PPP's final Washington poll finds a very close race for Governor, with Democrat Jay Inslee leading Republican Rob McKenna 50-48. Although the margins have been close, Inslee has led all 4 polls we've conducted in Washington since Labor Day.
If Inslee does indeed emerge as the winner on Tuesday it will be because he was able to unify the Democratic base strongly around him. McKenna actually has a 53-42 lead with independents. But for a Republican to win in a blue state like Washington requires a healthy amount of crossover support as well and McKenna's not getting that- Inslee leads 92/6 with Democratic voters. Inslee's 9% of Republicans is actually slightly more than the 6% of Democrats McKenna's getting. Also key to Inslee's slight advantage are a 54/43 advantage with women and a 63/32 lead with young voters.
Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 53-46 in the state. Although Obama's not at any real risk of losing it this is the 5th blue state along with Connecticut, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Oregon where we've found him doing 10 points worse or more than he did in 2008. That helps explain why the popular vote continues to look so close even as Obama looks like a pretty good bet in the Electoral College.
Washington appears likely to approve gay marriage on Tuesday. 52% of voters say they plan to vote to approve Senate Bill 6239, while 42% are inclined to reject it. We have found that undecided voters on these marriage questions generally end up voting anti-equality but even given that it looks like a favorite for passage. Every age group supports legalizing gay marriage except for seniors, who oppose it 43/51. Voters under 45 support it by a 57/37 margin.
Maria Cantwell is headed for an easy reelection against Republican opponent Michael Baumgartner, leading him 57/39. In addition to having 95% of Democrats lined up around her she's taking 16% of the Republican vote and winning independents 54/40.
Full results here