Polls

Chambliss potentially vulnerable

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Georgia Senator
Saxby Chambliss is theoretically very vulnerable to a primary challenger in
2014: it’s just a question of whether any of the folks interested in taking him
on can run a strong enough campaign to take advantage of that vulnerability.

Only 38% of Republican primary voters say they want Chambliss to be their
nominee next year, compared to 43% who would prefer someone more conservative.
But Chambliss stomps most of the people who’ve shown the most interest in
taking him on. He leads Congressman Paul Broun by a 57/14 margin in a head to
head, has a 52/34 advantage over Congressman Tom Price, and leads former
Secretary of State Karen Handel 52/23.

In terms of the general election the Georgia Senate race is somewhat
reminiscent of the Indiana contest this cycle- if Chambliss is the nominee the
seat is probably safe for the GOP, but if someone far to his right wins the
primary the Democrats might have a chance if everything goes their
way. The only Democrat who comes particularly close to Chambliss is 2002 foe
Max Cleland, who despite being quite popular with a 50/27 favorability rating,
only musters a tie at 45. Chambliss leads former Governor Roy Barnes 48-40,
Congressman John Barrow 50-37, Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed 52-37, and State
Senator Jason Carter 52-34.

If Chambliss was taken out in the primary, it’s likely the Republicans would
end up with a nominee who doesn’t have that going for them. We tested Tom Price
against all the Democrats as well and he would trail Cleland 47-39 and Barnes
46-40 while leading Barrow only 40-38, Reed 43-38, and Carter 42-36. It could
have the potential to be a race if Chambliss does get primaried.

“Saxby Chambliss is in a weak position with Republican voters but right now
most of his potential primary foes have low name recognition,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy. “If one of them mounts a strong campaign
though he’ll be in a lot of trouble.”

PPP surveyed 729 Georgia voters, including 389
usual Republican primary voters, from November 30th to December 2nd.
The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-3.6%, and +/-5.0% for the GOP
primary portion.  This poll was not paid
for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Saxby Chambliss’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Broun?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Erick Erickson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Karen Handel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Price?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Allen West?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Grover Norquist?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%

Q9 Do you think it’s important for politicians to
abide by Grover Norquist’s tax pledge, or not?
Important………………………………………………… 24%
Not important ………………………………………….. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%

Q10 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican nominee for Senate in 2014 to be
Saxby Chambliss or somebody more
conservative than him?
Saxby Chambliss …………………………………….. 38%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q11 Given the choices of Paul Broun, Herman Cain,
Saxby Chambliss, Erick Erickson, Karen
Handel, Tom Price, and Allen West, who would
you most like to see as the Republican
candidate for Senate in 2014?
Paul Broun……………………………………………… 6%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 36%
Saxby Chambliss …………………………………….. 23%
Erick Erickson…………………………………………. 3%
Karen Handel………………………………………….. 4%
Tom Price……………………………………………….. 4%
Allen West………………………………………………. 8%
Someone else…………………………………………. 5%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q12 If the Republican candidates for Senate in
2014 were Saxby Chambliss and Paul Broun,
who would you vote for?
Saxby Chambliss …………………………………….. 57%
Paul Broun……………………………………………… 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%

Q13 If the Republican candidates for Senate in
2014 were Saxby Chambliss and Herman
Cain, who would you vote for?
Saxby Chambliss …………………………………….. 36%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q14 If the Republican candidates for Senate in
2014 were Saxby Chambliss and Erick
Erickson, who would you vote for?
Saxby Chambliss …………………………………….. 51%
Erick Erickson…………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q15 If the Republican candidates for Senate in
2014 were Saxby Chambliss and Karen
Handel, who would you vote for?
Saxby Chambliss …………………………………….. 52%
Karen Handel………………………………………….. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q16 If the Republican candidates for Senate in
2014 were Saxby Chambliss and Tom Price,
who would you vote for?
Saxby Chambliss …………………………………….. 50%
Tom Price……………………………………………….. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q17 If the Republican candidates for Senate in
2014 were Saxby Chambliss and Allen West,
who would you vote for?
Saxby Chambliss …………………………………….. 47%
Allen West………………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%

Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Q20 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1.If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Saxby Chambliss’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Roy Barnes?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Barrow?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Broun?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jason Carter?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Max Cleland?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Erick Erickson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Karen Handel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Price?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kasim Reed?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Allen West?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%

Q13 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Saxby Chambliss and Democrat
Roy Barnes, who would you vote for?
Saxby Chambliss …………………………………….. 48%
Roy Barnes …………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q14 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Saxby Chambliss and Democrat
John Barrow, who would you vote for?
Saxby Chambliss …………………………………….. 50%
John Barrow……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q15 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Saxby Chambliss and Democrat
Jason Carter, who would you vote for?
Saxby Chambliss …………………………………….. 52%
Jason Carter …………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q16 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Saxby Chambliss and Democrat
Max Cleland, who would you vote for?
Saxby Chambliss …………………………………….. 45%
Max Cleland……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q17 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Saxby Chambliss and Democrat
Kasim Reed, who would you vote for?
Saxby Chambliss …………………………………….. 52%
Kasim Reed ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q18 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Tom Price and Democrat Roy
Barnes, who would you vote for?
Tom Price……………………………………………….. 40%
Roy Barnes …………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q19 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Tom Price and Democrat John
Barrow, who would you vote for?
Tom Price……………………………………………….. 40%
John Barrow……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q20 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Tom Price and Democrat Jason
Carter, who would you vote for?
Tom Price……………………………………………….. 42%
Jason Carter …………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q21 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Tom Price and Democrat Max
Cleland, who would you vote for?
Tom Price……………………………………………….. 39%
Max Cleland……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q22 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Tom Price and Democrat Kasim
Reed, who would you vote for?
Tom Price……………………………………………….. 43%
Kasim Reed ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q23 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Grover Norquist?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%

Q24 Do you think it’s important for politicians to
abide by Grover Norquist’s tax pledge, or not?
Important………………………………………………… 16%
Not important ………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%

Q25 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%

Q26 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 12%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 29%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%

Q27 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%

Q28 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%

Q29 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 68%
African-American …………………………………….. 25%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q30 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

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