Quinn extremely unpopular, Madigan would start out favored

If Pat Quinn is the Democratic candidate for Governor of Illinois in 2014 Democrats may have a hard time holding onto the office. Only 25% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing to 64% who disapprove, making him the most unpopular Governor PPP has polled on anywhere in the country this year.

Quinn would trail in hypothetical match ups against Republican State Senator Kirk Dillard (44/37) and Treasurer Dan Rutherford (43/39). He would top Congressman Aaron Schock only narrowly, 40/39. Quinn's unpopularity puts the Republicans in a position where they could win despite the fact that none of them are very well known- Rutherford has 39% name recognition, and both Dillard and Schock are at 35%.

Quinn may not even make it to the general election though. Even among Democratic primary voters he has just a 40% approval rating, with 43% of voters disapproving of him. In a hypothetical head to head with Bill Daley, Quinn would trail 37-34. And in a contest against Attorney General Lisa Madigan, Quinn would start out at a 64/20 deficit.

Madigan is really the x factor in this race. She's a popular figure with 48% of voters rating her positively to 32% with an unfavorable opinion. She's very well regarded within her own party (66/15), but she's also seen favorably by a higher than normal 24% of Republicans. In addition to having a big lead over Quinn, Madigan would also be very strong in the general. She holds leads of 9 points over both Dillard and Rutherford at 46-37 and would have an 8 point advantage over Schock at 46-38.

If Madigan doesn't throw her hat in the ring the race could be close even if Quinn was out of the picture. Daley, who has just 36% statewide name recognition at this point, would find himself starting out in a tight race with any of the Republicans. Schock would be coming from behind against Daley 40-35, but both Dillard (36-34) and Rutherford (38-37) have small leads against him.

The race on the Republican side is wide open, given the relative anonymity of all the hopefuls. 19% say they would like Rutherford to be the candidate, 18% say Schock is their first choice, 14% go for 2010 nominee Bill Brady, 12% choose Dillard, 8% go for departing Congressman Joe Walsh, and 7% pick businessman Bruce Rauner. Even when you narrow it to just a three person field there's not a lot of clarity- 27% say they'd like Rutherford to be the candidate, 26% pick Schock, and 17% go for Dillard. There's a gender gap- Schock belts Rutherford with women, 29/23, but only 23% of men prefer Schock to 30% for Rutherford.

There are a lot of if's in this race right now- if Madigan runs, she's the favorite in both the primary and the general. If she doesn't and Daley knocks Quinn out in the primary, then the general election would likely start out as a toss up. And if Quinn somehow survives to be the Democratic nominee the GOP will start out favored in the general election if he doesn't turn his numbers around- but Quinn won as the under dog last time around so he probably shouldn't be counted out.

Full results here

Comments

[ZLS_Politics]

Great analysis on the race, and thanks to the best USA pollster PPP, and i say this as a conservative republican, i'm just not out of touch as most conservatives are these days so i acknowledge your accuracy.

[Matt]

Please test fav/unfav on Georgia Agricultre Commissioner Gary Black for 2014.

[Mary Elizabeth Danuser]

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