PPP's final Maine poll of the 2012 election cycle finds Barack Obama leading the state 55-42. Romney has gained 3 points since PPP's last look at the state in mid-September, but he hasn't been able to get too close because Obama's support has remained steady at 55%.
Obama has a 50% approval rating in the state with 44% of voters disapproving of him. You might expect the contest in Maine to be closer based on those numbers, but Mitt Romney is not getting any New England home field advantage- only 40% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 53% with a negative one.
Obama's big lead comes thanks to a 55/39 advantage with independents. There's a massive gender gap in the state with Obama up 60/37 with women while the candidates are tied among men at 49.
If there is any intrigue with the Presidential race in Maine it's that the race is relatively close in the 2nd Congressional District. Obama leads Romney only 51/46 there with most of his statewide margin coming thanks to a 59/39 lead in the 1st District. It's a long shot for Romney but his chances of picking up that electoral vote are better than his prospects in places that have received more attention this week such as Michigan and Minnesota.
It looks like Angus King will be the next Senator from Maine. He's at 50% to 36% for Charlie Summers and 12% for Cynthia Dill. King has solidified his position since our last poll in September when he led Summers just 43-35. King's increased his share of the Democratic vote from 58% to 68% since that survey, he's ahead of Summers 57/31 with independents, and he's winning over 21% of the Republican vote.
Maine's referendum to legalize gay marriage is leading for passage by a 52/45 margin, numbers virtually unchanged from 52/44 in our last survey. What we've found historically with these gay marriage ballot measures though is that undecided voters tend to end up voting anti-gay so if I had to guess this is something more like a 52/48 advantage and at that point it can go either way- this is likely to be a pretty close vote.
There is an enormous gender gap on the marriage issue with women planning to vote for equal rights by a 59/37 margin, while men oppose them by a 55/43 spread. 75% of Democrats support the proposal, 75% of Republicans oppose it, and independents lean slightly in favor of it 51/44. Every age group supports it except for seniors, who are opposed 51/46. Voters under 30 unsurprisingly give it the widest support at 57/34.
Full results here
could you poll in Maryland to see how the marriage law is polling ?
Posted by: Lee | November 02, 2012 at 11:27 PM
8"this is something more like a 52/48 advantage and at that point it can go either way."
What does "and at that point it can go either way" mean? Are you talking about the margin of error or something else? I'd appreciate a little clarity.
Historically, PPP nails these marriage referenda once the undecideds are allocated to the anti-gay side. This was the case in CA, ME and NC. Based on this experience, no further margin of error adjustment should be assumed for the anti-gay side. Further no other poll has shown the yes side going below 50, which would further militate against any other adjustment in favor of the no side. I take this poll to indicate a 52-48 result, assuming no shifts in the few days between the date of this poll and Election Day.
Posted by: David | November 03, 2012 at 07:34 AM
Dustin, can you please respond to my question? What do you mean when you say that, after the undecideds are moved to the "no" side, it could still "go either way"?
Posted by: David | November 03, 2012 at 07:41 PM