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November 02, 2012

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Lee

could you poll in Maryland to see how the marriage law is polling ?

David

8"this is something more like a 52/48 advantage and at that point it can go either way."

What does "and at that point it can go either way" mean? Are you talking about the margin of error or something else? I'd appreciate a little clarity.

Historically, PPP nails these marriage referenda once the undecideds are allocated to the anti-gay side. This was the case in CA, ME and NC. Based on this experience, no further margin of error adjustment should be assumed for the anti-gay side. Further no other poll has shown the yes side going below 50, which would further militate against any other adjustment in favor of the no side. I take this poll to indicate a 52-48 result, assuming no shifts in the few days between the date of this poll and Election Day.

David

Dustin, can you please respond to my question? What do you mean when you say that, after the undecideds are moved to the "no" side, it could still "go either way"?

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