PPP's final polls in Ohio and Virginia find Barack Obama ahead in both states, 52/47 in Ohio and 51/47 in Virginia. PPP has conducted four polls in each of these states over the last three weeks and has found an average lead of 3.75 points for Obama in Ohio and an average advantage of 3.5 points for him in Virginia.
In Ohio Obama's already built up a large lead during the early voting period. He's up 60/39 with those who already cast their ballots. Romney's ahead 51/48 with people who plan to vote on election day but he's going to need a much wider margin than that to take the state.
Obama's winning thanks to leads of 54/44 with women, 86/11 with African Americans, and 61/33 with voters under 30. And although he trails Romney with independents (49/47) and white voters (51/47), he's holding Romney to margins well below what he would need to win those groups.
It's a similar story in Virginia. Obama's up 56/43 with women and 92/8 with African Americans and he's holding Romney to a 58/40 advantage with whites, which is below what we've generally been finding for him nationally recently. When you combine Obama's relative strength among white voters with Virginia being one of the more racially diverse states in the country it's the formula for a lead.
Democrats are also well positioned to win the US Senate races in each of these states. Tim Kaine leads George Allen 52/46 in Virginia's open seat race and Sherrod Brown's up 54/44 for reelection against Josh Mandel. It's a similar story in both states. Voters like the Democratic candidates- Brown has a 48/43 approval rating and Kaine has a 50/40 favorability rating. And they don't much care for the Republican contenders- Mandel's favorability is 36/50 and Allen's is 42/48.
There is one piece of good news for Republicans in these polls- Ohio's proposed independent redistricting commission is headed for defeat with 39% of voters planning to support it compared to 49% who are opposed.
Full results here
Your polls are quite humorous. What are you going to say when Romney wins both OH and VA?
Posted by: commonlogic | November 04, 2012 at 09:26 PM
Why do you continue to use 2008 turnout models that research shows isnt going to happen this election?
Posted by: Chris | November 04, 2012 at 09:29 PM
One more thing. It appears you think democrats will have an even greater turnout than 2008.
Posted by: commonlogic | November 04, 2012 at 09:29 PM
PPP missed Scott Walker's winning margin by 4%.
Posted by: Iska Waran | November 04, 2012 at 10:15 PM
Your poll is so skewed. If it isn't than there is some serious cheating going on in Ohio. I as an Ohioan will challenge the results in Ohio. I have seen first hand the overwhelming support for Romney in Ohio. Typical Democrat strongholds have Romney signs all over. 32,000 people turned out for Romney Friday night in West Chester. Ollama only roused 200 with Stevie Wonder in Cleveland on Friday. His largest crowd was in Lima and there were less than 2000 people there. Springfield was pitiful, so low of a turnout no one wanted to report it. Tonight in Cincinnati he was placed in a smaller arena, 13,000 capacity, rather than the huge Nippert Field he spoke in 2008. Romney had over 32,000 show up in Pennsylvannia....QUITE a dramatic difference people. Romney is on fire, and by all means has this election.
Your liberal leanings favoring Ollama may just turn out to give him a big surprise in Ohio. Awwwww.....what a let down for him.
Posted by: L Hesler | November 04, 2012 at 10:47 PM
+8 Democrat oversample in Ohio
+5 Democrat oversample in Virginia (19% black sample? +10% women sample too?)
When you apply reality to these polls...
Posted by: Rain McManis | November 04, 2012 at 11:29 PM
Will you conservatives be back to kiss the ring when you're proven wrong? Or will you disappear just like in 2008?
Posted by: Bryan | November 05, 2012 at 06:27 AM
If Obama loses this election, you can blame/thank the Right for bamboozling him. How is it ethical that an entire news network questions the President’s citizenship for four years to create doubt in voters while a fringe element of the far right demonizes and degrades him? Most of this is financed by the rich who want to keep their stranglehold on the flow of wealth in our country. Watch the white hands apply the Blackface to our first African-American President at http://dregstudiosart.blogspot.com/2012/10/bamboozling-obama.html
Posted by: Brandt Hardin | November 05, 2012 at 05:09 PM
Looks like PPP was right after all.
Posted by: Mike Forbess | November 07, 2012 at 08:58 AM
I wonder if PPP can give us some odds on hearing apologies from commonlogic, Chris, L Hesler, and Rain McManis?
Posted by: Johnny Mack | November 07, 2012 at 04:01 PM