are now inseparable) will depend entirely on how well Republicans are able to articulate their talking points. If they do well, as they did in Wisconsin, and frame it as a matter of personal freedom, he will do fine - if only because right to work legislation is usually popular where polled.

If, however, they let the Democrats control the talking points with their skullduggery, he will fail.

Anyway, the next time you hear some liberal go on about how Republicans are controlled by right wing fanatics, remember it's the Democrats who threw a temper tantrum when they no longer had the right to force workers to pay for Obama's reelection campaign.

[Carolyn Fredal]

Rick Snyden wins again. Who is this guy? He set out to destroy the Union, and he has done a great job. Who will represent the mass? As a very large group of people, we need a union to speak for us. The Unions are the reason for the middle class. They are workers who protect the rights for many. When we read the words, We The People, we are the people, and nobody listened. Rick Snyder picked up his little pen and signed the Right To Work Act. He is a disgrace for our State. Power has gone to his head.

[GH]

I usually trust PPP's numbers but what bugs me about this poll was how there wasn't a question that asked "How did you vote for the [whatever] election?" The answers for such a question usually serve as an indication of how accurately the poll represents the voting public, since one can could just compare PPP's numbers to those of the actual election results to see if there is any slant to either left-leaning or right-leaning voters.

To have that type of question missing here makes this survey is a little more untrustworthy than it ought to be, especially when considering that Michigan is still a bit of a swing-state.

[LASOLE]

In this media environment the time to recover from a massive approval blunder is shrinking. We are in an amped up communications cycle, the 2014 mid terms are more important than ever, and both parties have begun. The Govenor was so arrogant in the Lame Duck it upset the pragmatic Michigan voter. That type of Republican is not the Michigan Republican that the state used to be known for.
2010 won't happen again, the Democrats are wide awake on the Great Lakes states from now on.
The advance of hidden radical agendas in Ohio, Michigan,Wisconsin and Pennsylvania taught a number of lessons.

[mary]

Cannnot wait to vote this woman hater out of office.Hang in there 11-4-14 ........not much longer!!!!