PPP's final polls of the cycle in Florida and North Carolina suggest that they may be the closest states in the country this year. In Florida Obama leads 50/49, but to be more specific 473 respondents chose Obama and 472 picked Romney. It's a similar story in North Carolina- the candidates are tied at 49 there based on rounded numbers, but if you break it out to decimal points Romney's up 49.4% to 49.2% with 457 respondents having chosen him to 455 for Obama. Both states are likely in for a long night on Tuesday.
PPP has conducted 4 polls in Florida over the last three weeks and found a 1 point race every time- Obama has been up slightly twice and Romney has been up slightly twice. There is a massive generational gap in the state with Romney leading 61/38 among seniors while Obama leads within every other age group. The Paul Ryan selection didn't hurt Romney with Florida seniors as some had thought it might. Obama's up 52/47 with women, 53/47 with Hispanics, and 91/9 with African Americans while Romney has a 53/47 edge with men and a 59/40 one with white voters.
Our last three polls in North Carolina have all come out as ties. Barack Obama has built up a 54/45 lead during the early voting period, but Mitt Romney's ahead 57/41 with those planning to vote on election day. Romney is making up for the registration advantage Democrats in the state have with a 55/40 lead among independent voters. Beyond that the race pretty much breaks down as you would expect. Obama is up with women (54/46), African Americans (87/12), and young voters (55/42). Romney is winning with men (54/44), whites (62/37), and seniors (58/41).
In the Florida Senate race Bill Nelson is in good position to be reelected, leading Republican foe Connie Mack IV 51/46. Nelson's lead has bounced around in the 4-7 point range in our polling over the last few weeks. Floridians narrowly approve of the job he's doing, 44/41. They don't care for Mack, with 38% rating him favorably and 43% holding an unfavorable opinion. Nelson's up 56/40 with independents.
Pat McCrory continues to be favored in the North Carolina Governor's race, although the contest has tightened in the closing stretch. He's at 50% to 43% for Walter Dalton and 4% for Libertarian Barbara Howe. Dalton's moving closer because he's gone from 62% of the Democratic vote to 73% in the last week. Still McCrory's 58/29 advantage with independents and the fact that he's winning 21% of Democrats puts him in a very strong position. Outgoing Governor Bev Perdue's approval rating is 31% with 54% of voters disapproving of her and those numbers don't create a positive climate for electing another Democratic Governor- not a lot Dalton could do about that. The contest for Lieutenant Governor in North Carolina continues to be a dead heat with Republican Dan Forest at 45% to 44% for Democrat Linda Coleman.
Full results here
If Florida is so close like these 'polls' try to claim why is it that Rick Scott blocking, restricting the rights of people to vote?
Posted by: Jeff | November 05, 2012 at 02:27 AM