Polls

Romney takes small NC lead

| Tom Jensen


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Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s newest North Carolina poll finds Mitt Romney taking a small lead in the
state, 49-47. The candidates were tied at 48 two weeks ago. This now makes 26
out of 27 times polling the race in North Carolina that PPP has found Obama and
Romney within three points of each other.

Romney’s seen the same kind of improvement in his image with North Carolina
voters that we’ve found for him in most places since last week’s debate. 49% of
voters now have a favorable opinion of him to 46% with an unfavorable one,
reversing what was a 46/49 spread on our last poll. Obama’s approval numbers
have barely changed- 48% of voters approve of him and 50% disapprove, compared
to 48/49 last time. Romney’s gains in North Carolina have more to do with him
becoming more appealing than Obama faltering.

Romney’s ahead for two key reasons: he’s up 63/33 with white voters and he
has a 54/40 advantage with independents. A 30 point win among white voters is
basically the cut line for whether Romney can take the state back or not- we’ve
generally found him slightly below that this year, but at least for now he’s
there. The large registration advantage Democrats have in North Carolina means
that for Romney to take the state he not only needs to win independents, but
needs to win them by a double digit margin. He’s meeting the mark on that front
now as well.

North Carolinians think by a 46/42 margin that Joe Biden was the winner of
the Vice Presidential debate on Thursday. In spite of that they have a higher
opinion of Paul Ryan (48/45 favorability) than they do of Biden (47/47).

“North Carolina continues to look like one of the closest states in the
country,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But things are
trending a little bit in Mitt Romney’s direction and Obama needs a strong
performance Tuesday night to get things going back in the other direction.”

PPP surveyed 1,084 likely
North Carolina voters from October 12th to 14th. The margin of error
for the survey is +/-3.0%.  This poll was not
paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%

Q4 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q5 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of Libya?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q8 Who do you think won the Vice Presidential
debate: Joe Biden or Paul Ryan?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 46%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q9 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 68%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 21%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 12%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Honey Boo Boo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%

Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Q16 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 13%
336………………………………………………………… 20%
704………………………………………………………… 19%
828………………………………………………………… 15%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 21%

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