PPP's final poll of the cycle in Michigan finds Democrats headed for victory in both the Presidential and Senate races. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 52-46, consistent with the 6-8 point lead we've found for him in all of our polling since the Republican convention. Debbie Stabenow leads Pete Hoekstra 55-42 in a race that never really got competitive.
Mitt Romney would have had to do 2 things to win Michigan: run up the score with independents and get a decent amount of crossover support from Democratic voters. But he's done neither. Obama is leading 49/46 with independents. And although there's very little crossover voting occurring, his share of Republicans (8%) is actually higher than the 7% of Democrats Romney is getting.
Obama is winning thanks to a 58/41 lead with women, an 84/11 advantage with African Americans, and a 60/37 spread with young voters. He's also cutting his losses with white voters, trailing Romney only 52/48 with them.
Pete Hoekstra's favorability numbers slipped under water after his controversial Super Bowl ad and never recovered. Only 36% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 41% with a negative one. Stabenow has a solid 49/38 approval spread and is out running Obama because she's winning over 15% of Republicans and has a 53/41 advantage with independents.
Ballot initiatives to enshrine collective bargaining rights in the constitution (35/55) and to create a state renewable energy standard (31/62) both appear to be headed for pretty lopsided defeats. In both cases Democrats support the amendments (58/26 on collective bargaining and 55/36 on renewable energy), but Republicans oppose them by much wider margins (15/79 on collective bargaining and 9/85 on renewable energy.)
Full results here
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