Obama up 8 in Minnesota, amendments may be going down

PPP's final Minnesota poll of the 2012 election cycle finds Barack Obama leading comfortably, 53-45. We've conducted four surveys of the state since Labor Day and found Obama leading by a margin in the 7-10 point range on each of them.

Obama doesn't have great approval numbers in the state, with 49% of voters giving him good marks to 45% who disapprove. But voters aren't big on Romney either with 43% rating him favorably to 49% who have a negative view of him. Obama's winning thanks in particular to large margins with women (58/39) and voters under 30 (71/27).

The more interesting findings on our final Minnesota poll deal with the state's high profile amendments to ban gay marriage and require voter identification. We find both narrowly trailing. 45% of voters say they'll vote for the gay marriage ban, compared to 52% who are opposed to it. And 46% say they'll support the voter ID amendment to 51% who are opposed. Public opinion has shifted against both of these measures in the last month. In early October voters were only against the marriage ban 46/49 and they supported the voter ID question 51/43.

The marriage amendment is trailing because of a massive generational divide. Seniors support it by a 57/40 margin but every other age group opposes it, including a 36/62 margin against it among voters under 30. Republicans support it (79%) and Democrats oppose it (76%) in almost equal numbers, but independents tip the balance by opposing it 41/55.

The reason the voter ID amendment now appears to be in serious trouble is that Democrats (82%) are just as opposed to it as Republicans (82%) are supportive of it. We've found Republicans strongly supportive of the concept all year, but Democrats have moved sharply against it from 36% support in June to now just 14%. And independents have shifted over the last five months from being very much in favor (58/35) to evenly divided (49/49).

The Minnesota Senate race is no contest, with Amy Klobuchar leading Kurt Bills 62-32. She's one of the most popular Senators in the country with a 60/26 approval spread, and Bills still has only 50% name recognition even with just 48 hours remaining before the election.

Full results here

Comments

[James]

TIL some guy named Kurt Bills is running against Amy Klobuchar.

[Mike]

Final PPP poll says 52% will vote against Amendment 1. Actual result: 52.56% vote against, including blank ballots, 52% vote against, not including blank ballots.

PPP absolutely does the best polling on this issue.