PPP's final polls of the 2012 election cycle in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin find Barack Obama favored to win both states, although by margins a good deal closer than he won them by in 2008. In Pennsylvania Obama leads 52-46, while in Wisconsin his advantage is 51-48.
The same basic formula that pushed Obama to victory in 2008 is what has him favored to win both of these states again. In Pennsylvania he's up big with women (57/42), African Americans (90/8), and voters under 30 (66/34). It's a similar story in Wisconsin where he's up 54/44 with women, 63/32 with non-white voters, and 55/45 with young people. Obama also has an advantage in both states with independent voters- it's 49/45 in Pennsylvania and 57/40 in Wisconsin.
Democrats are also favored to hold on to the Senate seats in both of these states. In Wisconsin's open contest Tammy Baldwin leads Republican foe Tommy Thompson 51-48, thanks to a 55/41 advantage with independents. Voters aren't particularly in love with either candidate. Thompson has a 44/48 favorability rating and Baldwin's is 44/50. But it looks like the Democratic lean of the state might put her over the top.
In Pennsylvania incumbent Bob Casey leads challenger Tom Smith 52-44, aided by 15% crossover support from Republicans and a 49/41 advantage with independents. Casey's approval is back in positive territory at 42/41 after being in the red on several recent polls and despite the millions Smith has put into the race voters still aren't that enamored with him- he has a 38% favorability rating with 40% of voters giving him negative marks.
Full results here