WA-Gov close, Obama, gay marriage, and marijuana lead

PPP's final Washington poll finds a very close race for Governor, with Democrat Jay Inslee leading Republican Rob McKenna 50-48. Although the margins have been close, Inslee has led all 4 polls we've conducted in Washington since Labor Day.

If Inslee does indeed emerge as the winner on Tuesday it will be because he was able to unify the Democratic base strongly around him. McKenna actually has a 53-42 lead with independents. But for a Republican to win in a blue state like Washington requires a healthy amount of crossover support as well and McKenna's not getting that- Inslee leads 92/6 with Democratic voters. Inslee's 9% of Republicans is actually slightly more than the 6% of Democrats McKenna's getting. Also key to Inslee's slight advantage are a 54/43 advantage with women and a 63/32 lead with young voters.

Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 53-46 in the state. Although Obama's not at any real risk of losing it this is the 5th blue state along with Connecticut, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Oregon  where we've found him doing 10 points worse or more than he did in 2008. That helps explain why the popular vote continues to look so close even as Obama looks like a pretty good bet in the Electoral College.

Washington appears likely to approve gay marriage on Tuesday. 52% of voters say they plan to vote to approve Senate Bill 6239, while 42% are inclined to reject it. We have found that undecided voters on these marriage questions generally end up voting anti-equality but even given that it looks like a favorite for passage. Every age group supports legalizing gay marriage except for seniors, who oppose it 43/51. Voters under 45 support it by a 57/37 margin.

Washington voters are also likely to legalize marijuana on Tuesday. 53% of voters support Initiative 502 to 44% who are opposed. The party breakdown on the gay marriage and marijuana issues is interesting. 34% of Republicans support legalizing marijuana, but only 26% support gay marriage. Democrats though are more supportive of gay marriage (78%) than they are of legalizing marijuana (70%). Marijuana is apparently a less polarizing issue than gay marriage.

Maria Cantwell is headed for an easy reelection against Republican opponent Michael Baumgartner, leading him 57/39. In addition to having 95% of Democrats lined up around her she's taking 16% of the Republican vote and winning independents 54/40.

Full results here

Comments

[Adam Boyd]

The headline makes the Right Wings' brains explode.

[Mary Plante]

I am surprised at the difference between your poll results on the presidential race in my state as compared to the poll conducted by the University of Washington for KCTS TV. They showed Obama up 57-36 among likely voters in the second wave of their poll. Yet the UW poll came up with very similar results in the governor's race showing Inslee up 49-46 over McKenna.

I'm wondering if the fact that you conduct a landline only survey and the UW is a live caller poll with 30%+ cell participation accounts for the difference in the presidential results.

BTW at the GOTV center where I volunteered nearly half of our calls were to voters who only had cell phones.

[Dee]

Sure looks to be hard to believe. So this is saying most like the idea of getting high and gays.

[Phonebanshee]

Dee, from here in Seattle, it's amazing that _anyone_ would vote against marriage equality or ending Prohibition.

One other thing about WA - don't forget we're a sensible state with 100% vote by mail. I suspect that you're polling people who've already sent in their ballots. But that also means that it's strange to talk about "Tuesday" - that's just the deadline to put the ballot in the mail, so it'll be a few days after Tuesday before all the results arrive.

[Eddie]

Um, the same-sex marriage question is identified as Referendum 74 on the ballot.

[SC]

A referendum is essentially the people voting to veto or accept a law passed by the legislature. That is why the article references Senate Bill 6239.