McConnell highly unpopular

Mitch McConnell is the most unpopular Senator in the country. Only 37% of Kentucky voters approve of him to 55% disapprove. Both in terms of raw disapproval (55%) and net approval (-18) McConnell has the worst numbers of any of his peers, taking that mantle from Nebraska's Ben Nelson.

McConnell is predictably very unpopular with Democrats (23/73). But his numbers are almost as bad with independents (33/58) and even with Republicans he's well below the 70-80% approval range you would usually expect for a Senator within their own party (59/28).

As unpopular as McConnell is, Kentucky is still a state that voted for Mitt Romney by 23 points last month and because of the political lean of the state, he leads all of the Democrats we tested against him in head to head match ups. 3 of them- Lieutenant Governor Jerry Abramson, Attorney General and 2010 nominee Jack Conway, and actress Ashley Judd- come within 4 points of McConnell at 47/43. Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer trails by 5 at 46/41, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes has a 7 point deficit at 47/40, Congressman John Yarmuth is down 10 at 48/38, former Ambassador Matthew Barzun lags 48/37, and State Auditor Adam Edelen trails by 12 at 48/36.

The reason McConnell does decently well in the head to head match ups despite his poor approval numbers is that even though a lot of Republicans dislike him, most of them would still vote for him in a general election before they would support a Democrat. This is the same phenomenon we saw in Florida and Pennsylvania this year where Bill Nelson and Bob Casey won by solid margins despite middling approval numbers because Democrats that weren't thrilled with them still voted for them. And although independents don't like McConnell they don't like most of the Democrats either, and they support McConnell in every match up we tested.

Ashley Judd is the clear choice of Democratic primary voters to be their candidate in 2014. 29% say she would be the first pick, followed by Abramson at 16%, Conway at 15%, Grimes and Yarmuth at 9%, Fischer at 5%, Edelen at 2%, and Barzun at less than 1%. Judd is a particularly popular choice among young voters and those describing themselves as 'very liberal.'

The primary action in 2014 might not all be on the Democratic side. Among Republican primary voters only 50% say they want McConnell to be their nominee against next time, while 35% would prefer a generic 'more conservative' candidate.

McConnell blows an actual potential primary challenger, newly elected Congressman Thomas Massie, out of the water at 66/18. But the generic numbers do suggest a primary foe could have a shot.

Kentucky is a tough state for Democrats- but given how unpopular McConnell is and the lack of other opportunities for the party to play offense in 2014, this should be a race to watch.

Full results here

Comments

[Dan]

Are you kidding? If MA is stupid enough to elect Elizabeth fake Indian Warren McConnell can win re-election easily. Will this liberal hollywood actress have a chance in a state so conservative Obama won only 3 counties, none by getting over 50% of the vote? Democrat is a dirty word in many parts of the country, and after another 4 years of obama, it will be a dirty word EVERYWHERE

[Jay Thompson]

Why are Democrats have a 15 point advantage in this poll? I mean I never complain about this, but 15 points. Holy cow...

[Scott]

I have a feeling Democrats will be especially motivated to beat McConnell for two reasons: (1) His obstructionism and (2) the fact that this is one of only two or three significant Democratic pickup chances.

[eddiesauls]

The people of KENTUCKY should re-tire Sen:McConnell the man have very poor judgement and tunnel vision.
The man have forgotten he represents a state and the people of that state sent him to WASHINGTON to do their bidding, not to just represent himself. I personally woulod like to see Ashley
Judd replace McConnell. EDDIE

[Jeff]

ummm how can they find a more conservative candidate? McConnell is bat**** crazy,

[TJampel]

KY has a huge Dem registration advantage over Republicans---check it out with the KY SOS or exit polling; hope that answers the questions of the uninformed here.

However, many Dems in KY are "hereditary" Dems---it's a family tradition and exists in name only. Functionally KY is very conservative as reflected by their Senators and Presidential numbers of late; however, note that Conway wasn't blown out by Paul, it was fairly close....and Bashear, a Dem, won pretty easily in the Gov race.

