PPP's final polls of the cycle in Florida and North Carolina suggest that they may be the closest states in the country this year. In Florida Obama leads 50/49, but to be more specific 473 respondents chose Obama and 472 picked Romney. It's a similar story in North Carolina- the candidates are tied at 49 there based on rounded numbers, but if you break it out to decimal points Romney's up 49.4% to 49.2% with 457 respondents having chosen him to 455 for Obama. Both states are likely in for a long night on Tuesday.
PPP has conducted 4 polls in Florida over the last three weeks and found a 1 point race every time- Obama has been up slightly twice and Romney has been up slightly twice. There is a massive generational gap in the state with Romney leading 61/38 among seniors while Obama leads within every other age group. The Paul Ryan selection didn't hurt Romney with Florida seniors as some had thought it might. Obama's up 52/47 with women, 53/47 with Hispanics, and 91/9 with African Americans while Romney has a 53/47 edge with men and a 59/40 one with white voters.
Our last three polls in North Carolina have all come out as ties. Barack Obama has built up a 54/45 lead during the early voting period, but Mitt Romney's ahead 57/41 with those planning to vote on election day. Romney is making up for the registration advantage Democrats in the state have with a 55/40 lead among independent voters. Beyond that the race pretty much breaks down as you would expect. Obama is up with women (54/46), African Americans (87/12), and young voters (55/42). Romney is winning with men (54/44), whites (62/37), and seniors (58/41).
In the Florida Senate race Bill Nelson is in good position to be reelected, leading Republican foe Connie Mack IV 51/46. Nelson's lead has bounced around in the 4-7 point range in our polling over the last few weeks. Floridians narrowly approve of the job he's doing, 44/41. They don't care for Mack, with 38% rating him favorably and 43% holding an unfavorable opinion. Nelson's up 56/40 with independents.
Pat McCrory continues to be favored in the North Carolina Governor's race, although the contest has tightened in the closing stretch. He's at 50% to 43% for Walter Dalton and 4% for Libertarian Barbara Howe. Dalton's moving closer because he's gone from 62% of the Democratic vote to 73% in the last week. Still McCrory's 58/29 advantage with independents and the fact that he's winning 21% of Democrats puts him in a very strong position. Outgoing Governor Bev Perdue's approval rating is 31% with 54% of voters disapproving of her and those numbers don't create a positive climate for electing another Democratic Governor- not a lot Dalton could do about that. The contest for Lieutenant Governor in North Carolina continues to be a dead heat with Republican Dan Forest at 45% to 44% for Democrat Linda Coleman.
Full results here