If Judd can bring out the same constituency Conway did and, additionally, user her popularity to bring out younger voters, who otherwise would probably stay home for a midterm election, she can make it close, liberal or not. I'd say that she has a pretty clear path to a Dem nomination, if she decides to run. She definitely looks a lot better than McConnell

Kind "The Tortoise and the Hair" :)

[Jimbo]

What's weird is Kentucky has had a democratic governor every election except for two. But in the national races we have been a 99% republican electoral vote guarantee.

If Judd has any chance against Mitch it's because we've seen her naked before, haha.

[saraserenity]

My personal opinion....No thinking person would elect an actress with no experience and a card carrying liberal of the first class. McConnell may not be the greatest choice but he is well positioned in Washington and Kentucky needs that position.
Judd is well know for her years at the University Of Kentucky and not in the most flattering way. She is a good looking personality who has used her popularity to get lots of attention at KY's basketball games. Ky fans are rabid about their basketball team and enjoy a well know actress bringing more attention to the team. Surely that will not translate to an election of such importance.

[carrol pearson]

he is no doubt the sorry est senater in my 72 years of being in ky i will do my part to get him out who ever runs.

[Geoff Alnutt]

I think Miss McConnell could possibly save his ass/face (I always get them confused) if he'd simply come out, but he won't. Repiglicon. They go down swingin'...but they do'go down'. They must get SO tired of their tired selves.

[Devon Darlington]

McConnell is toxic! He needs to go.

[WahsUpDoc]

Read "Dear Hunting With Jesus", by Joe Bageant. Author pretty much nails it.. why KYians vote Republican. Plus you have Dems who act like REpubs.. and reinforce Repub 'talking points' & run on same platform as Repubs. When you have fake Repubs running against real Repubs, the real Repubs win every time.

[WahsUpDoc]

Kentucky's poverty rate is the fifth highest in the nation, according to new U.S. Census Bureau figures, while the percentage of uninsured Kentuckians has also increased. McConnell has done absolutely nothing to change these figures and to add insult to injury McConnell is working overtime to ensure critical programs that keep the poor alive, are cut!! Why majority of KYians think our Republican US delegation has brought such positive outcomes for KY is beyond me. How in this world could a Democrat inflict more pain and suffering than KY's current Republican members of Congress who've dominated this post for decades?? Perhaps happy days can be had here again in KY if we run a real Democrat like Alben Barkley!!

[Cal]

Yeah, Democrats are not popular in the racist south(where I live, Al. receives $1.66 for every $1) and other states(Kentucky) that recieve more money from the "evil" government than their citizens pay to the feds! In educated states, like Mass.,Cali,NY,Penn. among others, and the liberal NW states, where their citizens pay for under taxed rednecks, democrats rule! Uneducated Americans whinning about taxes with their hands out for federal dollars vote for the teapotty. Sad irony....but the electorate is changing in this country and the gop is on life support and fading fast.

[linnet]

Can anyone remember when there was a Democratic proposal which Mitch McConnell said would "pass over my dead body"? It passed, and that creature from the deep still seems to be (barely) alive. How unfair is this? Loony policies aside, I would deeply appreciate never having to look at this appallingly ugly man ever again.

[JACQUELINE NESBITT]

MITCH THE B***** GOTTA BE DITCHED VERY SOOOOOOOOON. HE IS A MENACE TO CONGRESS AND SOCIETY.

[JACQUELINE NESBITT]

hey mitch you wanted to make sure PRESIDENT OBAMA WAS A ONE TERM ONLY PRESIDENT. HA HA HA LOL. NOW GET READY FOR YOUR LOUSY a*** to be diTched.we gonna make sure you are gone for goodddd guy. huh? YOU THINK THE KOCH BROTHERS WILL HIRE YOU THEN??? HUH??? HUH?? can you hear me???????

[Fern Creeker]

Mitch McConnell is now a multimillionaire. Does anyone remember when he was a regular Joe as Jefferson County Judge? He has become rich in the Senate.
He is the biggest hypocrite in the US Senate bar none. He embarrasses the residents of the Commonwealth. Time for him to go back to live in the Highlands of Louisville.There is a reason McConnell lives in the Highlands....He needs to come clean with KY. Ditch Mitch after 30 years!!!

[Nishant Grover]

It would be nice to see a similar poll include Gov. Beshear in a match up against Sen. McConnell. Even though the governor has not expressed interest in the seat, he has a decent approval rating and could do well in a hypothetical or actual contest.